DRONESHIELD LIMITED (DRO)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial

29/07/2026

1

Buy

$2.50

37.74%

In its first half trading update, DroneShield has guided to revenue of $125.8m, up 74%, while 2026 revenue is expected to be in the range of $250m-$270m, up 15%-25%.

The update underwhelmed Bell Potter, given the annual revenue guidance was -17%-23% below consensus expectations.

Orders secured in the remainder of 2026 are more likely to form part of committed revenue in 2027 and beyond, although the broker points out there remains upside to guidance from orders arising outside the sales pipeline.

The company is experiencing increased competition in the US. Bell Potter believes it can still grow share, given its verifiable product superiority. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.50 from $4.80.

FORECAST
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -1.40 cents.
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.90 cents.

04/08/2026

1

Speculative Buy

$2.80

54.27%

Canaccord Genuity maintains a Speculative Buy rating for DroneShield with its target price lowered to $2.80 from $3.75 following a trading update highlighting lower-than-expected full-year revenue guidance and softer near-term margins.

First-half FY26 revenue of $126m and new full-year FY26 revenue guidance of $250m to $270m missed the broker's and market consensus expectations.

While the company has secured $206m in FY26 committed revenue, first-half gross margins compressed to 60% due to an increased weighting of lower-margin third-party hardware.

The analyst notes the non-linear growth trajectory typical of defence procurement timelines, taking a conservative approach by lowering FY26 through FY28 EBITDA forecasts by 60%.

Despite earnings downgrades, the broker retains medium-term investment conviction supported by new software releases (RfAI-3), a new $23m European vehicle-mounted contract, and structural demand backed by rising allied defence budgets.