INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED (IPL)
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IPL - INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Agriculture
Year End: September
GICS Industry Group : Materials
Debt/EBITDA: 2.82
Index: ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Incitec Pivot is an Australian manufacturer of fertilisers and explosives chemicals. It is the largest supplier of fertilisers in Australia and the largest supplier of explosives in the US and Canada. The company was listed in 2003.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$2.97

23 Dec
2024

0.030

OPEN

$2.95

1.02%

HIGH

$2.97

5,827,817

LOW

$2.92

TARGET
$3.208 8.0% upside
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
AAC . AMN . APC . CBO . CXM . D2O . ELD . GNC . HFR . LGL . MWY . NUF . RIC . SGLLV . SHV . TFL . WLD .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
IPL: 1
Title FY23
Actual		 FY24
Actual		 FY25
Forecast		 FY26
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx - 22.5 18.5 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 36.3 11.9 xxx
EPS Growth xxx N/A N/A xxx
DPS Growth xxx 100.0% - 67.4% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 16.1 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 4.0% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx N/A 64.2% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 11.39%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 12.24

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 04/12 - ex-div 5c (franking 0%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2024 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201920202021202220232024
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-22.5
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx36.3
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx5,278.5 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx256.1
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx290.2 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-9.05 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201920202021202220232024
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-8.48 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-6.34 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-5.04 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-8.48 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4.58 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-466.7 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201920202021202220232024
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx68 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,887 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,955 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,733 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,069 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.21

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201920202021202220232024
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx378.7 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7.17 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4,253 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx677 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx30 M
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx421 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.3

No. Of Recommendations

6
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Morgans

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Citi

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Morgan Stanley

12/11/2024

3

Equal-weight

$2.90

-2.36%

Incitec Pivot reported a "solid" FY24 result, with EBIT coming in 6% above Morgan Stanley's forecast and 12% above consensus.

Underlying net profit was also above the broker's and consensus expectations, including $22m in below-the-line transformation costs.

Operating cash flow was below estimates due to a decline in working capital of $332m. The transformation business program added $65m in EBIT, with $31m in below-the-line costs.

Management remains committed to the separation of fertilisers, the broker notes, with a sale process for the distribution business starting in early 2025.

No guidance was provided for transformation benefits, and re-contracting is expected to assist Dyno Nobel, including improved margins from technology.

Industry view: In-Line. Target price: $2.90. The broker believes the market is looking for full separation of fertilisers and ongoing transformation benefits.

FORECAST
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 19.00 cents.
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 22.00 cents.

Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

2

xxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

2

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Goldman Sachs

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Jarden

23/09/2024

2

Overweight

$3.15

6.06%

Incitec Pivot announced a global explosives plan aiming for EBIT to reach $300m by FY28 which suggests to Jarden its FY28 EBIT forecast would increase by around $254m.

At the November FY24 results, the broker expects further updates on fertilisers sale with the distribution business ready to be sold and Phosphate Hill plant closed before it requires more capex investment.

Management is also aiming for $60m in EBIT from expanding Latam and Emea which Jarden believes will be challenging without acquisitions.

The analyst lowers net profit forecasts by -6% for FY24 and -2% in FY25.

No change to Overweight rating with a $3.15 target price.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.40 cents and EPS of 20.50 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

IPL STOCK CHART

FNArena News on IPL

1
FNArena Corporate Results Monitor – 15-11-2024

Nov 15 2024 - Australia
2
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Nov 14, 2024

Nov 14 2024 - Daily Market Reports
3
Uncertainty Awaits Incitec’s Pivot

Nov 13 2024 - Australia
4
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Oct 16, 2024

Oct 16 2024 - Daily Market Reports
5
ESG Focus: The Little Big Things – 02-10-2024

Oct 02 2024 - ESG Focus

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