Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates A4N as Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Alpha HPA continues to execute well on construction of its Gladstone Stage 2 plant, according to Ord Minnett, while strong customer demand for the company's product supports the long-term growth outlook.

Commentary notes capital expenditure remains in line with management's revised 2026 budget. The company is working to secure the proposed $400m NAIF and Export Finance Australia loan after meeting customer letter of intent (LOI) requirements.

Securing the government-backed funding is expected to improve confidence the project is fully financed, with few other near-term catalysts during construction.

The broker upgrades its rating to Speculative Buy from Accumulate and retains a 90c target.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.355
If A4N meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.15, suggesting upside of 117.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AIA as Neutral (3) -

Citi retains a Neutral rating on Auckland International Airport, warning weak June passenger traffic has increased downside risk to FY27 earnings.

Domestic and international passenger volumes fell around -4% in June and remain -13%-16% below pre-covid levels. It's noted Middle East tensions and higher oil prices are threatening further airline capacity cuts in the first half.

Softer traffic is also expected to weigh on higher-margin retail and car parking revenue.

While cautious near term, Citi expects passenger volumes to recover, supporting around 19% earnings per share growth in FY28 as the PSE5 pricing period is finalised. Target NZ$8.80.

Current Price is $7.09. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ALC as Buy (1) -

Alcidion Group announced a robust 4Q cash update with revenue up 26% y/y, albeit slightly below Bell Potter's forecast as contracted revenue is moved to FY27 from FY26.

Net quarterly cash flow rose to $7.7m, up 5% y/y, with this quarter typically strong and assisted by upfront licence payment from UH Sussex.

Post the UH Sussex contract signing and the acquisition of Kyra in May, the broker expects Alcidion will generate ARR base of over $28m at the start of FY27.

Target price moves down to 15c from 16c with the Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.058
If ALC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AUB as Buy (1) -

In reviewing insurance and broker coverage, UBS marks to market EPS revisions that are mostly positive. Strong medium-term value is envisaged for brokers such as AUB Group despite a cyclically soft commercial rate environment.

Minor revisions to EPS primarily reflect yield movements on cash trust balances net of interest expense and FX. Buy rating. Target is reduced to $33 from $34.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $28.33 Difference: $4.67
If AUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.13, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects stronger metal prices to support higher earnings for BHP Group and Rio Tinto following their June quarter production updates.

The broker believes upcoming results will reinforce the ongoing shift in earnings towards base metals, with iron ore contributing comfortably below 50% of earnings for both miners.

Both companies are expected to reaffirm capital expenditure guidance, while medium-term growth discussions are likely to remain focused on copper.

For BHP Group: Neutral. Target $63.

Target price is $63.00 Current Price is $60.63 Difference: $2.37
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $60.88, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BSL as Buy (1) -

UBS believes BlueScope Steel is entering a more attractive phase as capital expenditure peaks and stronger free cash flow (FCF) supports higher shareholder returns.

The analysts resume coverage with a Buy rating following the expiry of research restrictions related to Steel Dynamics and SGH Ltd's proposed acquisition of the company.

The broker expects FCF to improve materially from FY27 as capital expenditure declines and North Star earnings remain structurally above pre-tariff levels.

UBS also believes consensus is too bearish on US steel spreads, arguing industry consolidation, tariff support and healthy market fundamentals should keep pricing higher than expected.

The target is raised to $37.50 from $27.50.

Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $32.35 Difference: $5.15
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.27, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

At FY26 results, UBS expects CSL to deliver on its revised FY26 profit guidance but believes competitive market conditions will result in a cautious FY27 outlook.

The broker forecasts broadly flat FY27 profit despite around -$300m of cost savings, as weaker earnings from Vifor offset improving performance at Behring.

UBS expects Behring's margins to recover on lower plasma collection costs and easier comparisons, whilst continued pricing pressure is likely to weigh on Vifor.

The broker retains a Buy rating with an unchanged $158 target.

Target price is $158.00 Current Price is $115.75 Difference: $42.25
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $130.84, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -

Fineos Corp announced EUR1.7m free cash flow to June 2026 with management retaining 2026 guidance of EUR147m–EUR152m.

Macquarie forecasts EUR147m.

Due to seasonal factors, Fineos generates a large proportion of free cash flow in 1Q. The year-to-date cash flow is below the previous four quarters.

No change to $3.50 target price and Outperform rating.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $1.595
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GDG as Buy (1) -

Generation Development impressed the Bell Potter analyst with the 4Q update, highlighting managed accounts were a stand-out as organic flows were boosted over the period.

The broker was surprised by the scale of the growth and there was no slowdown. Managed account FUM was a 5% beat at $40.5bn and investment bond FUM also beat by 5%.

Life recorded net flows of $341m against $303m forecast and at this rate, the group is on course to exceed its $10bn target over the next 3-5 years. The tax reforms are expected to add growth from here, the analyst states.

Evidentia flows and FUM beat expectations with increased activity and mandates, as well as $1.8bn from the Explore migration as expected and a further $280m.

EPS forecasts are tweaked higher. Target price unchanged at $6.20 with Buy rating retained.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $1.62
If GDG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.21, suggesting upside of 43.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GDG as Buy (1) -

Citi believes Generation Development's June quarter update has restored confidence in the company's medium-term growth outlook after stronger-than-expected net inflows.

Fourth quarter net flows rose to $1.4bn, beating expectations on both a headline and core basis, supported by improving adviser activity, stronger sales momentum and potential mandate wins, the analyst explains.

Citi has modestly increased its FY27 net flow forecast to $7.7bn and lifted FY26-FY28 earnings forecasts by 1%-2%. The latter reflects a higher funds under management (FUM) base and stronger investment bond sales.

The broker retains a Buy rating, lifting its target to $5.70 from $5.50.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $1.12
If GDG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.21, suggesting upside of 43.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GDG as Outperform (1) -

After some recent quarterly misses, Generation Development announced a beat for Evidentia with FUM up 37% y/y, which came in 6% above Macquarie's forecast and 5% above consensus at $40.5bn.

The pipeline of prospective clients for Evidentia remains robust as highlighted by the analyst.

Investment bonds also beat consensus with net inflows up 34% y/y to $341m and above the broker's forecast of $330m. Generation Life is starting to witness some positive momentum post the Div296 changes and growing interest after the CGT tax changes.

Lonsec Research and Ratings increased 9% y/y. EPS forecasts are tweaked higher by 2% in FY26 and 3% in FY27.

Target price is raised to $5.05 from $4.90 with an Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $0.47
If GDG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.21, suggesting upside of 43.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GDG as Overweight (1) -

At first glance, Morgan Stanley notes Generation Development produced a better-than-expected June quarter, beating estimates on both investment bonds and Evidentia net flows. Market movements were also stronger.

The company has highlighted the tax reforms in the 2026 Commonwealth Budget will widen the pool of investors likely to consider investment bonds and the impact should emerge over several years from FY27.

Target is steady at $6.40. Overweight reiterated. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $1.82
If GDG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.21, suggesting upside of 43.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDG as Buy (1) -

Generation Development has delivered a strong result for the June quarter with Morgans noting both the IB business and Evidentia are outperforming market expectations. Estimates for  EPS are lifted by up to 5% over the forecast period amid higher sales expectations.

The broker points out the share price has pulled back since late last year and the prior re-rating was justified by the company's strong position in structural growth areas. A Buy rating is maintained with the target raised to $6.89 from $6.28.

Target price is $6.89 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $2.31
If GDG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.21, suggesting upside of 43.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GPT as Buy (1) -

Citi believes GPT Group's Macarthur Square remains a high-quality asset, supported by strong leasing momentum, a favourable demographic backdrop and significant long-term development potential.

The broker highlights the shopping centre's 99.3% occupancy, strong tenant productivity and 31% growth in moving annual turnover since 2019. A 2.8-hectare surplus land bank also provides optionality for future mixed-use or retail expansion, the analyst explains.

Sydney's south-west growth corridor is expected to underpin rental growth, supported by forecast population growth of around 20% over the next five years.

The broker retains a Buy rating, noting GPT shares are trading at around a -10% discount to the last reported net tangible assets (NTA) of $5.53. Buy. Target $6.00.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: $1.08
If GPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.57, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Buy (1) -

In reviewing insurance and broker coverage, UBS marks to market EPS revisions that are mostly positive, amid a quieter June quarter for catastrophes and stronger investment income that reflected improved equity and fixed income returns.

Across insurers, domestic general insurance exposures are preferred, reflecting solid momentum in Australian home & motor relative to commercial classes.

Insurance Australia Group is rated Buy with the target raised to $9.45 from $8.80.

Target price is $9.45 Current Price is $8.43 Difference: $1.02
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.09, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JHX as Upgrade to Hold from Trim (3) -

James Hardie Industries beat expectations in its June quarter, which Morgans largely attributes to execution and above-market growth rather than an improving US housing market.

The broker continues to expect the business will follow traditional earnings seasonality, with larger quarters in June and March.

Higher growth in FY27 reduces the heavy lifting required in FY28 to achieve consensus forecasts for EPS and on this basis the broker upgrades earnings estimates and raises the target to $40 from $36. Rating is upgraded to Hold from Trim.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $36.99 Difference: $3.01
If JHX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.68, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JHX as Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett believes James Hardie is gaining market share in the US siding and trim market after delivering a stronger-than-expected June quarter trading update.

Based on preliminary numbers, June-quarter earnings (EBITDA) and earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be around 10% and 17%, respectively, above prior market expectations. Stronger siding and trim sales are the key drivers, the analyst notes.

Ord Minnett has lifted FY27-FY29 earnings forecasts by 11%-14%, citing market share gains, a new sales strategy and contributions from the AZEK acquisition.

The broker raises its target to $42.00 from $31.50 and upgrades to Accumulate from Hold.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $36.99 Difference: $5.01
If JHX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.68, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JHX as Neutral (3) -

UBS observes James Hardie Industries, at first glance, delivered a better-than-expected result in the first quarter with EBITDA 10% ahead of guidance and expectations.

The result was underpinned by stronger siding & trim sales as well as operations outside of the US. The company pointed out the results reflect above-market growth rather than an improved US housing market. Neutral rating and $30 target.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $36.99 Difference: minus $6.99 (current price is over target).
If JHX meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.68, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Neutral (3) -

Karoon Energy served up a mixed 2Q2026 update according to Macquarie with a miss on production of 1.08MMboe, some -6% below forecasts and -5% lower than consensus expectations.

Both Bauna and Who Dat missed but sales revenue beat on Bauna due to timing on shipment volumes, the analyst states.

Guidance for 2026 remained unchanged. Macquarie forecasts 7.4MMBoe which is around the bottom end of guidance.

Net debt was above expectations and 2.8m shares at an average $2.02 per share were repurchased in 2Q.

EPS forecasts are upgraded 39% in 2026 on higher Bauna 2Q revenues on increased production forecasts.

Target price rises 5% to $1.55. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: minus $0.065 (current price is over target).
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.78, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates KAR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley expects a muted reaction to the June quarter result from Karoon Energy, which included unchanged 2026 guidance. June quarter revenue was US$116.4m, down -27% on the prior corresponding quarter.

At Bauna production was down -63%, reflecting a planned 28-day maintenance and temporary shut-down, while two cargoes attracted the 12% Brazil export tax which runs to 8 September 2026.

Who Dat production was down -56% on the prior corresponding quarter, reflecting the E riser leak, with the company expecting the next phase of remediation to occur in the current quarter and production to resume in the fourth quarter of 2027.

Equal-weight. Target is $1.58. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $1.58 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: minus $0.035 (current price is over target).
If KAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.78, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

In reviewing insurance and broker coverage, UBS marks to market EPS revisions that are mostly positive. In private health insurance, valuations appear undemanding relative to the market, yet rising affordability pressures and medium-term margin risks keep the broker cautious.

For Medibank Private, UBS incorporates lower investment income amid wider credit spreads and raises the target to $5.15 from $4.85. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $5.11 Difference: $0.04
If MPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.20, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

Post Macquarie Group's AGM, Morgan Stanley believes earnings risks are tilted to the upside which can continue to underpin a premium valuation rating, as well as above its five-year average.

Management offered no changes to FY27 guidance but the commentary around 1Q has offered a higher degree of confidence to the analyst around the improving revenue outlook for Commodities & Global Markets, MacCap and Asset Management.

EPS forecasts are raised by 5% for FY27 and target price is lifted 4% to $273, from $263.

No change in Overweight rating. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $273.00 Current Price is $253.75 Difference: $19.25
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $254.76, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MQG as Hold (3) -

At the Macquarie Group AGM, Morgans notes the trading update was "broadly sound" and consistent with expectations. EPS estimates for FY27 are lifted by 1% and FY28 by 3% amid slightly stronger commodity and global market earnings.

Asset management net profit was down in the first quarter, driven by divestment of the North American and European public investments business in the first half.

Morgans considers the business a quality franchise that is exposed to structural growth in infrastructure and green energy. While trading around 19x PE, the stock is currently fair value and a Hold rating is maintained. Target rises to $255.80 from $248.32.

Target price is $255.80 Current Price is $253.75 Difference: $2.05
If MQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $254.76, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MXI as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett assesses a "solid" FY26 preliminary result from MaxiPARTS despite subdued transport activity and ongoing competitive pressures.

The broker notes operating profit before tax exceeded guidance, supported by stronger cost discipline, while revenue remained within guidance and net cash improved following inventory optimisation.

Ord Minnett expects both revenue and profit to improve in FY27, supported by ongoing organic growth initiatives and recent acquisitions.

The broker retains its Buy rating and an unchanged target of $2.80.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $1.35
If MXI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

In reviewing insurance and broker coverage, UBS marks to market EPS revisions that are mostly positive.

In private health insurance, valuations appear undemanding relative to the market, yet rising affordability pressures and medium-term margin risks keep the broker cautious.

For nib Holdings, the broker retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $7.60 from $7.05.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $7.47 Difference: $0.13
If NHF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.46, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NWH as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans asserts NRW Holdings is a "key pick" heading into the reporting season with strong earnings expected for FY26, and towards the upper end of guidance of $275m-$285m.

The capital expenditure cycle in resources is showing signs of accelerating, with benefits expected for the company's diversified contract mining business.

Forecasts for FY26 are unchanged while FY27 EBITDA is increased by 4%. Target is raised to $8.00 from $6.60 and an Accumulate rating is maintained.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.10 Difference: $0.9
If NWH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.85, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PNV as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter downgrades PolyNovo to Hold from Buy with a lower target of $1 from $2 post the FY26 revenue announcement.

Notably, growth slowed in FY26 in both absolute and percentage terms, meaning a miss of some -6% against consensus expectations.

The US revenue slowed particularly in the 2H, down -2.6% against the prior half. Rest of the world sales rose around 20% but were lower than the FY25 growth rate of 30%.

The analyst highlights an absence of further information or detail in relation to the strategic direction of entry into the outpatient care market in the US.

Earnings (EBITDA) forecasts for FY26/FY27 are cut by -32% and -51%, respectively, on lower revenue forecasts.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.075
If PNV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.44, suggesting upside of 65.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects stronger metal prices to support higher earnings for BHP Group and Rio Tinto following their June quarter production updates.

The broker believes upcoming results will reinforce the ongoing shift in earnings towards base metals, with iron ore contributing comfortably below 50% of earnings for both miners.

Both companies are expected to reaffirm capital expenditure guidance, while medium-term growth discussions are likely to remain focused on copper.

The target for Rio Tinto falls to $171 from $185. Neutral rating maintained.

Target price is $171.00 Current Price is $162.74 Difference: $8.26
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $171.33, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Buy (1) -

Following South32's June quarter update, Citi expects earnings resilience to underpin a strong balance sheet and support higher shareholder returns.

The broker believes investor expectations for increased capital management have risen following the proposed aluminium business demerger.

Citi expects management to provide greater clarity on capital allocation at the upcoming FY26 result.

The broker retains its Buy rating on South32. Target falls to $5.30 from $6.10.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.66 Difference: $0.64
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SEK as Buy (1) -

Seek reported its June new job index showed Australian jobs down -5.22% year-on-year and flat month-on-month. UBS points out this is the second month of mid single-digit declines, which signals downside risk to consensus estimates for FY27 volume growth.

The broker awaits NZ data, which has provided offsets recently given the strength of hiring in that region. Seek is Buy rated with an $18.20 target price.

Target price is $18.20 Current Price is $13.10 Difference: $5.1
If SEK meets the UBS target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.78, suggesting upside of 53.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

On further inspection, post the initial response, Macquarie retains a $20 target while lifting FY26 EPS forecasts up 16% on the stronger update.

FY27 EPS forecasts are trimmed by -8% on lower copper guidance and higher taxes. Unchanged Neutral rating.

****

In a first take, Macquarie notes Sandfire Resources announced a "beat" on 4Q26 copper equivalent production of 47.6kt, some 7% better than expected and 3% above consensus.

Both Motheo and Matsa came in better than expected with the former's production 11% above consensus due to higher-grade volumes from the A4 pit.

Matsa was stronger due to the copper/silver mix. Cash costs positively were a beat on both. Revenue, earnings (EBITDA) beat consensus by 12%/10% respectively on higher production and lower costs.

Net cash came in at US$353m at the end of FY26, 32% above consensus.

FY27 production guidance was in line with the current mid-point forecasts for both the analyst and consensus. Neutral, Target $20.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $19.36 Difference: $0.64
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.73, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Equal-weight (3) -

Sandfire Resources delivered FY27 copper production guidance that was lower than Morgan Stanley expected, reflecting lower output at Matsa and Motheo, offset by stronger zinc, lead and silver.

Production was still strong in the June quarter with copper output of 34,200t and 8% above the broker's estimates. Motheo produced 18,000t and Matsa 16,200t. Sales also beat estimates.

Implied unit costs of US$66.90/t were 2% ahead of forecasts. Equal-weight. Target is $17.35. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $17.35 Current Price is $19.36 Difference: minus $2.01 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.73, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

Sandfire Resources produced 34,200t of copper in the June quarter, 13% ahead of UBS estimates amid record mill throughput and strong grades at both Motheo and Matsa.

The broker had been concerned about whether the business would make guidance given the challenges encountered earlier in the year. FY27 guidance for copper production is in line with expectations, around 100,000t.

UBS retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $20.55 from $20.70.

Target price is $20.55 Current Price is $19.36 Difference: $1.19
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.73, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGH as Buy (1) -

UBS has resumed coverage of SGH Ltd with a Buy rating following the expiry of research restrictions related to SGH's proposed joint acquisition of BlueScope Steel with US-based Steel Dynamics.

The broker believes SGH remains well positioned for further acquisitions, supported by balance sheet capacity and strong cash generation across its portfolio.

UBS expects low-to-mid single-digit earnings (EBIT) growth in both FY26 and FY27, with margin improvement at Boral offsetting softer growth at WesTrac and Coates.

The target is decreased by -$1.00 to $58.00.

Target price is $58.00 Current Price is $43.09 Difference: $14.91
If SGH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $52.83, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SNS as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes SenSen Networks announced its quarterly activities report for 4Q and highlights it was a positive quarter for both cash flow and ARR.

Cash received rose 31% y/y bringing FY26 receipts to 14% growth y/y. ARR rose 17% y/y due to new customers and growth in revenue from existing customers as well as 35% y/y growth in usage revenue, the broker states.

Earnings (EBITDA) forecasts are lowered by -17% for FY26, -26% for FY27 and -28% for FY28 due to a more conservative approach by the analyst as there is an ongoing change to ARR from upfront revenue recognition.

No change to Buy rating. Target slips to 8c from 10c. 

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.051
If SNS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 176% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

Citi believes Santos is approaching an inflection point as major growth projects de-risk, improving confidence in higher cash flow and shareholder returns.

The broker highlights Barossa is ramping towards nameplate production, while Pikka continues to progress well. This has increased the analyst's confidence a revised capital management framework will be announced with the February result.

Santos is trading at a discount to peers despite major projects coming online, Citi highlights.

Buy rating. Target $8.30.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.85 Difference: $0.45
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.20, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

On further inspection post the initial response below, Macquarie lifts the target to $9.05 and retains an Outperform rating, pointing out the stock is now trading around a -5% discount to the XRG/Carlyle offer with Brent over US$20/bbl higher, and growth outlook improved.

EPS forecasts are lowered by -27% for 2026 and -4% for 2027 due to higher depreciation rates. No impact on the free cash flow DPS forecasts.

****

In a first take, Macquarie notes Santos' 2Q2026 production of 23.1MMboe was -3% below expectation and -4% lower than consensus due to a softer Alaska, WA and NT result.

Revenue over the second quarter also missed the analyst's forecast by -12% and consensus by -10% on lower KNG, gas and oil revenues due to cargo timing issues.

Free cash flow of US$376m for 1H2026 implies 2Q2026 of down -US$5m again due to cargo timing with around US$300m of proceeds from 2 Barossa and three PNG equity cargoes expected in July.

Sales guidance for 2026 was narrowed to 102MMboe-108MMboe and capex guidance retained.

Outperform rated. Target $9.05.

Target price is $9.05 Current Price is $7.85 Difference: $1.2
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.20, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates STO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley anticipates a negative reaction to the Santos production and first half earnings guidance. June quarter production was 23.1mmboe, down -5% versus the broker's forecasts.

Production guidance for 2026 has been reduced to 99-105mmboe and sales volumes narrowed to 102-108mmboe.

First-time earnings guidance for the first half implies EBITDA of US$1.5bn at the mid point, again lower than Morgan Stanley anticipated and stemming from LNG cargo timing and third-party gas costs during the ramp up at Barossa.

Overweight rating  and $7.67 target. Industry view In-Line.

Target price is $7.67 Current Price is $7.85 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.20, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Buy (1) -

Santos' June quarter result was weaker than expected, but UBS continues to see significant upside as Barossa and Pikka move towards full production.

The broker notes commissioning delays lowered FY26 production guidance and prompted a -31% cut to FY26 earnings forecasts.

Higher third-party LNG purchases and slower production ramp-up also weighed on first-half free cash flow and dividend expectations.

The broker has reduced its interim dividend forecast to US8c from US11c previously and lowered its FY26 dividend forecast to US33c from US42c.

UBS retains a Buy rating and an unchanged $8.30 target, expecting a strong second-half lift in free cash flow as Barossa and Pikka ramp up.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.85 Difference: $0.45
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.20, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WES as Neutral (3) -

Wesfarmers has announced the final investment decision on Mt Holland expansion, giving the go-ahead to move forward to double total production to around 760kt p.a. beyond 2030, Macquarie notes.

Capex is expected to rise significantly with Wesfarmers' 50% share at $645m-$715m. Construction of the second concentrator is expected to start in 1H28 and initial spodumene concentrate production in 2H30.

The analyst believes there is risk of additional supply response for the lithium market, while management has tested returns under a range of pricing assumptions.

Target price lifts to $88 from $86 with no change in Neutral rating.

Target price is $88.00 Current Price is $88.11 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $79.35, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ZZZ as Equal-weight (3) -

29Metals delivered weaker copper production yet stronger byproducts in the June quarter, Morgan Stanley observes. 2026 guidance has been maintained with first half copper/zinc of 11,200t/3,200t within expected ranges.

2026 guidance for gold and silver is also in line with expectations, with first half gold production at 5,400 ounces and silver at 255,000 ounces.

The broker observes water levels are no longer a restriction for restarting production of Capricorn whilst approval of the tailings storage facility 3 is a critical catalyst for a final decision. Equal-weight retained. Target is reduced to 26c from 28c. Test 123.!!

Target price is $0.26

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources