Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates A2M as Hold (3) -

a2 Milk Co offered updated FY26 guidance with revenue at NZ$1.97bn and China label IMF down -14% y/y. Earnings (EBITDA) margins are expected at the upper end of 14%-14.5% which infers earnings (EBITDA) around NZ$285m.

Net profit after tax is expected to be up slightly y/y versus flat to down with operating cash realisation around 70% against previous guidance of circa 50%, Bell Potter highlights.

Notably, product availability issues have been largely resolved. Management has turned its focus to onboarding previous China label IMF users to return, while speeding up new user recruitment with retail and distribution partners.

Net profit after tax forecasts are raised by 3% for FY26 and lowered by -6% for FY27. Hold rated with an unchanged $6.90 target price.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $7.37 Difference: minus $0.47 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.02, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates A2M as Neutral (3) -

Citi continues to flag potential downside risk to FY27 consensus earnings forecasts. The analyst believes management has considerable work to win new customers and win back lost customers post the supply shortages.

The new user recruitment initiatives are viewed as a positive to re-establishing market share in FY27, but the broker remains cautious on the recycling of lost customers on future earnings.

Neutral rated. New target price set at $7 from $6.70, previously.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.37 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.02, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates A2M as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie points out China label sales for FY26 are down -14% y/y which implies they were down by -33% y/y for 2H26 due to the stock availability issues which a2 Milk Co noted "necessitated a large proportion of existing users to switch to alternative brands".

English label brands slightly offset the larger than expected impact on China label.

Preliminary FY26 revenue of NZ$1.97bn is up 12% y/y and the earnings (EBITDA) margin at the upper end of guidance.

EPS forecasts are tweaked up from FY26 and down slightly for FY27. Target price slips to $8.50 from $9.30 due to lower EPS forecast for FY27 and a lower ascribed PER valuation.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating despite the outlook uncertainty due to management's track record inferring sales for China label can be restored.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.37 Difference: $1.13
If A2M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.02, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates A2M as Overweight (1) -

a2 Milk Co has indicated supply issues which were affecting China label products over the 4Q26 have now been fixed.

Management stated "product flows to distributors and retailers have materially improved across China label and English label products with stock levels returning to target levels".

The analyst reckons this removes some of the concern around product availability overhang in FY27 and the company can now focus on user recruitment to onboard customers back to the brand.

a2 Milk Co is due to report FY26 results on August 17. Overweight rating and $9.00 target retained. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.37 Difference: $1.63
If A2M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.02, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ABB as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes SpaceX's strategy and execution will "shape" the Australian telco addressable market, growth outlook as well as competitive backdrop.

Commentary states investors need to develop a clear view on SpaceX rather than considering it as a far-off business. SpaceX is seen as a real disruptor.

The analyst highlights Starlink's new satellites could create more competition for fixed-line operators including winning subscribers and putting pressure on ARPU.

Starlink's direct-to-device satellite services could also impact and lower terminal values of existing companies. While data centres in space and edge compute via satellite could shift portions of AI and data workloads away from land-based data centres.

Aussie Broadband is rated Overweight with a lower target of $6 from $6.30. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: $1.25
If ABB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.02, suggesting upside of 30.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AEL as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter concludes AEMO data points infer Amplitude Energy's June quarter production of 6.7PJ, down from the prior quarter of 6.8PJ and the possibility of lower realised prices.

Despite the softer June quarter, the analyst still expects Amplitude can meet its FY26 guidance with energy market and sentiment poised to normalise.

Around 20% of Amplitude's gas sales are linked to the spot market. Both production and prices were affected by the start of a mild winter season which weighed on gas demand.

Supply was good due to the major southern producer, Longford. EPS forecasts are lowered by -8% for FY26 and -7% for FY27. Target price slips to $2.50 from $2.90. 

No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $1.24
If AEL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 98% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.74, suggesting upside of 115.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates APA as Buy (1) -

Post investor queries, Citi ranks its preferred infrastructure plays. Infratil ((IFT)) is the most preferred due to the robust outlook across data centres and renewable exposures. These are expected to generate earnings growth and a lift in net asset value.

APA is the second most preferred exposure with the assistance from CPI-linked income growth and a robust circa 8% free cash flow yield with around a 3% CAGR to FY30. Upside from future gas projects, including Beetaloo and data centre projects are also noted.

Citi is Neutral on Auckland International Airport ((AIA)) due to pressure on Air New Zealand's capacity. Toll road operators, Transurban ((TCL)) and Atlas Arteria ((ALX)), are viewed as offering "limited" near term upside.

Citi retains a Buy rating with a target of $11.10.

Target price is $11.10 Current Price is $9.84 Difference: $1.26
If APA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.37, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ASX as Hold (3) -

Morgans observes June was a better month overall for cash markets on ASX, with total activity up 54% and the total average daily value up 19% on the prior year. It was quieter on capital markets with total raised capital of $3.3bn down -70% on the prior comparable period.

Average daily futures contracts were up 21% in June. Morgans increases FY27–FY28 estimates for EPS by 2% and raises the target to $53.90 from $51.50. ASX will report its results on August 13. Hold maintained.

Target price is $53.90 Current Price is $53.49 Difference: $0.41
If ASX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $54.38, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes commodity prices have weakened since mid-June, with iron ore down -4%, aluminium -13%, copper -2%, spodumene -6% and thermal coal -3%.

The broker has lowered its 2026-2027 price forecasts for iron ore by around -1%, metallurgical coal -6%, copper -2%, aluminium -8% and thermal coal -9%, resulting in earnings per share downgrades across the sector.

Target prices have been reduced by around -4% for iron ore and diversified miners, while Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)) and New Hope ((NHC)) have received larger target price cuts of around -11%.

Macquarie retains Outperform ratings on Fortescue, Mineral Resources and Whitehaven Coal as its preferred picks.

While lowering its near-term outlook for coal and aluminium, the broker has left its long-term commodity price assumptions unchanged.

BHP Group remains Neutral rated with a $55 target price from $57, previously.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $58.87 Difference: minus $3.87 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $60.73, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Sell (5) -

Citi casts an eye over the energy sector with the upcoming June quarter updates expected to benefit from higher realised prices against the March quarter.

Contract lags mean the full impact of higher oil prices from the Middle East war are unlikely and the broker's Global Commodities team continues to see energy prices weakening.

Citi retains a Brent crude forecast of US$75/bbl and US$70/bbl for the 3Q and 4Q 2026.

Beach Energy is noted for continuing to work through the operational issues at Waitsia and Otway. Sell rating retained with a lower target of 80c from 90c.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.94, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley highlights credit quality for the major banks has remained "sound" with underlying loan loss rates expected to average just 9bps in the quarter.

The broker does anticipate the risk of earnings downgrades from rising loss rates in FY27 with National Australia Bank ((NAB)) having the most exposure to business loans. Westpac ((WBC)), however, has grown the most over the last three years.

Since February, there has been a significant change in the economic outlook and the banks' operating environment, the analyst states. Consumer spending and business profitability are expected to be impacted.

Morgan Stanley forecasts major bank impairment charges of around -$1bn or annualised circa 11bps of loans. CommBank will top its provision of by around -$130m, but other banks are likely to defer until September to review.

CommBank has an Underweight rating and $125 target. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $166.70 Difference: minus $41.7 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $123.40, suggesting downside of -26.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGF as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie observes Challenger's credit spreads have increased by around one basis point and the annuity spreads have increased relative to swap rates by around four basis points in the fourth quarter.

The broker notes the stock is trading at around 14.6x the 12 month forward PE, which is around 24% above the three-year average.

FY26 earnings estimates are raised by 3% and FY27 by 9% to reflect marking to market of the investment portfolio, an additional $6bn in institutional sales over four years as well as an increase in the buyback estimate.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform as recent strength in the share price leaves limited upside in the broker's opinion. Target is raised to $10.30 from $9.40.

Target price is $10.30 Current Price is $10.40 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.17, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes commodity prices have weakened since mid-June, with iron ore down -4%, aluminium -13%, copper -2%, spodumene -6% and thermal coal -3%.

The broker has lowered its calendar 2026-27 price forecasts for iron ore by around -1%, metallurgical coal -6%, copper -2%, aluminium -8% and thermal coal -9%, resulting in earnings per share downgrades across the sector.

Target prices have been reduced by around -4% for iron ore and diversified miners, while Whitehaven Coal and New Hope have received larger target price cuts of around -11%. Macquarie retains Outperform ratings on Fortescue, Mineral Resources and Whitehaven Coal as its preferred picks.

While lowering its near-term outlook for coal and aluminium, the broker has left its long-term commodity price assumptions unchanged.

Champion Iron retains an Outperform rating with a lower target of $6.80 from $7.10.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $2.9
If CIA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COF as Downgrade to Trim from Hold (4) -

Morgans updates interest rate assumptions, including the average cost of debt and an assumed risk-free rate of 4.6% (10-year bond rate). Adverse impacts on property stock valuations have largely been offset by an improved sector outlook as the Australian interest-rate view turns incrementally dovish.

Centuria Office REIT is downgraded to Trim from Hold and the target lowered to $0.80 from $0.90. The broker highlights that, despite trading at a -50% discount to NTA, distributions are likely to fall as disposals drag on FFO.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: minus $0.095 (current price is over target).
If COF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.94, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes commodity prices have weakened since mid-June, with iron ore down -4%, aluminium -13%, copper -2%, spodumene -6% and thermal coal -3%.

The broker has lowered its calendar 2026-27 price forecasts for iron ore by around -1%, metallurgical coal -6%, copper -2%, aluminium -8% and thermal coal -9%, resulting in earnings per share downgrades across the sector.

Target prices have been reduced by around -4% for iron ore and diversified miners, while Whitehaven Coal and New Hope have received larger target price cuts of around -11%. Macquarie retains Outperform ratings on Fortescue, Mineral Resources and Whitehaven Coal as its preferred picks.

While lowering its near-term outlook for coal and aluminium, the broker has left its long-term commodity price assumptions unchanged.

Coronado Global Resources retains an Outperform rating with a lower target of 40c from 60c.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.235
If CRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 142% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 82.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSC as Outperform (1) -

Copper prices have rallied around 6% in the year to date and Macquarie refreshes market-based price forecasts for 18 months before mean reverting to its prior outlook in 2029. Long-term pricing expectations are unchanged.

Estimates for copper equity earnings in the near term are reduced while Capstone Copper remains the broker's pure copper preference. Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $17.80 from $18.30.

Target price is $17.80 Current Price is $12.81 Difference: $4.99
If CSC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.72, suggesting upside of 34.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CWY as Overweight (1) -

The new Food Organics, Garden Organics (FOGO) waste collection rules which will apply to NSW from July 1, commencing with large businesses, including "lime green bins", is viewed as a structural tailwind for Cleanaway Waste Management.

Morgan Stanley points out the FOGO stream is around 9% of NSW municipal solid waste and Australia is targeting a -50% reduction in organic waste sent to landfill by 2030. NSW is leading the charge for FOGO separation.

FOGO can be used to compost for agriculture, thereby lowering reliance on synthetic fertilisers.

The analyst estimates 3%-plus sensitivity upside to Cleanaway's FFY27 EPS from FOGO from 10% growth in solid waste services.

Overweight rating for Cleanaway Waste Management with a target of $2.91. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.91 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.53
If CWY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.96, suggesting upside of 23.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DRR as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie has downgraded Deterra Royalties to Neutral from Outperform on valuation grounds with no change in the $4.70 target price.

Macquarie notes commodity prices have weakened since mid-June, with iron ore down -4%, aluminium -13%, copper -2%, spodumene -6% and thermal coal -3%.

The broker has lowered its calendar 2026-27 price forecasts for iron ore by around -1%, metallurgical coal -6%, copper -2%, aluminium -8% and thermal coal -9%, resulting in earnings per share downgrades across the sector.

Target prices have been reduced by around -4% for iron ore and diversified miners, while Whitehaven Coal and New Hope have received larger target price cuts of around -11%. Macquarie retains Outperform ratings on Fortescue, Mineral Resources and Whitehaven Coal as its preferred picks.

While lowering its near-term outlook for coal and aluminium, the broker has left its long-term commodity price assumptions unchanged.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: $0.2
If DRR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DVP as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter marks-to-market for commodity prices and FX for Develop Global. 

The analyst notes Woodlawn will deliver its first full quarter of commercial production and forecasts 850ktpa nameplate run rate, which is up 19% q/q.

The broker sees scope for nameplate rate to be exceeded post the circa 933ktpa processed in March and additional plant optimisation.

EPS forecasts are raised by 9% for FY26 and 4% for FY27. Target price lifts to $7.20 from $7.10 with no change in Buy rating.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.02 Difference: $1.18
If DVP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ELD as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes rainfall over the last two months has been above average across most of the wheat belt with an improvement in vegetation deviation indexes across the cultivated areas.

A drier period is expected across the 2H2026. Other factors the analyst notes include ongoing resilience in the livestock markets.

Urea prices are down -47% from the peak in AUD terms and glyphosate tech pricing is down around -18% from the peak which both offset the improved soil moisture levels.

Net profit after tax forecasts are tweaked lower by -2% for FY26-FY27. Elders has an unchanged target price of $6.45 with a Buy rating.

Target price is $6.45 Current Price is $5.38 Difference: $1.07
If ELD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.13, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ELV as Outperform (1) -

All four main lithium producers have a June year end and Macquarie expects the investor focus will shift to FY27 guidance, with key areas including production growth and brownfield expansion capex.

Movements in spodumene prices present the most material risks to the broker's earnings forecasts for Elevra Lithium. Spodumene production of 43,000t is anticipated in the fourth quarter, down -9% quarter on quarter after a strong third quarter.

Outperform retained. Target is $14.50.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $9.50 Difference: $5
If ELV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie notes gold has been volatile in 2026, achieving record highs of US$5400/oz before falling back to US$4100/oz as macro economic uncertainty reverberated globally.

The broker refreshes its 2026-28 price forecasts for the miners with long-term prices unchanged at around US$3100/oz.

Following negative earnings revisions for gold/copper Macquarie downgrades Evolution Mining to Neutral from Outperform and considers the stock fairly valued. Target is reduced to $12 from $13. The broker looks for an update on Northparkes as a key catalyst.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $11.94 Difference: $0.06
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.13, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes commodity prices have weakened since mid-June, with iron ore down -4%, aluminium -13%, copper -2%, spodumene -6% and thermal coal -3%.

The broker has lowered its calendar 2026-27 price forecasts for iron ore by around -1%, metallurgical coal -6%, copper -2%, aluminium -8% and thermal coal -9%, resulting in earnings per share downgrades across the sector.

Target prices have been reduced by around -4% for iron ore and diversified miners, while Whitehaven Coal and New Hope have received larger target price cuts of around -11%. Macquarie retains Outperform ratings on Fortescue, Mineral Resources and Whitehaven Coal as its preferred picks.

While lowering its near-term outlook for coal and aluminium, the broker has left its long-term commodity price assumptions unchanged.

Fortescue retains an Outperform rating with a lower target of $21 from $22.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $18.38 Difference: $2.62
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.00, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDF as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Morgans updates interest rate assumptions, including the average cost of debt and an assumed risk-free rate of 4.6% (10-year bond rate). Adverse impacts on property stock valuations have largely been offset by an improved sector outlook as the Australian interest-rate view turns incrementally dovish.

Garda Property is upgraded to Buy from Hold as south-east Queensland industrial markets remain resilient and its private credit book is underpinning its asset base. Target is raised to $1.15 from $1.00.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: $0.125
If GDF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Ahead of Goodman Group's FY26 earnings report in August, Citi explains the market will be focused on capital, construction and customer announcements for its data centre developments as key to both FY26 and the outlook for FY27.

The analyst believes Goodman's power bank of 6.4GW offers a strong moat and management is currently in exclusive negotiations with key tenants across several global assets.

The timing on the leasing announcements remains uncertain, but Citi expects them before December 2026.

An announcement prior to the FY26 result would set the stage for a potential upgrade in the FY27 guidance outlook.

Buy rated with a $40 target.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $30.68 Difference: $9.32
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.21, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GMG as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Morgans updates interest rate assumptions, including the average cost of debt and an assumed risk-free rate of 4.6% (10-year bond rate). Adverse impacts on property stock valuations have largely been offset by an improved sector outlook as the Australian interest-rate view turns incrementally dovish.

Goodman Group is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy on valuation grounds, with the stock up 19% in three months. Target is steady at $36.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $30.68 Difference: $5.32
If GMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.21, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HDN as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Morgans updates interest rate assumptions, including the average cost of debt and an assumed risk-free rate of 4.6% (10-year bond rate). Adverse impacts on property stock valuations have largely been offset by an improved sector outlook as the Australian interest-rate view turns incrementally dovish.

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold as confidence improves around its capacity to navigate a more cautious consumer environment. Target is raised to $1.36 from $1.25.

Target price is $1.36 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.11
If HDN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie expects FY26 gross written premium growth will be "disappointing" when Insurance Australia Group reports its results and no excess capital returns are expected until clarity is provided on the proposed RAC WA acquisition.

The broker raises FY26 estimates for EPS by 1.5% and FY27 by 3.0% with the target lifted to $7.30 from $7.00 to reflect the medium term changes. Underperform retained.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $8.12 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.80, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFT as Buy (1) -

Post investor queries, Citi ranks its preferred infrastructure plays. Infratil is the most preferred due to the robust outlook across data centres and renewable exposures. These are expected to generate earnings growth and a lift in net asset value.

APA ((APA)) is the second most preferred exposure with assistance from CPI-linked income growth and a robust circa 8% free cash flow yield with around a 3% CAGR to FY30. Upside from future gas projects, including Beetaloo and data centre projects are also noted.

Citi is Neutral on Auckland International Airport ((AIA)) due to pressure on Air New Zealand's capacity. Toll road operators, Transurban ((TCL)) and Atlas Arteria ((ALX)), are viewed as offering "limited" near term upside.

Infratil is Buy rated with a $15.18 target.

Target price is $15.18 Current Price is $12.64 Difference: $2.54
If IFT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.49, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

All four main lithium producers have a June year end and Macquarie expects the investor focus will shift to FY27 guidance, with key areas including production growth and brownfield expansion capex.

The broker expects a slight production miss at IGO Ltd, and will look for greater clarity on repair timelines in FY27 and production impacts following the fire event at Greenbushes.

Spodumene production is forecast to be -4% below consensus in the fourth quarter. Outperform. Target is $10.50.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $7.21 Difference: $3.29
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.06, suggesting upside of 31.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KAR as Buy (1) -

Citi casts an eye over the energy sector with the upcoming June quarter updates expected to benefit from higher realised prices against the March quarter.

Contract lags mean the full impact of higher oil prices from the Middle East war are unlikely and the broker's Global Commodities team continues to see energy prices weakening.

Citi retains a Brent crude forecast of US$75/bbl and US$70/bbl for the 3Q and 4Q 2026.

Karoon Energy retains a Buy rating with a higher target of $1.80 from $1.75.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $0.445
If KAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.79, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KSL as Buy (1) -

Kina Securities provided a FY26 guidance update, signalling earnings of PGK132-138m, up 15%-20% although well below Morgans' previous expectations.

The broker acknowledges some "bright spots" with sustained revenue growth across target segments and the boost from a reduced corporate tax rate, yet several challenges are expected to weigh.

The main one is a decline in acquiring revenue caused by interoperability problems with debit cards issued by a major PNG bank. The broker retains a Buy rating and lowers the target to $1.48 from $1.57.

Target price is $1.48 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.21
If KSL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in PGK. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LOV as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights, with the assistance of the broker's Research Innovation Lab, the rollout in new stores has picked up pace and is no longer tracking below expectations.

Buy retained. Target $32.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $22.68 Difference: $9.32
If LOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.74, suggesting upside of 32.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Outperform (1) -

All four main lithium producers have a June year end and Macquarie expects the investor focus will shift to FY27 guidance with key areas including production growth and brownfield expansion capex.

The broker expects Liontown production forecasts will miss expectations in the fourth quarter as the challenges in ramping up the underground mining activities should not be underestimated.

A gradual transition is assumed while stockpiled ore sorting material is processed, resulting in FY27 production forecasts of 477,000t, -6% below consensus. Outperform retained. Target is $2.30.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.77
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 53.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Equal-weight (3) -

Lynas Rare Earths has announced an agreement with South Korean magnet producer JS Link which is viewed by Morgan Stanley as incrementally positive for the company.

The partnership is to develop a 3ktpa NdFeB magnet factory in Kuantan, Malaysia in close proximity to its advanced materials plant, the analyst points out.

Lynas will invest around $50m equity in JS Link for a circa 4.6% construction stake and supply rare earths to JS's Yesan plant in South Korea.

The broker notes the earnings impact is "limited" as consensus forecasts already assume NdPr production will rise to 11.4ktpa in FY28 from around 7.6ktpa in FY26.

The announcement is seen as a positive factor for sentiment. Equal-weight rating. Target is $20.45. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $20.45 Current Price is $16.91 Difference: $3.54
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.07, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett notes a follow-up on the Lynas Rare Earths MOU with Korean magnet maker, JS Link, with the latter planning to build and operate a 3000tpa factory in Malaysia.

Lynas will invest $50m in ordinary equity in the company to assist with capital expenditure and supply rare earths to the new factory as well as the JS Link Yesan magnet plant that is ramping up in South Korea.

The broker reminds the market the June quarter result will be reported in late July and FY26 results in August with interim CEO Pol Le Roux under investor scrutiny. Sell rating and $14 target.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $16.91 Difference: minus $2.91 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.07, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes commodity prices have weakened since mid-June, with iron ore down -4%, aluminium -13%, copper -2%, spodumene -6% and thermal coal -3%.

The broker has lowered its calendar 2026-27 price forecasts for iron ore by around -1%, metallurgical coal -6%, copper -2%, aluminium -8% and thermal coal -9%, resulting in earnings per share downgrades across the sector.

Target prices have been reduced by around -4% for iron ore and diversified miners, while Whitehaven Coal and New Hope have received larger target price cuts of around -11%. Macquarie retains Outperform ratings on Fortescue, Mineral Resources and Whitehaven Coal as its preferred picks.

While lowering its near-term outlook for coal and aluminium, the broker has left its long-term commodity price assumptions unchanged.

Mineral Resources retains an Outperform rating with a lower target of $86 from $87.

Target price is $86.00 Current Price is $60.95 Difference: $25.05
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $78.20, suggesting upside of 33.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

Citi anticipates Medibank Private will announce a solid FY26 result post the 5.1% premium rise with industry participation noted as remaining at high levels.

Growth in resident policyholders has improved for the Medibank brand but could come in lower than the system, the analyst points out.

Non-residents and Medibank Health look set to continue to assist with earnings growth. Earnings forecasts are tweaked for mark-to-market.

Target of $5.10 and Neutral rating for Medibank Private.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $0.1
If MPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.12, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley highlights credit quality for the major banks has remained "sound" with underlying loan loss rates expected to average just 9bps in the quarter.

The broker does anticipate the risk of earnings downgrades from rising loss rates in FY27 with National Australia Bank having the most exposure to business loans. Westpac ((WBC)), however, has grown the most over the last three years.

Since February, there has been a significant change in the economic outlook and the banks' operating environment, the analyst states. Consumer spending and business profitability are expected to be impacted.

Morgan Stanley forecasts major bank impairment charges of around -$1bn or annualised circa 11bps of loans. CommBank ((CBA)) will top its provision of by around -$130m, but other banks are likely to defer until September to review.

National Australia Bank retains an Underweight rating and $34.50 target. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $39.22 Difference: minus $4.72 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $38.64, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Nine Entertainment has renewed the National Rugby League broadcast rights for 2028–2034 with annual net cost of $150m. The main terms of the agreement remain intact.

Separately, the company has also announced an AI partnership with Microsoft.

The broker does not include any earnings benefits within its forecasts amid uncertainty over the News Media Bargaining Code outcome, as the federal government has delayed any passing of the bill until at least August.

The business is considered well-positioned for the eventual advertising market recovery and Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $1.05 target.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.135
If NEC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.15, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes commodity prices have weakened since mid-June, with iron ore down -4%, aluminium -13%, copper -2%, spodumene -6% and thermal coal -3%.

The broker has lowered its calendar 2026-27 price forecasts for iron ore by around -1%, metallurgical coal -6%, copper -2%, aluminium -8% and thermal coal -9%, resulting in earnings per share downgrades across the sector.

Target prices have been reduced by around -4% for iron ore and diversified miners, while Whitehaven Coal and New Hope have received larger target price cuts of around -11%. Macquarie retains Outperform ratings on Fortescue, Mineral Resources and Whitehaven Coal as its preferred picks.

While lowering its near-term outlook for coal and aluminium, the broker has left its long-term commodity price assumptions unchanged.

New Hope retains an Outperform rating with a lower target of $6.20 from $7.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $4.94 Difference: $1.26
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.36, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHF as Buy (1) -

Citi considers nib Holdings will be in a position to announce a fully franked special dividend post the sale of the travel division generating funds of $117.5m along with sufficient franking credits.

The analyst acknowledges there is some slowing in growth across parts of the business but continues to forecast FY26 underlying operating profit at the upper end of management's guidance range.

Post mark-to-market, EPS forecasts are tweaked lower by -2% for FY26. The stock continues to trade at a sizeable discount to Medibank Private ((MPL)).

Buy rating retained with a higher target of $8 from $7.70, previously.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.08 Difference: $0.92
If NHF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.36, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NWL as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes the agreement with Morgan Stanley Wealth with possibly two more wins on the cards for Netwealth Group due to the existing relationship. 

Management pointed to FY27 net flow between $18bn-$20bn including both organic growth and new wins. The analyst also highlights management's above consensus FY30 target to double FUA by FY30.

FY27 earnings (EBITDA) margin guidance of 47% is viewed as a "floor" and reflects investment in product and technology.

EPS forecasts are lowered for the update guidance by -7% for FY27 and -4% for FY28, with net flow forecasts upgraded by 8% for FY27-FY29.

Netwealth Group retains a Buy rating and $30 target.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $24.43 Difference: $5.57
If NWL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.07, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Buy (1) -

Netwealth Group announced its 4Q update with Citi noting the fall in flows was expected given the macro/tax uncertainties.

Positively, the group announced an expansion of its agreement with Morgan Stanley (around $3bn–$4bn) which offers some confidence around FY27 flows guidance of circa $18bn–$20bn, the broker emphasises.

The doubling of FUA by FY30 is still anticipated supported by the agreement. EPS forecasts slip slightly by -1% for FY26/FY27.

Analyst coverage changes to Jeff Cai from Siraj Ahmed.

Buy rating retained with a higher target price of $29.10 from $25.35 due to a change in the DCF valuation.

Target price is $29.10 Current Price is $24.43 Difference: $4.67
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.07, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWL as Outperform (1) -

Netwealth Group has announced FY26 net flows will be around $15.4bn, slightly below what Macquarie had anticipated while FY27 guidance of $18bn–$20bn is ahead of expectations.

The company has outlined its ambition to double funds under administration by FY30. FY26 EBITDA margin guidance has been reiterated at 49%.

Netwealth has also signed Morgan Stanley Wealth, with a portion of FUA to transition for administration in the near term.

Macquarie adjusts earnings estimates for the short term down by -3%–6%, as EBITDA margins are lowered to reflect a step up in growth initiatives.

Target rises to $32.40 from $30.50 and an Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $32.40 Current Price is $24.43 Difference: $7.97
If NWL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.07, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NWL as Overweight (1) -

Netwealth Group's expansion in its client agreement with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management is viewed positively.

Net flows for FY26 of $15.4bn were flagged by management versus consensus at $16.1bn with higher net flow of $18bn-$20bn versus consensus of $17bn in FY27.

An opportunity to grow FUA by around $600m was highlighted by the group in broking and private wealth, while FY27 earnings (EBITDA) margin guidance was lower at 47% versus consensus at 48.9%.

Lower margin outlook reflects ongoing investment in product and technology. Capex was also flagged to rise meaningfully.

EPS forecasts are trimmed by -1% to -4% for FY26-FY28.

Overweight rating reiterated. Target is reduced to $31 from $33. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $24.43 Difference: $6.57
If NWL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.07, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NWL as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett found the update from Netwealth Group weaker than expected in terms of the net flows in FY26, while this is offset by a more confident outlook  for FY27 and beyond. Management is aiming to double funds under administration over the next four years.

The EBITDA margin is also expected to resume improvement after a dip in FY27. Going forward, the broker finds there is more to be optimistic about and upgrades the rating to Accumulate from Hold.

Some of this confidence is underpinned by a new agreement with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, although underlying organic growth is also anticipated. Target rises to $26 from $25.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $24.43 Difference: $1.57
If NWL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.07, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

Netwealth Group has announced a partnership with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia. Growth in its broking and private wealth markets is expected to partially underpin ambitions to double funds under administration by FY30.

UBS calculates this would drive 16% compound growth in revenue but at the expense of a more subdued margin outlook.

The stock appears clear of margin re-set risk as the visibility over long-term growth has improved, yet the broker notes uncertainty still remains around the short term as the June cyclical slowdown may persist into the first quarter of FY27.

Striking the right balance between growth and margin has been a key debate for the stock and UBS retains a Neutral rating. Target is raised to $26.00 from $24.45.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $24.43 Difference: $1.57
If NWL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.07, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORA as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie suspects the tough conditions are likely to continue for some time for Saverglass, reflecting weak demand and adverse price/mix.

Orora has not indicated any change in guidance since its April update and the broker retains FY27 estimates for EPS that are -16% below consensus.

Saverglass continues to experience the effects of de-premiumisation and a material negative impact on profit. Macquarie now forecasts EUR57m in FY27 European earnings, down -11% on the prior corresponding period.

A Middle East peace deal and lower oil prices are not expected to manifest until the second half of FY27. A 5% buyback is factored in to the broker's estimates and the target is lowered to $1.55 from $1.90. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.41 Difference: $0.14
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.66, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

All four main lithium producers have a June year-end and Macquarie expects the investor focus will shift to FY27 guidance with key areas including production growth and brownfield expansion capex.

FY27–FY29 capex forecasts for PLS Group are 25–28% above consensus, with the broker's numbers reflecting higher deferred stripping requirements in FY27 and a more conservative view on P2000 cost escalation.

Realised prices for the company are expected to be up 3% in the fourth quarter with costs stable. Outperform rating and $6.25 target.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $4.86 Difference: $1.39
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.78, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates REG as Reinstate Coverage with Neutral (3) -

UBS reinstates coverage of Regis Healthcare with a Neutral rating and $7 target. Pressure on the aged care system which is already operating at near-record occupancy is expected to continue apace, while development activity has been subdued.

The broker envisages downside to FY27 consensus estimates as extra services revenue is expected to fall with the transition to the Higher Every day Living Fee (HELF).

UBS  believes there is risk the increase in annual AN-ACC funding could fall short.

As this is likely to be a short-term headwind, given the need to stimulate investment, any funding changes are likely to favour incumbents, the broker adds.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.57 Difference: $0.43
If REG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.03, suggesting upside of 27.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes commodity prices have weakened since mid-June, with iron ore down -4%, aluminium -13%, copper -2%, spodumene -6% and thermal coal -3%.

The broker has lowered its calendar 2026-27 price forecasts for iron ore by around -1%, metallurgical coal -6%, copper -2%, aluminium -8% and thermal coal -9%, resulting in earnings per share downgrades across the sector.

Target prices have been reduced by around -4% for iron ore and diversified miners, while Whitehaven Coal and New Hope have received larger target price cuts of around -11%. Macquarie retains Outperform ratings on Fortescue, Mineral Resources and Whitehaven Coal as its preferred picks.

While lowering its near-term outlook for coal and aluminium, the broker has left its long-term commodity price assumptions unchanged.

Rio Tinto is Neutral rated with a $180 target price, down from $188, previously.

Target price is $180.00 Current Price is $168.14 Difference: $11.86
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $178.42, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley points out the US FDA has issued warnings letters to BMC Medical and React Health on the regulatory status of devices, including changes to product design without approval, as well as other compliance issues.

Compared to ResMed, the analyst estimates "modest revenue" for BMC Medical. The base case for Philips to re-enter the market is from 2027.

Earnings forecasts are below consensus due to the expectation of Philips coming back into the market as well as some cost inflation which is anticipated to affect gross margin.

Equal-weight rating with a US$230 target price.  Industry View: In-Line.

Current Price is $31.44. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $40.76, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RMD as Buy (1) -

ResMed has agreed sell its MatrixCare division for US$490m cash to private equity firm Frazier Healthcare partners and reiterated FY26 guidance.

Morgans, in a quick response, notes the deal excludes Brightree and Medifox Dan, confirming the company remains committed to software where it supports its connected-care ecosystem.

As net proceeds will largely be returned to shareholders via an accelerated share repurchase program, Morgans states this should broadly offset the earnings dilution from both the MatrixCare disposal and the recently announced Noctrix acquisition.

Overall, the deal is seen as a positive one. Morgans also notes management continues to expect the Residential Care Software (RCS) segment to accelerate to high single digit revenue growth, along with operating leverage, in FY27.

Management will provide FY27 outlook during its 4QFY26 earnings call on 6 August. Morgans expects only modest changes to consensus FY27 EPS and valuation.

Buy. Target $41.72.

Target price is $41.72 Current Price is $31.44 Difference: $10.28
If RMD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.76, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes commodity prices have weakened since mid-June, with iron ore down -4%, aluminium -13%, copper -2%, spodumene -6% and thermal coal -3%.

The broker has lowered its calendar 2026-27 price forecasts for iron ore by around -1%, metallurgical coal -6%, copper -2%, aluminium -8% and thermal coal -9%, resulting in earnings per share downgrades across the sector.

Target prices have been reduced by around -4% for iron ore and diversified miners, while Whitehaven Coal and New Hope have received larger target price cuts of around -11%. Macquarie retains Outperform ratings on Fortescue, Mineral Resources and Whitehaven Coal as its preferred picks.

While lowering its near-term outlook for coal and aluminium, the broker has left its long-term commodity price assumptions unchanged.

South32 retains a Neutral rating with a lower target of $4.30 from $4.50.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.00 Difference: $0.3
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.95, suggesting upside of 25.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

Copper prices have rallied around 6% in the year to date and Macquarie refreshes market-based price forecasts for 18 months before mean reverting to its prior outlook in 2029. Long-term pricing expectations are unchanged.

Estimates for copper equity earnings in the near term are reduced. Neutral rating retained for Sandfire Resources. Target is reduced to $20 from $21.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $18.51 Difference: $1.49
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.15, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGP as Buy (1) -

Citi received several queries around the preferred residential developer, Stockland, post the broker's upgrade two weeks ago.

General interest centres around the potential upside from the data centre business. Management previously announced it has approved power of 450MW projects and has indicated additional projects which would boost upside, once approved and power secured.

The analyst also sees upside to Stockland's over $10bn logistics development pipeline which would be value accretive over the 6% yield on costs, and above the debt of 5.5%.

More information on the data centre business is expected in the next 6–12 months.

The analyst reiterates a Buy rating with a $5.10 target price.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $3.89 Difference: $1.21
If SGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SPK as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes SpaceX's strategy and execution will "shape" the Australian telco addressable market, growth outlook as well as competitive backdrop.

Commentary suggests investors need to develop a clear view on SpaceX rather than considering it as a far-off business. SpaceX is seen as a real disruptor.

The analyst highlights Starlink's new satellites could create more competition for fixed-line operators including winning subscribers and putting pressure on ARPU.

Starlink's direct-to-device satellite services could also impact and lower terminal values of existing companies. Whilst data centres in space and edge compute via satellite could shift portions of AI and data workloads away from land-based data centres.

Spark New Zealand is Underweight rated with a lower target of NZ$1.80 from NZ$1.90. Industry view: In-Line.

Current Price is $1.53. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

Citi casts an eye over the energy sector with the upcoming June quarter updates expected to benefit from higher realised prices against the March quarter.

Contract lags mean the full impact of higher oil prices from the Middle East war are unlikely and the broker's Global Commodities team continues to see energy prices weakening.

Citi retains a Brent crude forecast of US$75/bbl and US$70/bbl for the 3Q and 4Q 2026.

Santos target slips to $8.30 from $8.50 with no change in Buy rating. The analyst prefers Santos over Woodside Energy ((WDS)).

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.09 Difference: $1.21
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.30, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects Suncorp Group to announce an additional $200m buyback at its FY26 results. Guidance for FY27 gross written premium growth is expected to be in low single-digits.

Macquarie increases EPS estimates for FY26 by 18.3%, incorporating the unwinding of the negative marks for the property portfolio in the third quarter. Target is lowered to $20.30 from $20.60 to reflect the medium-term EPS changes. Outperform retained.

Target price is $20.30 Current Price is $18.73 Difference: $1.57
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.89, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TLS as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes SpaceX's strategy and execution will "shape" the Australian telco addressable market, growth outlook as well as competitive backdrop.

Commentary posits investors need to develop a clear view on SpaceX rather than considering it as a far-off business. SpaceX is seen as a real disruptor.

The analyst highlights Starlink's new satellites could create more competition for fixed-line operators including winning subscribers and putting pressure on ARPU.

Starlink's direct-to-device satellite services could also impact and lower terminal values of existing companies. While data centres in space and edge compute via satellite could shift portions of AI and data workloads away from land-based data centres.

Overweight. Telstra Group target slips to $5.30 from $5.40. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.07 Difference: $0.23
If TLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.35, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TLX as Buy (1) -

Citi believes 2Q2026 consensus estimate for earnings of US$184m for Illuccix/Gozellix sales appears ok, with its own forecast 2% higher.

A potential 5% beat would possibly pave the way for a FY26 guidance upgrade, albeit management did not upgrade until 3Q.

The FDA agreement for ProstACT Global trial continuing has removed an overhang. The broker sees Telix as gaining market share in 2026 with Lantheus competition becoming more prevalent in 2027.

Citi considers consensus PSMA PET sales CAGR forecast of around 7% are too "conservative", stating the estimates include copper headwinds with no upside from BiPass included.

More information is needed to model BiPass, but the analyst reckons it has scope to offset future competition.

The shares are considered as more attractive now with a Buy rating retained. Target $32.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $16.89 Difference: $15.11
If TLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.10, suggesting upside of 59.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TPG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes SpaceX's strategy and execution will "shape" the Australian telco addressable market, growth outlook as well as competitive backdrop.

Commentary posits investors need to develop a clear view on SpaceX rather than considering it as a far-off business. SpaceX is seen as a real disruptor.

The analyst highlights Starlink's new satellites could create more competition for fixed-line operators including winning subscribers and putting pressure on ARPU.

Starlink's direct-to-device satellite services could also impact and lower terminal values of existing companies. While data centres in space and edge compute via satellite could shift portions of AI and data workloads away from land-based data centres.

TPG Telecom is Underweight rated. Target slips to $3.40 from $3.50. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.59 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If TPG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VAU as Buy (1) -

Vault Minerals has received a superior proposal from Genesis Minerals ((GMD)) which Ord Minnett asserts makes strategic sense, given the operating synergies, and this will make it hard for Regis Resources ((RRL)) to stage a better counter offer.

The broker's modelling confirms the logic of the deal with Genesis Minerals by recognising $1.5bn in operating synergies, improved asset quality and increased group production.

Ord Minnett considers the merged business will have several elements such as management credentials, growth, yield and valuation that should mean it outperforms peers over time.

The proposal is not included in estimates at this point in time, pending greater confidence on completion. Buy rating and $7.30 target.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: $2.32
If VAU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.13, suggesting upside of 48.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley highlights credit quality for the major banks has remained "sound" with underlying loan loss rates expected to average just 9bps in the quarter.

The broker does anticipate the risk of earnings downgrades from rising loss rates in FY27 with National Australia Bank ((NAB)) having the most exposure to business loans. Westpac, however, has grown the most over the last three years.

Since February, there has been a significant change in the economic outlook and the banks' operating environment, the analyst states. Consumer spending and business profitability are expected to be impacted.

Morgan Stanley forecasts major bank impairment charges of around -$1bn or annualised circa 11bps of loans. CommBank ((CBA)) will top its provision by around -$130m, but other banks are likely to defer until September to review.

The Underweight rating and $31.50 target for Westpac are unchanged. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $36.13 Difference: minus $4.63 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.85, suggesting downside of -7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Citi casts an eye over the energy sector with the upcoming June quarter updates expected to benefit from higher realised prices against the March quarter.

Contract lags mean the full impact of higher oil prices from the Middle East war are unlikely and the broker's Global Commodities team continues to see energy prices weakening.

Citi retains a Brent crude forecast of US$75/bbl and US$70/bbl for the 3Q and 4Q 2026.

Woodside Energy retains a Neutral rating with an unchanged target price of $29.50.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $27.97 Difference: $1.53
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.44, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes commodity prices have weakened since mid-June, with iron ore down -4%, aluminium -13%, copper -2%, spodumene -6% and thermal coal -3%.

The broker has lowered its calendar 2026-27 price forecasts for iron ore by around -1%, metallurgical coal -6%, copper -2%, aluminium -8% and thermal coal -9%, resulting in earnings per share downgrades across the sector.

Target prices have been reduced by around -4% for iron ore and diversified miners, while Whitehaven Coal and New Hope have received larger target price cuts of around -11%. Macquarie retains Outperform ratings on Fortescue, Mineral Resources and Whitehaven Coal as its preferred picks.

While lowering its near-term outlook for coal and aluminium, the broker has left its long-term commodity price assumptions unchanged.

Whitehaven Coal retains an Outperform rating with a lower target of $9 from $10.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.11 Difference: $1.89
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.08, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WPR as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Morgans updates interest rate assumptions, including the average cost of debt and an assumed risk-free rate of 4.6% (10-year bond rate). Adverse impacts on property stock valuations have largely been offset by an improved sector outlook as the Australian interest-rate view turns incrementally dovish.

Waypoint REIT is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold as confidence improves around its capacity to navigate a more cautious consumer environment. Target is raised to $2.50 from $2.45.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.08
If WPR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources