Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday July 27 to Friday July 31, 2026
Total Upgrades: 5
Total Downgrades: 12
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 65.07%; Hold 28.19%; Sell 6.73%
For the week ending Friday, 31 July 2026, FNArena registered five upgrades for individual ASX-listed companies against twelve downgrades as the seven stockbrokers monitored daily are preparing for the upcoming August results season.
After a slew of profit warnings coming through in April, May and June, early financial result releases have been positive, but the sample thus far remains small.
FNArena's Corporate Results Monitor started on Friday with three assessments, of which two (Newmont and Rio Tinto) broadly met expectations, while Ampol 'beat' but had to temper enthusiasm as its refinery is due maintenance later in the year.
https://fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/
(Scroll down for the August calendar)
It's early days and the numbers start gradually ramping up later this week when REA Group, AMP, Block and ResMed release their financial numbers.
The two sectors responsible for most rating changes are REITs and mining companies as analysts debate the prospect of further RBA rate increases and whether it is too early still to start buying rate sensitive equities.
Consensus is positioned for 12% growth in earnings per share, on average, and Mining companies are carrying the bulk of it on their shoulders.
Better priced commodities have created a much more favourable environment for many, but there's always the threat of disappointment lurking from weather events, more capex requirement and/or higher costs.
Expectations are for more positive surprises through dividends and capital management. Early indications from the three companies mentioned have confirmed the positive undercurrent is tangible and real.
Equally noteworthy: all six upgrades last week moved to Buy while only one downgrade shifted to Sell, with Coronado Global Resources the recipient.
Market updates by Australia's two refiners have been well-received and both Viva Energy and Ampol sit on top of the week's ranking for positive adjustments to target prices.
James Hardie sits third, as its pre-released quarterly numbers surprised to the upside, followed by AMP whose market update equally beat forecasts, thanks to its Chinese JV China Life Pension Company.
Outside of the top three, the numbers are small and inconsequential, but at least they're moving counter-trend, as also shown by the much larger percentages in the week's top ten for negative changes to price targets.
Small-cap biotechs and small-cap mining companies populate the negative side of the ledger, with WiseTech Global the exception. It should therefore hardly surprise negative adjustments are much larger.
This is equally the case for the week's upgrades and downgrades to forecasts, though here the gap between positives and negatives is noticeably smaller.
Whereas quarterly market updates from the likes of Iluka Resources, Whitehaven Coal, Sandfire Resources, Alpha HPA and Minerals Resources have forced analysts to significantly lift their projections, the opposite occurred when Coronado, Bellevue Gold, Liontown and Boss Energy released their quarterly updates.
Regal Partners too enjoyed upgraded expectations, while forecasts for SiteMinder and Telix Pharmaceuticals took another leg south.
The Australian share market has entered August with general sentiment looking fragile, as also shown in Friday's session, though the ASX200 has outperformed US equities in July, largely on a strong performance from the local banking sector.
New sector analysis by UBS suggested the market is underestimating the returns from lending to infrastructure projects and data centres for Australian banks, which also explains the rating upgrade for Westpac.
Underneath, share market polarisation remains high with many a small cap in particular finding the going tough.
This looks like the ideal set-up for an extra volatile August results season.
Upgrade
CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP ((CNI)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/2/1
UBS points out the A-REIT 200's year-to-date return of -7% lags the ASX 200 at 4% due to ongoing inflation, higher interest rates and the post-Budget blues.
The upcoming RBA rates decision on August 11 is likely to "set the tone" for earnings season, with the broker forecasting a 25 bps hike, but the analyst sees the investment case as "compelling". The expected hike is considered a "clearing event" for the sector.
The sector is trading at an "undemanding" valuation of 14x PER and around a -8% discount to NTA, ex Goodman Group ((GMG)) and Charter Hall ((CHC)).
Centuria Capital is upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a lower target price of $2.11 from $2.34. The REIT is yielding 7% with the share price discounting no value for ResetData or Bass.
See also CNI downgrade.
CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT ((CQR)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 4/1/0
UBS points out the A-REIT 200's year-to-date return of -7% lags the ASX 200 at 4% due to ongoing inflation, higher interest rates and the post-Budget blues.
The upcoming RBA rates decision on August 11 is likely to "set the tone" for earnings season, with the broker forecasting a 25 bps hike, but the analyst sees the investment case as "compelling". The expected hike is considered a "clearing event" for the sector.
The sector is trading at an "undemanding" valuation of 14x PER and around a -8% discount to NTA, ex Goodman Group ((GMG)) and Charter Hall ((CHC)).
Charter Hall Retail REIT is upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a 13% rise in the target price to $4.30 from higher EPS forecasts and lower weighted average cost of capital assumptions.
It is trading on a -20% discount to NTA and a 6.8% yield with stronger growth expected in FY27.
MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/0/0
Mineral Resources provided a firm fourth quarter as production and costs beat estimates across mining services, iron ore and lithium. Morgans points out the company's diversification underpins a more stable earnings profile compared with single-commodity peers.
Completion of the 30% sell-down of the Wodgina and Mount Marion interest in the first half of FY27 is expected to materially strengthen the balance sheet. The broker also believes further upside exists at Onslow.
The company has transitioned to a reliable operating platform and Morgans upgrades to Buy from Accumulate with the target unchanged at $68.
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION ((WBC)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 1/1/3
UBS stresses institutional banking with a total addressable market of $308m is an overlooked part of the Australian banking market.
Over the last three years, cash profits from this segment have expanded at a CAGR of 11% versus retail at around 6% and business banking at 9%-plus.
The analyst's channel checks indicate there are several structural earnings levers, AI, infrastructure, defence and energy transition to name a few, which proffer potential upside of around $85bn in lending. This is not fully priced in by the market.
The institutional market is expected to boost EPS growth, and the broker upgrades EPS forecast by around 1%-2.5% for the majors over the next two years, with circa 7% as the upside case.
Westpac which is upgraded to Buy from Neutral, and National Australia Bank ((NAB)) and ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) are in the optimal positions to capitalise on the opportunity.
Target price for Westpac is raised to $45 from $38.80. EPS forecasts are upgraded by 0.4% for FY26, 1% for FY27 and 2.5% for FY28.
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