In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 04-09-26

Weekly Reports | 11:00 AM

A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

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29METALS LIMITED ((29M)) Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden adjusts its rating for 29Metals to Overweight from Underweight with its target price increased to $0.45 from $0.30 following a half-year result featuring underlying EBITDA of $35m.

The earnings result slightly missed expectations; however, operating cash flow of $61m outperformed, although it was fully consumed by capital expenditure and corporate costs to result in a $21m free cash flow deficit.

Commentary views 2027 as a stronger period for the business as access is regained to high-grade material at Xantho Extended and capital expenditure reduces at the Golden Grove operation.

The broker forecasts free cash flow of $140m in 2027, generating net cash flow of $106m following debt repayments of $34m, despite anticipating another challenging half in 2H 2026.

The rating upgrade and higher valuation incorporate stronger base metal forecasts alongside the better-than-expected operating cash flow result.

AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED ((AIZ)) Upgrade to Underweight from Sell by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden upgrades to an Underweight rating for Air New Zealand with its target price increased to NZ$0.40 from NZ$0.39 following an FY26 result featuring a net profit before tax loss of -NZ$336m.

The reported loss outperformed both the analyst's forecast of a -NZ$375m loss and the company's guidance range of a -NZ$340m to -NZ$390m loss.

The business was impacted by elevated second-half fuel prices, ongoing engine issues, and elevated aircraft maintenance costs throughout the period.

Normalising for these factors, the broker estimates underlying profitability stood at approximately NZ$80m for FY26.

The analyst views the airline as likely remaining a difficult investment proposition for some time due to poor visibility.

GREATLAND RESOURCES LIMITED ((GGP)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden upgrades to a Neutral rating for Greatland Resources with a $11.00 target price following an in-line FY26 result.

The business delivered underlying EBITDA of $1.33b and NPAT of $843m, tracking closely to both broker and consensus estimates.

Jarden highlights that management retained existing FY27 guidance, entering the new financial year with strong operational momentum.

The broker notes the current share price implies a long-term gold price of approximately US$3,950 per ounce, which sits significantly above their assumption of US$3,300 per ounce.

A potential divestment of an interest in the O'Callaghans tungsten project is identified as a possible positive catalyst.

EBITDA forecasts are revised downwards by -1% to account for higher corporate costs.

Order	Company	New Rating	Old Rating	Broker
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1	29METALS LIMITED	Buy	Sell	Jarden
2	AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED	Sell	Sell	Jarden
3	GREATLAND RESOURCES LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Jarden
4	INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP	Buy	Sell	Moelis
5	LIBERTY FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Jarden
6	PEXA GROUP LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Jarden
7	WAYPOINT REIT LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Jarden
8	WESFARMERS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Jarden
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9	CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Canaccord Genuity
10	EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Jarden
11	ECHOIQ LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Shaw and Partners
12	EMERALD RESOURCES NL	Neutral	Buy	Canaccord Genuity
13	EQT HOLDINGS LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Canaccord Genuity
14	FLEETPARTNERS GROUP LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Canaccord Genuity
15	FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Canaccord Genuity
16	HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Jarden
17	METALS X LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Canaccord Genuity
18	NIDO EDUCATION LIMITED	Buy	Buy	Canaccord Genuity
19	STEADFAST GROUP LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Jarden

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