Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday October 26 to Friday October 30, 2026
Total Upgrades: 19
Total Downgrades: 14
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 65.23%; Hold 27.94%; Sell 6.83%
For the week ending Friday, 30 October 2026, the seven stockbrokers monitored daily by FNArena issued nineteen ratings upgrades and fourteen downgrades for individual ASX-listed companies.
September-quarter trading updates, largely released at AGMs, drove most changes in the tables below, with percentage falls in consensus target prices and earnings forecasts exceeding increases for a second consecutive week.
While the trend in rating upgrades versus downgrades remains positive post the August results season, the trend in earnings forecasts remains negative which, history suggests, creates a formidable headwind for the share market overall.
Having said this, the local market has experienced relative buoyant conditions in recent weeks as global sentiment towards the AI trade soured.
One of the recent standouts in the local market is Data#3 whose 17% rise in average target price will also feature in an article published this week.
The IT reseller and services provider upgraded profit guidance twice in October, signalling operational momentum is currently above-average strong.
Automotive parts supplier Bapcor follows with a 14% rise in its target after reaffirming FY27 guidance, building on a better-than-forecast FY26 earnings release in August.
Management’s guidance pointed to modest revenue growth; profit remains heavily weighted towards the second half.
The turnaround to-date is seen as largely priced in amid weak consumer spending and headwinds in New Zealand. That market contributed 8% of FY26 revenue.
Strong operating cash flow and debt of $116m has reduced equity-raising risk, according to Morgan Stanley which raised its target to 60c from 28c but retained an Underweight rating pending sustained execution (there have been more than a few disappointments in years gone past).
Bapcor shares have recovered from July’s 35.5c low to 85c but remain well below the $2.25 from a year earlier.
Neutral-rated Citi raised its target by 25% to 86c as confidence in the company’s turnaround initiatives improved.
Data#3 also features with a 14% rise in average earnings forecast, behind BlueScope Steel, Whitehaven Coal and Karoon Energy, respectively up 16%, 15% and 15%.
Raising hopes for greater shareholder returns, an earnings upgrade by BlueScope Steel highlighted exposure to a tightening US steel market https://fnarena.com/2026/10/28/bluescope-investors-eye-bigger-cash-return/
Whitehaven Coal also began FY27 strongly, supported by higher coal prices, though looming production disruptions and seasonal factors point to challenges ahead https://fnarena.com/2026/10/28/divided-views-post-whitehavens-q1-performance/
Buy-rated Citi raised its Karoon Energy target by 6% to $1.90, citing improving execution and oil-price support for cash generation despite equipment and freight headwinds.
September-quarter production of 2.3mmboe beat Ord Minnett’s expectations, while revenue broadly met forecasts. This broker cut its target by -30c to $2.20 on a higher risk-free rate and retained a Buy rating.
Automotive products manufacturer and distributor Amotiv leads average target price falls with a -23% decline.
First-quarter like-for-like revenue fell -5% amid weaker vehicle sales and Thai supply disruptions.
UBS noted FY27 revenue and underlying earnings guidance shifted from modest growth to a decline of up to -5%, excluding Vietnamese filter manufacturer VAFI.
Cost savings, increased VAFI ownership and a proposed 5% buyback partly offset consumer pressures, the broker explained.
UBS views downside risks as largely priced in, while Macquarie highlighted effective pricing and cost control supporting gross margins.
AI medical software provider Artrya’s target fell around -20% following regulatory delays and slower customer onboarding.
Buy-rated Bell Potter cut FY27–FY29 revenue forecasts by -47.4%, -33.1% and -18.8%, respectively. A higher discount rate pulled its target to $4.30 from $6.00.
Cash of around $67m is seen as providing roughly ten quarters of funding.
In contrast, Ord Minnett welcomed a “step-change” in Salix platform volumes, retaining a Buy rating and $7 target.
Following a weak first-quarter update and lower earnings margin guidance, the average target for Integral Diagnostics fell by -17%. While this company's track record is not as negative as Bapcor's, Integral Diagnostics has delivered its own set of disappointments since the inclusion of Capitol Health in late 2024.
Retaining an Outperform rating, Macquarie cut its target by -16% to $2.80, noting staff shortages and labour costs continue to weigh on growth and margins.
Productivity, staffing and procurement changes offer recovery potential, the analyst suggested, while the current strategic review of the New Zealand business provides a near-term catalyst.
Brokers also reduced respective targets for BNPL provider Zip Co and data centre builder NextDC by -14% and -11%.
Zip Co’s fraud losses and rising US bad debts have rattled investors, but accelerating growth and unchanged guidance kept analysts positive: https://fnarena.com/2026/10/29/fraud-fallout-analysts-back-zip/
NextDC’s shock profit warning the previous week highlighted Australia’s exposure to the global pressures shaping data centre development and the AI infrastructure build-out: https://fnarena.com/2026/10/26/nextdcs-collision-with-the-real-world/
Turning to declines in earnings forecasts, here Telix Pharmaceuticals suffered a -22% fall, the largest downgrade in the FNArena database for a stock in the industrial space.
Ord Minnett cut its target by -$3.20 to $18.80, retaining a Buy rating after weaker September-quarter revenue, increased PSMA imaging competition and regulatory delays.
Revenue guidance remained at the upper end of US$950m–US$970m.
Citi highlighted stronger fourth-quarter PSMA sales and early Pixclara pricing, placing Telix on a 90-day Positive Catalyst Watch ahead of Zircaix’s potential year-end FDA resubmission.
This broker’s Buy rating and a $31 target were retained.
Weak quarterly updates weighed heavily on resource earnings forecasts.
Copper producer Sandfire Resources suffered the largest cut, yet Morgans and UBS upgraded to Buy following share price weakness.
Perseus Mining’s target rose nearly 5%, with Macquarie and Ord Minnett also upgrading to Buy.
Despite softer September-quarter production, Ord Minnett sees stronger cash generation and earnings momentum ahead.
Wildcat Resources and Atlas Arteria recorded falling consensus targets despite rising earnings forecasts.
Bell Potter cut Wildcat’s target to 47c from $1.00 following weaker lithium pricing projections.
Macquarie remains constructive on lithium pricing, arguing inventory drawdowns suggest tighter physical supply than current prices imply.
Both reviewed the definitive feasibility study for Wildcat’s wholly owned Tabba Tabba lithium project in Western Australia’s Pilbara, with Bell Potter highlighting strong economics supporting several funding options.
A final investment decision is targeted for the second quarter of 2027, with production potentially starting in early 2029.
For Atlas Arteria, UBS cut its target by -80c to $3.70 and resumed coverage with a Neutral rating following a period of research restriction.
Citi reduced its target by -93c to $3.87, retaining a Neutral rating as distribution pressures balanced share price weakness and a potential IFM Investors bid.
Additional French taxes threaten distributions from 30.82%-owned APRR, Atlas Arteria’s main cash source.
Citi forecasts FY27 distributions will fall around -23% to a sustainable 31c before stabilising, with approval for higher Dulles Greenway tolls offering upside.
Elsewhere, Woolworths Group received ratings downgrades from Ord Minnett and Morgans following its first-quarter FY27 update, despite Australian Food sales growth of around 6% providing a positive surprise.
Ord Minnett cut its target by -$3 to $37, citing earnings risks and a valuation of 31 times FY27 earnings. Morgans also anticipates limited upside, only lifting its target by 5c to $43.55.
While value, loyalty and private-label initiatives supported growth, analysts are questioning whether growth momentum can be sustained for Australia's largest network of supermarkets.
Stay tuned for an in-depth account of analysts' views in an article published this week.
Buy ratings now represent 65.23% of all ratings in the FNArena database, up from 64.78% in the prior week.
Neutral/Hold ratings take up 27.94%, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 6.83%.
Upgrade
AURELIA METALS LIMITED ((AMI)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/0/0
Aurelia Metals' 1Q27 production, with gold output of 16.2koz, beat consensus by 11% and was its highest quarterly production in around 18 months.
Macquarie comments both silver and copper production also beat expectations by 44% and 51%, respectively.
Gold production reached 29% of the FY27 guidance midpoint, leaving the company comfortably on track to meet its full-year targets. Cash stood at $161m with no debt, while planned upgrades to the Peak processing plant remain on schedule for commissioning in 2Q27.
Flooding at the Federation mine impacted underground development, although additional water management capacity is expected to restore development rates by 3Q27. The analyst raised FY27 EPS forecasts by 11%.
Macquarie upgrades the stock to Outperform from Neutral due to recent share price weakness and raises its target price by 4% to $0.55.
AUSTAL LIMITED ((ASB)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 4/0/0
Austal expects growth in its Australasian business to exceed 30% in FY27, well above Bell Potter's estimates. No guidance has been provided for the US, which the broker understands is because of ongoing divestment discussions.
On the Hanwha bid, the negotiations are proceeding under the original parameters.
Industry feedback suggests the company has exceeded expectations in executing complex shipbuilding agreements over the past 12 months. The main risk is labour, with Austal looking to recruit 500 people in FY27 to support construction of the LCH.
At an implied EV/EBIT multiple of 8-11x, the broker believes the Australasian business offers attractive value to those seeking high-growth defence exposure. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold. Target is raised to $5.50 from $4.70.
BHP GROUP LIMITED ((BHP)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/4/0
Morgans upgrades BHP Group to Hold from Trim with a higher target price of $57.90 from $55.30. Although the broker now prefers Rio Tinto ((RIO)) on relative valuation grounds.
Iron ore remains challenged, with China's pig iron production down 3% year to September, while iron ore imports rose 4.1% despite weakening steel demand. Port inventories have reached near record levels, reducing the need for seasonal restocking.
Increasing Simandou supply adds further pressure, prompting Morgans to lower its 12-month iron ore price forecasts below consensus and abandon expectations for a recovery to US$97/t in the March 2027 quarter.
Copper fundamentals remain considerably stronger, with prices around US$6.50/lb, up approximately 40% y/y, despite recent weakness.
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