Australia | Jan 08 2007
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
The economics department of ANZ bank reports the total number of jobs advertised in Australia’s major metropolitan newspapers and on the internet jumped by 12.1% in December to a weekly average of 210,401 per week.
Abstracting from month-to-month volatility in the data, trend data show that the decline in newspaper job advertisements in major metropolitan newspapers has turned a corner, says ANZ. The economists note the number of job advertisements has risen over the past three consecutive months by 1% in total.
Parallel to this development, ANZ believes the internet channel for job advertisements may be showing signs of maturation, which should see lower growth figures from here on.
December’s recovery in total job ad figures more than reverses the 3.8% fall in total advertisements recorded in November, the economists point out. On an annual basis the total number of job advertisements was 28.1% higher than 12 months ago in December.
ANZ reports the number of job advertisements in major metropolitan newspapers increased by 4.4% in the closing month of calendar 2006 to an average of 20,594 per week. This follows a 2.1% decline in November. Newspaper advertisements are now 0.2% higher than in December 2005.
ANZ says the rise in newspaper job advertisements in December was driven by increases in New South Wales (9.6%); South Australia (6.0%); Victoria (5.9%); Queensland (4.3%); and Western Australia (2.1%). There were significant falls in both the ACT (-16.4%) and the Northern Territory (-11.0%), with a small decline also recorded in Tasmania (-2.1%).
Even though ANZ argues it would appear job advertisements in newspapers have turned a corner and are heading north again, the economists also point out that newspaper job advertisements in December 2006 remain 9.9% lower than at the most recent peak in November 2004.
The number of job advertisements on the internet, however, grew strongly by 12.9% in December to average 189,807 per week. In trend terms, internet job advertisements are still growing solidly, although the annual rate of growth has been slowing since January 2005, the bank notes. The economists speculate this may be a sign that this particular channel for advertising jobs is maturing after several years of exceptionally strong growth.
Although overall employment growth is anticipated to remain solid, ANZ expects it to slow gently in 2007 as a consequence of the cooling in domestic demand through 2006. Recent interest rate rises may also continue to have an impact, although the labour market will nonetheless continue to remain tight, says ANZ.
The bank notes that for some of the newspapers surveyed, the ANZ Job Advertisements series counts the number of advertisement ‘bookings’. Each ‘booking’ may contain multiple advertisements. In addition, the ANZ series counts classified advertisements only, and does not include display advertisements. For these reasons, it would be incorrect to draw any inference or correlation from the ANZ series regarding advertising volumes or revenues from employment advertising in the newspapers surveyed. ANZ emphasises its job ads surveys are not intended to, and should not, be used to assess the financial performance of any of the newspapers included in it.