article 3 months old

Merrills Sees Short Term Trading Opportunity In Zinifex

Australia | Feb 13 2007

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By Chris Shaw

It still rates the stock as a Sell but Merrill Lynch sees a short-term opportunity in Zinifex (ZFX) as it suggests the recent weakness in zinc prices has been overdone and there is potential for a short-term recovery in the price of the metal.

The broker’s view is the recent surge in zinc exports from China was a move from producers to beat tax changes that came into effect from mid-December and now reduce the attractiveness of exporting the metal. As a result the broker expects upcoming export figures for January, which are due on February 24th, will show a reversal of last month’s trend, so setting the stage for the metal to recover its recent losses.

Also expected to provide a boost is a likely move towards zinc price parity between the LME and Shanghai, the broker expecting LME prices to strengthen in coming months given the likelihood of tight supply of the metal through to the end of June.

That should be enough to generate a recovery in Zinifex shares short-term, the bad news being the broker still views the company as overpriced at current levels as it estimates the market is pricing in six more years of current spot prices for zinc, or four years assuming the smelter sale goes ahead.

This is unrealistic in its view, so it expects the share price to trend down in the second half of the year as zinc prices weaken. It sees little impact on the stock from recent operational issues.

Zinifex shares as at 2.30pm were down 12c at $15.78, which compares to a January high of more than $18.00.

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