Australia | Jul 10 2006
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
The unemployment rate in Australia reached a decade low of a seasonally adjusted 4.9% in May, but job advertisement trends for June signal it is unlikely to remain this low, ANZ Bank believes.
According to the bank, trend data for job ads continue to provide the most reliable guide to the underlying demand for labour. The latest update suggests the demand for labour throughout Australia in June was muted. This would indicate the generally softer story that has been evident in the first half of 2006 remains intact.
The number of job advertisements in major metropolitan newspapers in Australia declined by 3.2% in June to an average of 20,167 per week. This follows a 7.7% rise in May. Newspaper advertisements are now 2.7% lower than in June 2005, according to the latest trend update by ANZ Bank.
Interestingly, the bank reports the decline in newspaper job advertisements in June was caused by falls in all states. Job advertising dropped by 6.5% in Queensland; by 4.4% in Tasmania; by 3.8% in Western Australia; by 3.6% in the ACT; by 2.8% in New South Wales; by 1.8% in South Australia; by 1.5% in Victoria; and by 0.2% in the Northern Territory.
Abstracting from month-to-month volatility in the data, trend job advertisements were broadly unchanged in June, but were 3.7% lower than a year ago.
The number of job advertisements on the internet, however, was 4.1% higher in June to average 162,878 per week. Internet job ads fell 2.6% in May. Looking at the trend rate of growth in internet job advertisements, ANZ points out the trend continues to slow, showing an increase of only 0.6% in the month.
The total number of job advertisements increased by 3.2% in June to average 183,044 per week. In line with the trend for internet job ads, the trend rate of growth of total job advertisements also continued to slow to a monthly increase of only 0.6%.
ANZ Head of Australian Economics, Tony Pearson points out trend data shows there are now "tentative signs of a pick up in newspapers". However, Pearson believes the slowing in trend growth in job advertisements through the first half of 2006 suggests
employment growth throughout Australia will ease over the next three months.