Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Sep 18, 2023

This story features BIGTINCAN HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BTH

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

BTH   FSG   GSS   IPH   LKE   LLL   MGV   MND   PMT   TIE   VGL  

BTH    BIGTINCAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $0.31

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BTH)) as Buy (1) –

Bigtincan Holdings has highlighted its cost reduction strategy in its business update, targeting a further -10% reduction in operating expenditure with a focus on non customer-facing roles.

The change of control proposal initiated last December is ongoing with the company indicating multiple parties are interested and active in the data room.

The company plans to issue FY24 guidance at or before the AGM and expects growth in annual recurring revenue, targeting positive free cash flow.

Canaccord Genuity finds the multiples undemanding and awaits further guidance at  the AGM in November. Buy rating unchanged. Target is reduced to $0.80 from $1.00.

This report was published on September 15, 2023.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.49
If BTH meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 158% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.75.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.32.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FSG    FIELD SOLUTIONS HOLDINGS LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $0.04

Petra Capital rates ((FSG)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital found Field Solutions' FY23 results in line with expectations. Growth in both revenue and EBITDA occurred with 21 new network sites delivered and 127 due to be live by FY24.

Progress has been made on the delivery of RCP2 with Field Solutions expected to receive $18-22m in government receipts for FY24.

The broker also notes the proposed acquisition of Cirrus ((CNW)) by Atturra ((ATA)), which it believes highlights the value in the Field Solutions business. Buy retained. Target is $0.22.

This report was published on September 15, 2023.

Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.177
If FSG meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 412% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.50.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 43.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GSS    GENETIC SIGNATURES LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.52

Taylor Collison rates ((GSS)) as Outperform & Accumulate (2) –

Genetic Signatures has submitted an application for US FDA clearance for marketing its EasyScreen gastrointestinal parasite detection kit.

Taylor Collison likes the fact the molecular testing for gastrointestinal pathogens is already reimbursed in the US and the kit replaces low-value, microscope-based testing.

The broker will review pricing assumptions post the FDA clearance and highlights the risk that additional funds may be required in FY24 or FY25.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is $2.19.

This report was published on September 12, 2023.

Target price is $2.19 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $1.675
If GSS meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 325% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.28.

Forecast for FY25:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.71.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPH    IPH LIMITED

Legal – Overnight Price: $7.52

Petra Capital rates ((IPH)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital analyses the patent filing numbers for the Australian market based on data sourced from IP Australia, noting in the case of IPH, this is really only relevant for its Australian operations.

Assessing the August highlights the broker finds no reason to change forecasts, noting the company's filings improved during the month following a weak July.

Notwithstanding the flow-through of price increases from July the broker assumes low single-digit organic growth for Australasia in its FY24 EBITDA forecasts. Buy rating and $10.70 target maintained.

This report was published on September 15, 2023.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $7.52 Difference: $3.18
If IPH meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.49, suggesting upside of 39.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 33.70 cents and EPS of 44.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.0, implying annual growth of 53.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 47.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.9, implying annual growth of 6.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LKE    LAKE RESOURCES N.L.

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.18

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LKE)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Lake Resources continues to progress with the Kachi DLE project having recently increase the resource base by 53%. The company now plans a two-phase development and Canaccord Genuity models phase 1 commissioning in the first quarter of 2028 and phase 2 in 2031.

A return to a staged project de-risks development and execution, in the broker's view. Speculative Buy rating unchanged. Project risking is lifted to reflect increased financial challenges and the target is lowered to $0.25 from $0.95.

This report was published on September 15, 2023.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.07
If LKE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LLL    LEO LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.51

Petra Capital rates ((LLL)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital notes the "new risks" from government regulation in Mali, in particular the introduction of a mining code, with Leo Lithium being disallowed shipments of DSO and now having to pay duties from which the Goulamina project was supposedly exempt while under construction.

The company may consider this will have a minor impact yet the broker adds a 40% risk rating to the project valuation and highlights the crucial partnership with Ganfeng, as it underpins the funding structure of Goulamina. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $0.94 from $1.52.

This report was published on September 13, 2023.

Target price is $0.94 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.435
If LLL meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 36.07.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.94.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGV    MUSGRAVE MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.34

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MGV)) as Downgrade to Hold from Speculative Buy (3) –

Ramelius Resources ((RMS)) is now approaching the compulsory acquisition threshold of 90%, now holding 88.6% of Musgrave Minerals. Canaccord Genuity envisages little risk to compulsory acquisition being achieved over coming days.

Therefore any further competing bids are ruled out and the target is lowered to $0.36 from $0.50, being the current implied price based on the acquisition terms. Rating is downgraded to Hold from Speculative Buy.

This report was published on September 15, 2023.

Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.025
If MGV meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 33.50.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MND    MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $14.25

Jarden rates ((MND)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (2) –

Jarden is becoming more bullish on Monadelphous Group amid the announcement of $260m in new contracts gained over the past two weeks.

The engineering and construction ramp-up is beginning to translate to the order book and the broker is now more confident in both the amount of construction contracts in the pipeline and the company's ability to win tenders.

Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral and the target lifted to $14.45 from $12.40. Monadelphous has won $610m in new contracts over the first three months of the first half.

This report was published on September 14, 2023.

Target price is $14.45 Current Price is $14.25 Difference: $0.2
If MND meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.36, suggesting upside of 0.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 58.40 cents and EPS of 66.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.9, implying annual growth of 23.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 68.80 cents and EPS of 78.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.8, implying annual growth of 31.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PMT    PATRIOT BATTERY METALS INC

Mining – Overnight Price: $1.35

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PMT)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity has visited the Corvette site in Quebec, the flagship project for Patriot Battery Metals. The broker assesses there is substantial potential to define additional lithium resources at CV5 as well as numerous pegmatite clusters that remain still to be drilled or have been barely tested.

Work has recommenced following the forest fires in the region, which had no direct impact on property. The camp will be developed in two phases to accommodate permit requirements relating to the installation of permanent water and sewerage.

There are currently seven drilling rigs in operation with a plan to complete around 30,000 litres this year. Speculative Buy rating retained. Target is $1.95.

This report was published on September 15, 2023.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.35 Difference: $0.6
If PMT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TIE    TIETTO MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.35

Canaccord Genuity rates ((TIE)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Tietto Minerals needs to regain market confidence, Canaccord Genuity asserts. Grade control drilling has meant lower grades have been reconciled against the resource model which in turn means lower production is expected in coming months from the Abujar gold mine.

The absence of stockpiles, because of previous delays to equipment, has compounded a -29% downgrade in second half guidance.

The broker lowers expectations to a "manageable" 31,000 ounces for the September quarter. Speculative Buy rating unchanged. Target is reduced to $0.40 from $0.85.

This report was published on September 15, 2023.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.045
If TIE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.83.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.07.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VGL    VISTA GROUP INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $1.44

Jarden rates ((VGL)) as Overweight (2) –

Vista International has hosted an investor briefing in Hollywood where it showcased its digital/cloud products. The transition away from on-premises towards a full cloud offering includes "steppingstone" options for customers, which incrementally contribute revenue targets.

Jarden found the cost guidance helpful as a bridge has been provided to FY24 with greater detail on the capital expenditure profile. The broker suspects the long-term targets may prove conservative when compared to other SaaS peers. Overweight retained. Target is NZ$2.

This report was published on September 14, 2023.

Current Price is $1.44. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 45.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 720.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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