KOGAN.COM LIMITED (KGN)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

26/08/2026

3

Hold

$3.90

6.56%

Bell Potter maintains its Hold recommendation for Kogan.com with its target price decreased to $3.90 from $4.20 following an FY26 result featuring adjusted EBITDA of $41.8m, which beat the broker's estimate but fell short against consensus.

Operational performance was supported by gross sales of $1042.3m up 12% YoY and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.2%, alongside the New Zealand-based Mighty Ape division returning to profitability in 4Q26 following an operational reset.

FY27-FY29 NPAT forecasts are upgraded by 3%-5% to reflect lower depreciation and amortisation charges despite moderated revenue growth expectations of 6% in July 2026.

The analyst highlights that while platform-based sales and Kogan FIRST loyalty program growth remain positive, medium-term EBITDA margins are expected to hover near the bottom end of the 8% to 12% target range amid heightened e-commerce competition and marketing investment sensitivities.

FORECAST
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 19.70 cents and EPS of 20.60 cents.
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 21.30 cents and EPS of 22.40 cents.

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25/08/2026

4

Underweight

$4.25

16.12%

Jarden transfers coverage of Kogan.com with an Underweight rating and a target price of $4.25.

FY26 results included revenue of $510.7m, adjusted EBITDA of $41.8m, and NPAT of $19.4m, marking a 30% year-on-year increase at the bottom line despite a minor consensus miss.

The July trading update revealed group revenue of $43.8m, up 6% year-on-year, coming in below consensus growth expectations as tougher comparatives take effect.

Mighty Ape continues to act as a drag with a revenue decline of 30% year-on-year, though it moved to a slight profit in the fourth quarter.

The analyst highlights that management maintains its medium-term EBITDA margin aspiration towards 12%, supported by an ongoing share buyback program.