Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates A2M as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans believes a2 Milk Co's preliminary unaudited FY26 update was better than feared. Strength across the broader portfolio offset a sharp decline in China Label infant formula sales caused by supply disruptions, the broker explains.

FY26 profit and cash flow guidance were upgraded, and supply constraints have largely been resolved, the analysts note. Higher FY27 marketing spend is expected to regain lost customers.

The broker's forecasts are little changed for FY26 but trimmed for FY27-FY28, with earnings growth expected to accelerate from FY27 as supply chain investments mature and new markets scale.

Morgans retains an Accumulate rating and lowers the target to $8.30 from $8.70.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.22 Difference: $1.08
If A2M meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.94, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ADH as Hold (3) -

Adairs delivered a trading update for FY26 that revealed revenue in line with Bell Potter's estimates whilst EBIT was better. This was underpinned by strength in the core Adairs brand which is 70% of the business.

Focus on Furniture was affected by growing competition in addition to the business rebuilding process that is underway.

The broker's revised estimates include single-digit growth in revenue and EBIT with FX tailwinds flowing through in the first half of FY27 that will benefit the gross margin.

Hold rating. Target edges up to $1.45 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If ADH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.64, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ADH as Hold (3) -

Adairs served up a mixed trading update according to Ord Minnett with group sales a slight miss on the analyst's forecast by -1.2%.

FY26 underlying earnings (EBIT) guidance came in largely in line with expectations once adjustments are made.

Mocka traded strongly but was offset by Focus on Furniture which continued to struggle with earnings down -68.3%.

A non-cash impairment of -$62m-$68m for the carrying value of Focus on Furniture was also announced.

Near term earnings remain at risk due to macro headwinds, the analyst states.

Hold rated with an unchanged target of $1.60.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.13
If ADH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.64, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ADH as Neutral (3) -

Adairs announced a FY26 trading update with group underlying earnings (EBIT) expected to come in between around $53.5m-$55.5m.

At the midpoint this is slightly above UBS' and consensus forecasts prior to the update.

Management pointed to a buoyant 2H26 trading period with like-for-like sales up 3.8% versus 4.8% for 1H26. Gross margin also expanded which the analyst expects can be maintained into the start of FY27.

The exit from the NZ market is also anticipated to support earnings margins in FY27.

Australian Mocka sales rose 40% while NZ showed trading momentum, benefitting from promotions. Focus on Furniture, in contrast, remains challenged, the broker points out.

EPS forecasts are tweaked lower by -4% for FY27. UBS retains a Neutral rating as headwinds are expected from competitors and higher interest rates. Target price rises to $1.50 from $1.44.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.03
If ADH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.64, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects copper prices to remain subdued through July and August before strengthening from September as supportive macro and market conditions re-emerge.

The broker forecasts copper averaging US$14,500/t in the December quarter and reaching US$15,000/t within a year, supported by a more dovish Federal Reserve, tighter physical markets and structural demand.

Underlying copper demand is considered resilient despite distorted headline consumption data caused by last year's surge in Chinese renewable installations.

AI investment, defence spending and manufacturing expansion are likely to underpin medium-term demand, reinforcing Citi's bullish outlook.

For BHP Group: target $66 and Neutral rating.

Target price is $66.00 Current Price is $57.51 Difference: $8.49
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $60.73, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of the June quarter production report from BHP Group, Macquarie forecasts a slight miss on iron ore with copper in line.

Production of 74mt of iron ore at Western Australia Iron Ore with a realised price of US$98/wmt is anticipated. Industry cost inflation will be the focus.

Copper is expected to deliver 489,000t while the company's share of BMA coal is expected to be 5.8mt. The BMA estimate is informed by Hay Point throughput data.

Macquarie anticipates the focus will be on guidance for FY27, while the strike recently undertaken in WA will loom large, planned to occur on the day of the quarterly results on July 16. Neutral rating and $55 target maintained.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $57.51 Difference: minus $2.51 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $60.73, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observes recent weakness in the materials sector stems from profit-taking after a run of 18 months and this creates a "pullback opportunity" to rotate into commodities that have strong demand fundamentals, such as in uranium and copper.

US tariff decisions remain the risk in copper, yet the broker considers stockpiles as strategic with the downside capped if tariffs potentially push COMEX copper back to around US$6.85/lb.

BHP Group is Morgan Stanley's preferred thematic play with more than 50% of EBITDA from copper. Overweight rating and $67.50 target maintained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $67.50 Current Price is $57.51 Difference: $9.99
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $60.73, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CDA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses the rapid acceleration in global drone and unmanned systems expenditure. NATO has announced its "Drone Edge" initiative including more than US$40bn of investment from more than 30 allies in drone and counter-drone capabilities.

The geopolitical uncertainty and conflict are feeding global defence spending on unmanned systems which positions Codan to benefit.

Macquarie is confident DTC's BluSDR portfolio can benefit from the structural shift as it offers a competitive advantage through best-in-class SWaP performance and battle-proven operation in GPS-denied environments.

Outperform. Target rises to $48.50 from $44.20.

Target price is $48.50 Current Price is $43.00 Difference: $5.5
If CDA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.08, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CGS as Buy (1) -

Cogstate's 4Q26 contract sales of US$21.9m revealed a fourth successive quarter that exceeded US$20m, which Bell Potter notes lifts the full year to US$89m and a record for the Clinical Trials segment.

New contracts sales and revenue backlog are higher than they have ever been amid a more diversified, high-volume contract base, the broker adds. Of the new contract sales in the fourth quarter US$12.7m will be recognised in FY27.

This strong starting point leads to an 11% increase in the broker's FY27 revenue estimates with FY28 also increasing from a higher base. Buy rating maintained. The broker was surprised at the soft share price response and raises the target to $3.70 from $3.20.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $1.01
If CGS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley observes recent weakness in the materials sector stems from profit-taking after a run of 18 months and this creates a "pullback opportunity" to rotate into commodities that have strong demand fundamentals, such as in uranium and copper.

Deterra Royalties is downgraded to Underweight from Overweight, following lower iron ore assumptions and revised MAC forecasts.

The asset still screens as high-quality and production is expected to increase to 146mt in FY28 yet the broker considers the valuation less attractive. The target is lowered to $3.95 from $4.45. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $4.49 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EIQ as Speculative Buy (1) -

EchoIQ has completed a $110m capital raising as well as a data licencing agreement with Advara Heartcare, Ord Minnett points out.

The agreement with Advara brings forth up to 1m echos (images and measurements) and accompanying patient records and data.

The analyst sees this development as facilitating the expansion of the company's R&D pipeline into diseases which require images to be read for improved and effective diagnosis.

Target price is raised to $2 from $1.80. No change in Speculative Buy rating.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $0.455
If EIQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.68, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

UBS lowers the target price on Evolution Mining to $12.20 from $12.60 ahead of the June quarter update on July 15.

EPS forecasts are trimmed for lower near-term gold and copper production.

Neutral rated.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $11.44 Difference: $0.76
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.06, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley observes recent weakness in the materials sector stems from profit-taking after a run of 18 months and this creates a "pullback opportunity" to rotate into commodities that have strong demand fundamentals, such as in uranium and copper.

IGO Ltd is upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight as it is now trading in line with valuation. The broker notes since April the stock is down -11%, and whilst suspended supply is returning, tightness should still support lithium in the current quarter.

Target is raised to $6.95 from $6.85. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $6.95 Difference: $0
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.08, suggesting upside of 33.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes zircon market fundamentals remain supportive.

The broker's industry checks indicate Iluka Resources is likely to implement a further US$250/t zircon price increase in the September quarter following a US$120/t increase in the June quarter.

Commentary notes tight premium-grade zircon supply, constrained Senegal exports and limited heavy mineral concentrate availability continue to underpin pricing. This is despite subdued Chinese ceramics demand and increasing material substitution at higher prices.

New demand from China's emerging solid-state battery industry is expected to provide an additional source of zircon consumption through battery-grade zirconia production.

Morgan Stanley expects supply constraints to persist in the near term, although recovering production from Coburn and increased concentrate imports from Nigeria and Mozambique should gradually ease market tightness.

Overweight rating for Iluka Resources. Target is $7.95. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $7.95 Current Price is $6.56 Difference: $1.39
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.23, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates INR as Speculative Buy (1) -

The non-binding letters of intent between the Korean Overseas Infrastructure & Urban Development Corporation (KIND), Hyundai Engineering Co. and ioneer have now become Memoranda of Understanding.

The statements from the companies focus on economic partnerships between the Republic of Korea and the United States, critical minerals supply chains and the Rhyolite Ridge project.

The engagement remains non-binding but Bell Potter considers the calibre of the commentary a strong endorsement of the project development pathway.

Commentary posits the project is a strategically important US-located source of lithium and boron supply. Speculative Buy rating and $0.40 target.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.255
If INR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 176% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley observes recent weakness in the materials sector stems from profit-taking after a run of 18 months and this creates a "pullback opportunity" to rotate into commodities that have strong demand fundamentals, such as in uranium and copper.

Lynas Rare Earths has an Equal-weight rating as the broker envisages risks to consensus ramp-up forecasts, which are seen as potentially slower and demand driven, and with the company likely to refrain from selling to China.

Target is reduced to $17.50 from $20.45. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $17.08 Difference: $0.42
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.58, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MFG as Underperform (5) -

Magellan Financial reported net outflows of -$2.5bn in the June quarter, worse than Macquarie expected. Retail flows were disappointing following the transition to Vinva. Funds under management of $36.7bn were -4% below the broker's estimates, driven by the weaker flows.

The flagship funds are seen below benchmarks, including the Magellan Global Equities Open Class, Magellan Infrastructure Fund and Airlie Australian Share Fund.

Macquarie continues to envisage downside risk to asset management earnings amid more moderate Barrenjoey EPS growth in the near term. Underperform reiterated. Target is reduced to $7.00 from $7.40.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $10.53 Difference: minus $3.53 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.47, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MFG as Neutral (3) -

Magellan Financial's June update revealed a weak result, UBS highlights. FUM came in at $36.7bn, down -5.5% against the analyst's forecast of $38.6bn, and representing a fall of -2.1% on the prior quarter.

Ex restructuring for the switch to Vinva retail, the underlying net outflows of $1.1bn were basically in line with expectations.

Fee revenue for Australian investment banks was up around 6% y/y in 2H26 according to LSEG data, the broker notes and the market conditions infer upside risk to 2H earnings for Barrenjoey.

EPS forecasts are trimmed by -0.3% for FY26 and -4.4% for FY27. Neutral rating retained. Target is trimmed to $10.40 from $10.71.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $10.53 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.47, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MI6 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Minerals 260 has updated its mineral resource, prefeasibility study and ore reserve for the Bullabulling project in Western Australia. Bell Potter notes the PFS presents a compelling case for project development, outlining a long-life high-margin gold project.

A maiden ore reserve of 90mt at 0.86g/t gold for 2.5m ounces supports a 5mtpa process plant producing an average of 150,000 ozpa over a 19-year mine life with capital expenditure of $180m pre-FID.

The broker notes the updated resource of 6.2m ounces includes 4.4m ounces in the higher confidence Indicated category. Speculative Buy rating. Target is raised to $1.40 from $1.35.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: $0.765
If MI6 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 120% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.26, suggesting upside of 110.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie's proprietary index that monitors private hospital admission volumes and outlays along with the Medicare monthly industry data to May reveal monthly trends continue to be volatile. Claims growth remains above pre-pandemic levels, up 1.9% in May and up 4.7% on pre-pandemic trends.

Until Medibank Private reactivates its aggregators strategy, Macquarie envisages downside risks for FY27 policyholder growth.

The broker forecasts 1% policyholder growth for the company in FY27, which compares with an estimate of 1.5% market growth after accounting for around -40 basis points of the rebate adjustments from 1 April 2027. Claims inflation will be the "watch point" for Macquarie at the August results.

The broker forecasts improving margins for private health insurers in the second half, amid the upfront increase in new premium rates. Target is raised to $4.90 from $4.80 and a Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $5.05 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.14, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Ahead of the June quarter updates, Newmont Corp remains preferred stock as well as Capricorn Metals ((CMM)), Genesis Minerals ((GMD)) and Catalyst Metals ((CYL)).

UBS continues to preference quality, defensive exposure with higher margin producers. Cost inflation is expected to be a key theme for FY27 guidance for gold producers.

Newmont Corp is Buy rated with a $180 target.

Target price is $180.00 Current Price is $136.18 Difference: $43.82
If NEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $188.20, suggesting upside of 40.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHF as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie's proprietary index that monitors private hospital admission volumes and outlays along with the Medicare monthly industry data to May reveal monthly trends continue to be volatile. Claims growth remains above pre-pandemic levels, up 1.9% in May and up 4.7% on pre-pandemic trends.

The broker forecasts 3% policyholder growth for nib Holdings in FY27, which compares with an estimate of 1.5% market growth, after accounting for -40 basis point impact of the rebate adjustment from 1 April 2027.

Macquarie includes a $0.10 special dividend in its forecasts for the insurer in the first half and does not expect a cost reduction program to be announced at the results. Underperform retained. Target edges down to $6.05 from $6.10.

Target price is $6.05 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: minus $1.15 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.35, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Buy (1) -

UBS lifts the target price on Northern Star Resources to $24.05 from $23.75 with production pre-reported for the June quarter.

The gold producer is expected to announce its quarterly update on July 29. The analyst expects higher costs.

Buy rated.

Target price is $24.05 Current Price is $20.31 Difference: $3.74
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.08, suggesting upside of 36.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NWL as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans believes Netwealth Group's first major broker client win with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management validates its Integrated Holder Identification Number (iHIN) offering and strengthens medium-term growth prospects.

iHIN is designed to combine the benefits of a traditional stockbroking HIN with the administration, reporting and portfolio management features of a wrap platform.

The broker expects the agreement to drive a step-up in net flows from FY27, despite slightly softer FY26 flows, while increased investment in technology and products will weigh on margins in the near term.

The analyst's forecast net flows for FY27-FY28 are upgraded, although earnings forecasts are trimmed to reflect lower revenue and earnings (EBITDA) margins.

Morgans retains an Accumulate rating and lowers the target by -$1.50 to $27.50.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $23.49 Difference: $4.01
If NWL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.86, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORA as Accumulate (2) -

Post the "downbeat" data from liquor retailers Coles Group ((COL)) and Endeavour Group ((EDV)), Ord Minnett has downgraded earnings forecasts for Orora to account for a decline in volumes.

In the US, Nielsen data shows American spirits volumes have declined by -7% y/y in the three months to June. In Europe, spirits volumes are down -3.5% y/y in the three months to June.

EPS forecasts are lowered by -0.8% for FY26, -13% for FY27, and -11.7% for FY28 to account for lower volumes and higher fixed operating costs as it is challenging to ramp or, or in this instance, scale down production for a glass manufacturing kiln and process.

Target price is $1.55 from $1.70, previously with an Accumulate rating retained.

The broker also flags a sizable write-down in the value of its Saverglass business.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.175
If ORA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.63, suggesting upside of 18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observes recent weakness in the materials sector stems from profit-taking after a run of 18 months and this creates a "pullback opportunity" to rotate into commodities that have strong demand fundamentals, such as in uranium and copper.

Paladin Energy remains a key price beneficiary in uranium, with the broker noting a clean production year is expected in FY27. Overweight maintained. Target is reduced to $11.95 from $13.65. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $11.95 Current Price is $9.51 Difference: $2.44
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.95, suggesting upside of 34.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley observes recent weakness in the materials sector stems from profit-taking after a run of 18 months and this creates a "pullback opportunity" to rotate into commodities that have strong demand fundamentals, such as in uranium and copper.

Rio Tinto is downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight amid flattening momentum in aluminium and potential merger-talk likely to be revived post August 5.

The broker envisages some near-term volume growth in Simandou, Oyu Tolgoi and lithium but medium-term growth visibility is more limited amid lower copper exposure versus peers.

Target is reduced to $149.00 from $171.50. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $149.00 Current Price is $163.85 Difference: minus $14.85 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $174.67, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMD as Outperform (1) -

ResMed has sold its MatrixCare business for US$490m in an all-cash deal with Frazier Healthcare Partners. Macquarie considers this divestment strategically sound, allowing the company to focus on faster-growing core areas.

The MatrixCare care end markets have structural headwinds amid lower patient volumes post Covid. Net proceeds from the transaction will be returned to shareholders and for general corporate purposes.

The company also provided an update on the Noctrix acquisition, with US$30m in revenue expected in FY27 albeit dilutive to EPS by -US$0.20. The broker maintains an Outperform rating and the target edges up to $46.60 from $46.50.

Target price is $46.60 Current Price is $31.19 Difference: $15.41
If RMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.73, suggesting upside of 35.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes ResMed's sale of MatrixCare sharpens management's focus on the core sleep and respiratory care businesses. Proceeds are expected to fund an expanded share buyback and general corporate purposes.

MatrixCare provides an Electronic Health Record and out-of-hospital care management software.

The broker notes the US$490m sale price is below the US$750m paid in 2018 and estimates the divestment will dilute FY26 non-GAAP EBIT and profit by around -3%.

Positively, deploying the proceeds into share buybacks is expected to limit the impact to around -1% earnings per share dilution.

Morgan Stanley notes the recently acquired Noctrix Health, which develops treatments for Restless Legs Syndrome (RLS), is expected to reduce FY27 non-GAAP earnings per share by around -US20c.

Unchanged Equal-weight rating with a US$230 target price.  Industry View: In-Line.

Current Price is $31.19. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $40.73, suggesting upside of 35.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RMD as Buy (1) -

ResMed announced the sale of its MatrixCare unit, a supplier of software to manage post operative out of hospital care for seniors for US$400m in cash.

The net proceeds will fund a capital return to shareholders with an accelerated share buyback program, Ord Minnett notes.

The business is being bought by private equity and was complementary to ResMed rather than core to its sleep apnoea operations.

Management also reiterated FY26 guidance for an operating margin of 62%-63%, an expense to sales ratio of 19%-20% and an R&D-to-sales ratio of 6%-7%.

EPS forecasts are tweaked higher. Target is trimmed to $36.60 from $36.80. No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $36.60 Current Price is $31.19 Difference: $5.41
If RMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.73, suggesting upside of 35.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RMS as Buy (1) -

UBS lifts the target price on Ramelius Resources to $4.90 from $4.85 ahead of the June quarter update.

Buy rated.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $2.96 Difference: $1.94
If RMS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.95, suggesting upside of 66.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley observes recent weakness in the materials sector stems from profit-taking after a run of 18 months and this creates a "pullback opportunity" to rotate into commodities that have strong demand fundamentals, such as in uranium and copper.

US tariff decisions remain the risk in copper, yet the broker considers stockpiles as strategic with the downside capped if tariffs potentially push COMEX copper back to around US$6.85/lb.

Sandfire Resources is upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight, as the stock is now within 5% of the target, which moves to $17.35 from $16.00. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $17.35 Current Price is $18.28 Difference: minus $0.93 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.38, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SHV as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes almond prices have continued to rebound from lows with the US price up 11% year-on-year for the 2025 and 2026 crop.

At the same time the Australian dollar has weakened and since the start of 2026 Select Harvests has shed around -20% of its value while Australian dollar almond prices have gained 3%.

The broker points out the correlation of the share price to almond prices has completely broken down since 2024, which was the time when issues around supply chain and production shortfalls emerged.

While there has been a series of disappointing results in recent years, Bell Potter assesses the fundamental drivers of the business are improving and a Buy rating is retained. Target is $5.30.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: $1.37
If SHV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SVL as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans initiates coverage on Silver Mines, highlighting the Bowdens Silver Project in NSW as an asymmetric investment opportunity offering rare, pure-play exposure to silver.

It is believed that improving silver prices, permitting progress and the upcoming definitive feasibility study (DFS) will narrow the stock's discount to intrinsic value.

Bowdens hosts Australia's largest undeveloped silver resource and is expected to generate first production in FY30, with permitting and financing the key remaining milestones, the broker suggests.

Morgans begins with a Speculative Buy rating and $0.40 target, citing significant upside from higher silver prices and project optionality.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.275
If SVL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 220% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects Brent crude to average US$75/bbl in the September quarter before easing to US$70/bbl in the December quarter.

The broker’s 2027 forecast remains US$65/bbl, assuming an eventual US/Iran deal and the Strait of Hormuz remaining open.

Negotiations are expected to remain difficult, creating periodic price rallies tied to geopolitical risk.

The analysts recommend selling oil rallies rather than chasing prices lower, as the market is expected to normalise.

This call is consistent with a view geopolitical risk premiums will fade over 2026-27, the report concludes.

Citi retains a Neutral rating for Woodside Energy with an unchanged target price of $29.50.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $28.87 Difference: $0.63
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.44, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WTC as Buy (1) -

Citi believes WiseTech Global faces greater near-term revenue uncertainty as the company prioritises customer adoption of its new commercial model.

AI feature releases and migration of DSV, one of CargoWise's largest enterprise customers, are expected to create additional headwinds.

The broker lowers its FY26-FY28 profit forecasts by -2%-17%, expecting revenue growth to slow and the shares to remain range-bound ahead of the FY26 result.

Despite these challenges, Citi expects earnings (EBITDA) margins to recover above 50% in FY27 as cost reductions offset weaker revenue. A positive long-term view on WiseTech's AI opportunity is also maintained.

Citi retains a Buy rating and cuts the target price by -21% to $52.00.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $34.65 Difference: $17.35
If WTC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.84, suggesting upside of 102.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources