Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates 29M as Hold (3) -

Morgans remains positive on copper, lifting its long-term price forecast by 14% to US$4.85/lb and increasing 2026-2029 forecasts by between 4%-5%. The broker anticipates structural demand from electrification and ongoing supply constraints.

Near-term volatility from global conflict, tariff uncertainty and interest rate risks is expected, yet weak mine supply, negative treatment charges and refined copper constraints will likely underpin prices.

Overall, the analysts see the recent pullback in copper equities as an attractive buying opportunity.

A Hold rating is maintained for 29Metals and the target is raised by 1c to 27c.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.035
If 29M meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.33, suggesting upside of 33.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ADH as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Post Adairs' FY26 trading update which revealed continuing weakness in Focus on Furniture, Morgans downgrades the stock to Accumulate from Buy.

The retailer is expected to generate positive sales growth at the mid-point of guidance of around 3.7% y/y with some improvement in gross margin over the 2H26. This is expected to continue into FY27.

Guidance around Mocka indicates ongoing strength in sales, with around 22% revenue growth. Focus on Furniture sales were indicated to decline at the midpoint of guidance and are significantly below the analyst's forecast.

EPS forecasts are lowered to align with the latest guidance by -8% for FY26 and -19.4% for FY27. The target price is reduced to $1.70.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.165
If ADH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.56, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AIS as Buy (1) -

Morgans remains positive on copper, lifting its long-term price forecast by 14% to US$4.85/lb and increasing 2026-2029 forecasts by between 4%-5%. The broker anticipates structural demand from electrification and ongoing supply constraints.

Near-term volatility from global conflict, tariff uncertainty and interest rate risks is expected, yet weak mine supply, negative treatment charges and refined copper constraints will likely underpin prices.

Overall, the analysts see the recent pullback in copper equities as an attractive buying opportunity.

The target for Aeris Resources falls to 53c from 70c after the broker updates its share count following completion of the Peel Mining ((PEX)) acquisition. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $0.53 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.175
If AIS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.69, suggesting upside of 85.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AOV as Buy (1) -

UBS assesses the macro environment has become more challenging for Amotiv, amid interest-rate increases, inflation and changes to capital gains. Middle East disruptions will flow through to diesel prices and have more of an impact on key segments for its 4WD accessories/protection products.

While business diversity means that around 30% of FY26 EBITDA has a primary exposure to these headwinds the broker also envisages scope to accelerate the Amotiv Unified cost-cutting program.

A softer macro environment is incorporated for FY27 yet, given the lower exposure to the headwinds relative to other automotive names and relative valuation, a Buy rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $9.80 from $11.40.

Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $6.55 Difference: $3.25
If AOV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.99, suggesting upside of 38.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ARB as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS is a "strong believer" in the ARB Corp brand and the incremental growth potential from expansion in the US, yet the challenging operating environment gives cause for consideration.

The VFACTS index for the company continues to deteriorate and the impact on petrol/diesel from the Middle East disruptions has a more negative impact on large SUVs/4WDs. This has also further accelerated electric vehicles versus internal combustion engines.

The broker suspects a negative wealth effect will not only result in fewer new vehicle purchases but also reduce the "add-ons".

For investors willing to look through potential short-term weakness UBS still envisages good medium-term value but prefers to wait for a better view of what could be an earnings trough. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy and the target lowered to $18.70 from $25.50.

Target price is $18.70 Current Price is $17.70 Difference: $1
If ARB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.98, suggesting upside of 36.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Hold (3) -

Morgans remains positive on copper, lifting its long-term price forecast by 14% to US$4.85/lb and increasing 2026-2029 forecasts by between 4%-5%. The broker anticipates structural demand from electrification and ongoing supply constraints.

Near-term volatility from global conflict, tariff uncertainty and interest rate risks is expected, yet weak mine supply, negative treatment charges and refined copper constraints will likely underpin prices.

Overall, the analysts see the recent pullback in copper equities as an attractive buying opportunity.

A Hold rating is maintained for BHP Group and the target is raised to $59.80 from $54.90.

Target price is $59.80 Current Price is $56.87 Difference: $2.93
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $61.05, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBO as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett believes Cobram Estate Olives remains well placed to extract value from its Californian Olive Ranch acquisition.

The broker holds this opinion despite lowering its near-term earnings expectations after management lodged a disputed US$31.9m purchase price adjustment claim.

The broker notes the 2026 Australian harvest of 12.1m litres was around -7% below forecast but should provide sufficient oil to meet FY27 branded and packaged sales demand.

FY26 and FY27 EBITDA forecasts are reduced by -10% and -13%, respectively, reflecting lower harvest volumes, Californian Olive Ranch earnings risk and input cost pressures.

Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating and trims its target to $3.77 from $3.78.

Target price is $3.77 Current Price is $3.75 Difference: $0.02
If CBO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

UBS observes, while geopolitical uncertainty remains a risk, renewed inflation concerns in the US and the prospect of higher interest rates, along with capital markets activity boosting balances, have reinvigorated margin income growth prospects going into FY27.

EPS estimates are lifted by 3.8% for FY27 and FY28 for Computershare and the target is raised to $39.70 from $33.00. The broker notes the stock is trading at 17.3x PE, in line with its five-year average, and offers little upside potential, underpinning a Neutral rating.

Target price is $39.70 Current Price is $39.43 Difference: $0.27
If CPU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.78, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CSC as Buy (1) -

Morgans remains positive on copper, lifting its long-term price forecast by 14% to US$4.85/lb and increasing 2026-2029 forecasts by between 4%-5%. The broker anticipates structural demand from electrification and ongoing supply constraints.

Near-term volatility from global conflict, tariff uncertainty and interest rate risks is expected, yet weak mine supply, negative treatment charges and refined copper constraints will likely underpin prices.

Overall, the analysts see the recent pullback in copper equities as an attractive buying opportunity.

A Buy rating is maintained for Capstone Copper and the target is raised to $18.00 from $15.70.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $12.25 Difference: $5.75
If CSC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.18, suggesting upside of 31.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EVN as Buy (1) -

Morgans remains positive on copper, lifting its long-term price forecast by 14% to US$4.85/lb and increasing 2026-2029 forecasts by between 4%-5%. The broker anticipates structural demand from electrification and ongoing supply constraints.

Near-term volatility from global conflict, tariff uncertainty and interest rate risks is expected, yet weak mine supply, negative treatment charges and refined copper constraints will likely underpin prices.

Overall, the analysts see the recent pullback in copper equities as an attractive buying opportunity.

A Buy rating is maintained for copper/gold producer Evolution Mining and the target is raised by $1.00 to $16.00.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $11.25 Difference: $4.75
If EVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.23, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JHX as Downgrade to Trim from Buy (4) -

Morgans downgrades James Hardie Industries to Trim from Buy post a 25% rally in the share price over the last three months.

EPS forecasts are unchanged but the analyst highlights they sit below consensus by -3% for FY27 and -11% for FY28.

Management's FY27 earnings (EBITDA) growth guidance of 4%–8% appears achievable, the broker states. Investor attention is likely to focus on FY28 guidance at the September investor day, with consensus currently forecasting 22% growth.

Morgans believes the US housing recovery will be deferred until FY29/FY30 with the building materials company only managing to generate high single-digit earnings growth over the medium term.

Target price falls to $36 from $39, applying a FY28 PER of 20x, which is considered fair value.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $34.85 Difference: $1.15
If JHX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.52, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY27:

Forecast for FY28:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates JIN as Hold (3) -

Jumbo Interactive announced an updated FY26 outlook prior to its scheduled results on August 27.

At the midpoint of FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance, the expected result sits 3% above Bell Potter's forecast and some -2% below consensus, albeit at the upper end of the range.

Underlying net profit after tax guidance is -3% below the analyst's forecast and -7% below consensus.

Dream UK earnings guidance (EBITDA) has been lowered due to a rise in business investment and seasonality, the broker explains. Whilst Dream US earnings guidance (EBITDA) has been upgraded due to a rise in the number of draws to 29 from 16, previously.

MS UK has been affected by higher-than-expected jackpots whilst new business wins have assisted MS Canada.

EPS forecasts are tweaked higher. Hold rating retained with a lift in the target price to $7.20 from $7.10.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: $0.02
If JIN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.20, suggesting upside of 27.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JIN as Outperform (1) -

Ahead of Jumbo Interactive's FY26 results (August 27), Macquarie's forecasts for Australian lottery volumes are unchanged, with digital penetration still expected to reach 50% by FY30.

The company is expected to report above trend growth in FY27, benefiting from lottery jackpot normalisation. Beyond this, the company will benefit from prize draw M&A annualisation and the RSL Queensland SaaS contract, the broker adds.

Outperform rating. The target is lowered to $9.50 from $10.50.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: $2.32
If JIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.20, suggesting upside of 27.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JIN as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett expects weaker jackpot activity in the second half of FY26 to weigh on earnings for Australia's Lottery sector. Prize pools fell -6%, driven by a -10% decline in jackpot pools and weaker app downloads, the analyst explains.

The broker forecasts lottery revenue declines for both Lottery Corp and Jumbo Interactive, although digital penetration is expected to continue rising steadily. Forecast earnings are downgraded by Ord Minnett for both companies.

While Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating for Jumbo Interactive, its target price falls to $6.90 from $9.20 given a forecast fall in lottery retail revenue of -10% for the second half of FY26. Jumbo's sales are skewed to large jackpot game draws, the analyst explains.

The broker also factors in higher reseller fees payable to The Lottery Corp from FY31 and assumes a 30% tax rate will apply to Jumbo's UK prize draws versus their current tax-free status.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If JIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.20, suggesting upside of 27.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MI6 as Buy (1) -

Minerals 260 announced its maiden ore reserve and preliminary feasibility study. Morgans points out Bullabulling is now confirmed as one of Australia's premier underdeveloped gold projects.

The study indicated around 150kozpa of production over the first 10-years with an IRR of 43% and a NPV of $2.3bn, the analyst explains, including a two-year payback period.

Notably, the study was finished on the prior mineral resource of 4.5Moz which has been lifted to 6.2Moz, leaving potential for additional reserve growth.

The market's negative reaction to the study is considered as highlighting concerns over the capital costs, rather than the project's quality.

Coverage of Minerals 260 is transferred to Flynn Tyson.

The stock retains a Buy rating and lower target of $1.38 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.38 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.78
If MI6 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 130% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.20, suggesting upside of 89.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MI6 as Buy (1) -

UBS points out the sell-off in Minerals 260 after outlining its prefeasibility study for the Bullabulling project  is probably due to the higher capital expenditure and lower average production presented.

The broker believes the market is discounting the options in the recently expanded resource base at 6.2m ounces, which could likely justify an expansion to 7.5mtpa.

Estimates for stage I capital expenditure have increased to $875m while stage 2 expenditure is reduced by -$80m as a partial offset.

UBS retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $0.90 from $1.15. Funding requirements remain modest but debt assumptions are increased by $100m and equity raising assumptions by the same amount.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.3
If MI6 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.20, suggesting upside of 89.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Morgans remains positive on copper, lifting its long-term price forecast by 14% to US$4.85/lb and increasing 2026-2029 forecasts by between 4%-5%. The broker anticipates structural demand from electrification and ongoing supply constraints.

Near-term volatility from global conflict, tariff uncertainty and interest rate risks is expected, yet weak mine supply, negative treatment charges and refined copper constraints will likely underpin prices.

Overall, the analysts see the recent pullback in copper equities as an attractive buying opportunity.

A Buy rating is maintained for gold/copper producer Newmont Corp, and the target is raised by $3.00 to $201.00.

Target price is $201.00 Current Price is $133.76 Difference: $67.24
If NEM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $188.80, suggesting upside of 38.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PNR as Buy (1) -

UBS flags the soft quarterly result from Pantoro Gold amid a contractor change-out and underperformance.

Norseman generated 18,000 ounces which was below expectations and which signals the full year production of 77,000 ounces will be below the bottom end of guidance of 86,000 ounces. The company is aiming for 90-105,000 ounces in FY27.

Cost estimates are in line with expectations. UBS notes the "patchy delivery" from the company means it trades at a discount to peers. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $3.60 from $5.10.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $1.99 Difference: $1.615
If PNR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 132.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QPM as No Rating (-1) -

Ord Minnett has withdrawn its investment recommendation on QPM Energy (previously Buy with a 10c target) after the company entered voluntary administration. The broker cites insufficient information to form a reliable investment view.

QPM was unable to secure the expected funding package for the 112MW Isaac Power Station, raising concerns over elevated debt levels and future cash flows, the analysts explain.

Administrators have been appointed to assess restructuring options while maintaining operations, with shares remaining suspended during the process.

Current Price is $0.01. Target price not assessed.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of the second quarter production outcomes for Rio Tinto, Macquarie expects iron ore, copper and aluminium will be in line with consensus. Around 84.1mt for Pilbara production shipments and 218,000t of consolidated copper production are anticipated.

The broker forecasts 15.4mt bauxite, 2mt in alumina and 840,000t in aluminium. Estimates for lithium at 15,000t in the June quarter are -4% below consensus. A Neutral rating is reiterated with a $180 target. First half results are expected on 29 July.

Target price is $180.00 Current Price is $158.52 Difference: $21.48
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $173.83, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Hold (3) -

Morgans remains positive on copper, lifting its long-term price forecast by 14% to US$4.85/lb and increasing 2026-2029 forecasts by between 4%-5%. The broker anticipates structural demand from electrification and ongoing supply constraints.

Near-term volatility from global conflict, tariff uncertainty and interest rate risks is expected, yet weak mine supply, negative treatment charges and refined copper constraints will likely underpin prices.

Overall, the analysts see the recent pullback in copper equities as an attractive buying opportunity.

A Hold rating is maintained for Rio Tinto and the target is raised by $5.00 to $165.00.

Target price is $165.00 Current Price is $158.52 Difference: $6.48
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $173.83, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Rio Tinto is aiming to lift copper production to around 1Mt by 2030 from 883kt in 2025, (consolidated) via the ramp up of Oyu Tolgoi to around 500kt on a 100% basis, UBS points out, as well as a recovery in Kennecott, albeit offset by lower Escondida volumes.

The analyst highlights Rio lacks "meaningful" growth in copper volumes which it was trying to address with the Glencore merger. Management may now increase volumes via organic growth, alongside growth in lithium, aluminium and iron ore (Simandou).

Over US$4bn is targeted to invest in its Argentina lithium business. Management also indicated in May the possibility of increasing Rio's stake in the Los Azules copper project (Argentina) from 17%, currently.

Neutral rated with a $177 target price.

Target price is $177.00 Current Price is $158.52 Difference: $18.48
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $173.83, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates S32 as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Morgans remains positive on copper, lifting its long-term price forecast by 14% to US$4.85/lb and increasing 2026-2029 forecasts by between 4%-5%. The broker anticipates structural demand from electrification and ongoing supply constraints.

Near-term volatility from global conflict, tariff uncertainty and interest rate risks is expected, yet weak mine supply, negative treatment charges and refined copper constraints will likely underpin prices.

Overall, the analysts see the recent pullback in copper equities as an attractive buying opportunity.

The target for South32 is raised by 40c to $4.90 and the rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: $1.08
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.01, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes copper prices should regain momentum from September despite subdued near-term demand, forecasting the metal will reach US$15,000/t within a year. The LME cash copper price is currently around US$13,100/t.

The broker notes headline copper consumption data has been distorted by last year's surge in Chinese renewable energy installations, while underlying global demand remains resilient and manufacturing sentiment robust.

Commentary notes near-term gains may be constrained by US copper tariff uncertainty and weaker gold prices through July and August, before a more supportive macro backdrop will likely drive prices higher.

The broker's target for Neutral-rated Sandfire Resources is $12.20.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $18.15 Difference: minus $5.95 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.64, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SFR as Buy (1) -

Morgans remains positive on copper, lifting its long-term price forecast by 14% to US$4.85/lb and increasing 2026-2029 forecasts by between 4%-5%. The broker anticipates structural demand from electrification and ongoing supply constraints.

Near-term volatility from global conflict, tariff uncertainty and interest rate risks is expected, yet weak mine supply, negative treatment charges and refined copper constraints will likely underpin prices.

Overall, the analysts see the recent pullback in copper equities as an attractive buying opportunity.

A Buy rating is maintained for Sandfire Resources and the target is raised to $22.00 from $20.40.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $18.15 Difference: $3.85
If SFR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.64, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLC as Outperform (1) -

Ahead of FY26 results (August 19), Macquarie's forecasts for Australian lottery volumes are unchanged, with digital penetration still expected to reach 50% by FY30.

Lottery Corp is expected to report above trend growth in FY27, benefiting from lottery jackpot normalisation. Beyond this it will be affected with the closure of digital Keno and the Victorian lottery license renewal, which will mean higher depreciation and interest, the broker adds.

Outperform rating and $6 target.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $0.5
If TLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.89, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TLC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett expects weaker jackpot activity in the second half of FY26 to weigh on earnings for Australia's Lottery sector. Prize pools fell -6%, driven by a -10% decline in jackpot pools and weaker app downloads, the analyst explains.

The broker forecasts lottery revenue declines for both Lottery Corp and Jumbo Interactive, although digital penetration is expected to continue rising steadily. Forecast earnings are downgraded by Ord Minnett for both companies.

Higher reseller fees from Jumbo to Lottery Corp from 2030 are expected to support a higher valuation for the latter, the broker suggests.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating on its preferred exposure Lottery Corp with a $6.60 target, up from $6.50.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $1.1
If TLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.89, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie assesses the latest mobile pricing, noting that over the past six months pricing has moved higher, which supports near-term ARPU (average revenue per unit) without materially compromising subscription growth.

Most of the mobile virtual network operators, those which do not own infrastructure, have raised prices over the past 12 months and operate on either the Telstra or Optus networks.

For Telstra Group, the broker points out the churn risk remains elevated, particularly post its outage in July.

Since the Optus outage in September 2025, the company's discounting across Belong & branded prepaid was a departure from historical trends and this has since normalised, reverting to traditional premium position and offering the least discount over the period.

Neutral rating and $5.57 target.

Target price is $5.57 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: $0.59
If TLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.35, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TPG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses the latest mobile pricing, noting that over the past six months pricing has moved higher, which supports near-term ARPU (average revenue per unit) without materially compromising subscription growth.

Most of the mobile virtual network operators (MVNO), those which do not own infrastructure, have raised prices over the past 12 months and operate on either the Telstra or Optus networks.

For TPG Telecom, new wins from MVNOs and above-peer discounting have supported subscriber growth, the broker asserts, with further ARPU upside expected for a company which is expected to more than double its existing MVNO subscriber base.

Outperform rating and $4.10 target.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.53
If TPG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WTC as Buy (1) -

Citi believes WiseTech Global faces greater near-term revenue uncertainty as the company prioritises customer adoption of its new commercial model.

AI feature releases and migration of DSV, one of CargoWise's largest enterprise customers, are expected to create additional headwinds.

The broker lowers its FY26-FY28 profit forecasts by -2%-17%, expecting revenue growth to slow and the shares to remain range-bound ahead of the FY26 result.

Despite these challenges, Citi expects earnings (EBITDA) margins to recover above 50% in FY27 as cost reductions offset weaker revenue. A positive long-term view on WiseTech's AI opportunity is also maintained.

Citi retains a Buy rating and cuts the target price by -21% to $52.00.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $34.63 Difference: $17.37
If WTC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $70.27, suggesting upside of 107.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WTC as Buy (1) -

Having reviewed its assumptions yet again, following additional insights provided by WiseTech Global about customer DSV, Citi analysts have made amendments to previous modeling.

The result is an increase in the price target, to $55.05 from $52. The broker's Buy rating remains unchanged.

The largest change is an 9% upgrade to FY28 net profit forecast as a lower impact is projected from DSV migrating away from WiseTech Global's platform.

Citi retains the view current consensus forecasts for FY27 are most likely too optimistic.

Target price is $55.05 Current Price is $34.63 Difference: $20.42
If WTC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $70.27, suggesting upside of 107.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ZIP as Buy (1) -

UBS observes, despite the global uncertainty, the US consumer has been "relatively resilient" and this should support strong transaction growth for Zip Co going into the fourth quarter.

The focus in the results in August will be on FY27 when global macro conditions are expected to slow. The broker makes minimal changes to its estimated portfolio income for FY26-FY28 while the cash NTM/EBTDA profile is raised by an average of 4%/11%, amid benefits from recent facility refinancing.

Buy rating reiterated. Target is raised to $4.10 from $3.10.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.07 Difference: $1.03
If ZIP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.53, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources