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This story features PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
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The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
U308 prices remain resilient, but negative factor momentum, operational setbacks, funding constraints and persistent short selling are weighing heavily on investor sentiment for equities.
- Paladin Energy shares slide on weaker uranium production
- Deep Yellow delays Tumas development due to equity price weakness
- Uranium prices remain resilient while sector shares dive by -17% over 21-days
By Danielle Ecuyer
Langer Heinrich, you’ve done it again!
On the news front, it was another challenging week for U308 investors, with Paladin Energy ((PDN)) disappointing with its 1Q27 trading update, sending the shares down -9.34%.
Trading just over $7, the stock is down -52%-plus from its 52-week high while eyeing its 52-week low of $6.82.
Before daggers start flying towards management at the helm of the company, the U308 sector has overall been under considerable selling pressure as momentum over September gyrated out of certain sectors and into others.
Uranium found itself on the sell side, turning it into the second-worst factor performer between September 11 and October 9, down -17.2%, ranking only above fertiliser & crop inputs, down -20%.
Cybersecurity was the winning factor on the other side of market momentum, up 28%.
Fundamentally, Paladin’s quarterly update was weaker than expected, with Langer Heinrich impacted by shallower J-pit material which contained more fine-grained ore, Macquarie explained, leading to lower recoveries and more necessary blending with low-grade stockpiles, which impacted the overall feed grade.
Grades are anticipated to rise above 500ppm in 2H27, with the broker forecasting 570ppm as well as higher recoveries as mining advances.
Management retained FY27 production guidance at 5.1Mlb–5.6Mlb despite the 1Q production miss. A one-week shutdown in late November was also highlighted, with work limited to kiln replacement.
Macquarie noted most of the processing plant would continue to operate.
An update on Patterson Lake South is flagged for March 2027 with updated capex. The final investment decision is due for 1H2028, with Paladin still expecting first production in 2031.
Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and, after trimming EPS forecasts on higher operating costs and higher equity dilution assumptions, the target price is downgraded by -6.1% to $13.
Patterson Lake South remains the “major prize” and now represents 60% of Macquarie’s the sum-of-the-parts valuation.
FNArena’s daily monitored brokers lowered their target prices following yet another disappointing trading update, with the consensus target price falling -7.4% to $11.807 — leaving a gap of 61% with the current share price of $7.21.
There are seven Buy-equivalent ratings. Non-daily monitored broker Shaw and Partners, a true believer in the uranium supercycle thesis, has a standout target price of $19.10.
Morgans is the latest to update on Deep Yellow’s ((DYL)) decision to withdraw its targeted 4Q2026 final investment decision for Tumas, with management pointing to weakness in equity markets and a “constrained” funding backdrop for U308 developers.
The decision is considered hardly surprising given the weakness in the share price. The stock is approaching its 52-week low of 75.5c and has fallen almost -75% from its 52-week high.
Morgans maintains Deep Yellow offers leveraged exposure to a strengthening U308 market. The stock is Speculative Buy rated with a $1.50 target price.
Macquarie made a salient point that there is a “serious disconnect” between U308 buyers needing new supply and the cooperation of equity markets to facilitate the required growth in supply in regard to the Deep Yellow market update.
The adverse sentiment for U308 equities implies an equity capital raising to fund the final investment decision would be too dilutive. Cash on hand currently stands at around $160m. The shares remain Outperform rated with a $1.95 target.
Post the deferral of the final investment decision, the FNArena consensus price target has slipped to $1.925 from $2.05, down some -6%, underpinned by four Buy-equivalent ratings.
In terms of the outlook for the U308 price, Ord Minnett has lifted its long-term price forecast to US$85/lb from US$80/lb as higher capex costs are weighing on producers’ margins. Notably, the Middle East war has impacted African mines the most.
Ord Minnett has retained its FY28 U308 price forecast at US$110/lb but has lengthened the shoulder period of higher prices out to 2032 due to the expected time frame for major new mines in the Athabasca Basin to start.
Inside U308 markets
Industry consultant TradeTech’s U308 spot price rose US$0.30/lb last week to US$90/lb, with the weekly spot price up 16.4% in the last year and 9.8% thus far in 2026.
Activity in the spot market was characterised as “intermittent”, with periods of increased buying and selling over the last week.
Two transactions were conducted in the spot uranium market. One buyer on Tuesday emerged for an off-market purchase for delivery in early January at a price over US$90/lb.
The consultants point out that several other transactions were also concluded midweek involving delivery of U308 outside of the 90-day spot delivery window.
On Thursday, one party agreed to acquire 100klbs of U308 at US$90/lb for delivery at Cameco’s Port Hope facility in Canada.
This week, the Nuclear Energy Institute’s International Uranium Fuel Seminar will be hosted in Houston, Texas.
TradeTech also noted long-term uranium contracts are being concluded at prices consistent with a base price of US$97/lb U308.
Most agreements combine fixed prices with escalation provisions and market-linked pricing at delivery, subject to agreed floors and ceilings.
Floor prices are currently in the high US$70/lb range, while ceilings vary between US$140/lb and US$160/lb, depending on counterparties and contract terms.
The TradeTech Mid-term price indicator stands at US$91/lb and the Long-term price indicator at US$97/lb.
ASX shorts
Short interests showed little sign of wanting to relinquish their positions, with the ASIC data for October 13 showing Lotus Resources as the third most shorted stock on the ASX at 16.21%, up 1.26%.
Boss Energy is in fourth position at 14.68%, up 1.38%, and Paladin in ninth position at 11.88%.
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 16/10/2026 | 0.0500 |  – 9.62% | $0.16 | $0.05 | |||
| AEE | 16/10/2026 | 0.0700 | – 9.41% | $0.25 | $0.07 | |||
| AEU | 16/10/2026 | 0.3700 |  5.71% | $0.75 | $0.22 | $0.800 | 116.2% | |
| AGE | 16/10/2026 | 0.0300 | – 5.71% | $0.06 | $0.02 | $0.080 | 166.7% | |
| AKN | 16/10/2026 | 0.0100 | -12.50% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 16/10/2026 | 0.0400 | – 7.50% | $0.12 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 16/10/2026 | 0.8200 | 30.43% | $0.95 | $0.37 | |||
| BMN | 16/10/2026 | 3.1600 | 0.00% | $5.25 | $2.77 | $4.433 | 40.3% | |
| BOE | 16/10/2026 | 1.3000 | – 2.18% | $2.15 | $1.00 | 15.4 | $1.479 | 13.7% |
| BSN | 16/10/2026 | 0.0200 | -14.81% | $0.07 | $0.02 | |||
| C29 | 16/10/2026 | 0.0250 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 16/10/2026 | 0.2000 | -10.87% | $0.43 | $0.11 | 4.0 | $0.340 | 70.0% |
| CXU | 16/10/2026 | 0.0600 | – 6.45% | $0.17 | $0.02 | |||
| DEV | 16/10/2026 | 0.1400 | – 9.38% | $0.33 | $0.11 | $0.410 | 192.9% | |
| DYL | 16/10/2026 | 0.7700 | -12.77% | $2.97 | $0.76 | -56.4 | $1.925 | 150.0% |
| EF2 | 16/10/2026 | 12.0100 | -15.21% | $22.50 | $11.39 | |||
| EL8 | 16/10/2026 | 0.2000 | 2.33% | $0.49 | $0.19 | |||
| HAR | 16/10/2026 | 0.0900 | 38.18% | $0.23 | $0.05 | |||
| I88 | 16/10/2026 | 0.1000 | – 4.76% | $0.62 | $0.10 | |||
| KOB | 16/10/2026 | 0.0300 | -21.21% | $0.08 | $0.02 | |||
| LAM | 16/10/2026 | 0.4500 | -10.00% | $0.93 | $0.42 | |||
| LOT | 16/10/2026 | 0.1700 | – 7.69% | $3.20 | $0.16 | $0.250 | 47.1% | |
| MEU | 16/10/2026 | 0.0800 | – 6.17% | $0.19 | $0.05 | |||
| NHU | 16/10/2026 | 0.0700 | – 4.29% | $0.20 | $0.06 | |||
| NXG | 16/10/2026 | 12.1300 | – 1.35% | $20.47 | $11.34 | -110.5 | $17.050 | 40.6% |
| ORP | 16/10/2026 | 0.0900 | – 5.15% | $0.16 | $0.04 | |||
| PDN | 16/10/2026 | 7.2100 | -13.27% | $15.10 | $6.82 | 46.4 | $11.807 | 63.8% |
| PEN | 16/10/2026 | 0.2000 | – 2.50% | $1.08 | $0.16 | |||
| POW | 16/10/2026 | 0.1800 | 17.50% | $0.27 | $0.18 | |||
| SLX | 16/10/2026 | 3.6300 | – 8.17% | $10.85 | $3.45 | |||
| WCN | 16/10/2026 | 0.0300 | -10.34% | $0.03 | $0.01 |
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