Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
This story features PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
As the world decided to abandon the popular AI trade, ASX-listed uranium stocks got dragged down too. Elevated short positions can potentially trigger a short-covering rally when momentum turns.
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Uranium stocks caught up in AI-sell off
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Previewing Boss Energy's quarterly
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Bannerman announces Etango Final Investment Decision
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Nuclear Energy Institute's Seminar takes gloss off activity
By Danielle Ecuyer
Uranium stocks caught up in AI-sell off
Market momentum turned against the global AI trade, dragging down share prices of ASX-listed uranium companies, along with neoclouds, contractors, data centres and copper exposures.
As also highlighted by market commentators such as Ed Yardeni, copper (and gold) were the Materials sector’s worst-performing segments in US markets last week, respectively losing -8.2% and -6.3%, as the previously unstoppable AI trade hit a wave of selling orders.
The table near the bottom of today’s update showing weekly price action for ASX-listed uranium exposures contains very few exceptions to the negative trend for the sector last week.
FNArena’s U308 weekly update last week pointed out shares in Paladin Energy ((PDN)) and other Australian U3O8 stocks are trading near 52-week lows. (https://fnarena.com/2026/10/20/uranium-week-stocks-tickle-52-week-lows/)
Some weakness can be blamed on quarterly performance updates not meeting expectations, but questions are being asked whether sellers might be throwing out babies with the bathwater.
Shares in Paladin, by way of example, are trading some -65% below the FNArena consensus target price of $11.807.
Two daily monitored brokers offered updates on Paladin post its 1Q27 trading update. UBS noted, despite the soft quarter and a miss on expectations, management reiterated guidance for 5.1m–5.6mlbs at a cost of US$44/lb–US$49/lb. Both grades and recoveries are expected to improve.
Morgan Stanley continues to see strong growth potential through Patterson Lake South in Canada, with first production expected in 2031, which would turn Paladin into a sizeable U3O8 operator.
Both brokers retained Buy-equivalent ratings with respective target prices of $11.80 and $9.95.
According to the latest insights on short positions provided by ASIC as at October 20, shorts in Paladin shares rose 2.25% to 14.13% and the stock has become the sixth most shorted on the ASX.
There are now four U3O8 stocks in the top 20 ASX shorts, with Lotus Resources ((LOT)) in second position at 15.77%, Boss Energy ((BOE)) in third position at 15.09%, and Deep Yellow ((DYL)) in fifteenth position at 10.58%, up 1.04% on the prior week.
Previewing Boss Energy’s quarterly
Boss Energy ((BOE)) is scheduled to release its Q1 market update on Wednesday, 28th October this week.
RBC Capital expects Boss Energy’s September quarter Honeymoon production to exceed consensus by 11% at 343klb, with C1 costs forecast at $47.5/lb, -16% below consensus.
Lower grades and increased flow rates are expected to lift unit costs in subsequent quarters.
The key focus is progress on the first wide-spaced wellfield, EKT1, and the water treatment plant expansion.
RBC comments Boss remains in a three-year transition, with valuation dependent on lifting Honeymoon production, delivering the expansion on schedule and advancing Jason’s and Gould’s Dam as future feed sources.
Alta Mesa production is forecast to fall well short of consensus.
Some FY28 sales are brought forward into FY27 to reflect shipment timing, while forecast FY27 C1 costs rise to $55.4/lb.
RBC Capital rates the stock Sector Perform alongside a $1.15 target.
Bannerman announces Etango Final Investment Decision
Bannerman Energy ((BMN)) announced a positive Final Investment Decision for its Etango uranium project in Namibia, held 55% by Bannerman and 45% by CNNC Overseas, paving the way for full-scale construction.
The Etango-8 project is forecast to produce an average of 3.5mlbs U3O8 annually, with commissioning and first production targeted for 2028. Pre-production capex is estimated at -US$353m, including -US$64m already incurred, with remaining construction expenditure fully funded by existing joint venture cash of US$295m.
The company stated its share of working capital requirements is covered by its $175m cash balance.
Construction is fully funded without debt, with a market-based offtake framework in place and potential for future production expansion. The company has appointed Danie van Aswegen as CEO of its Namibian mining operations.
FNArena’s consensus price target is $4.433, some 39% above the current share price, underpinned by two Buy-equivalent ratings and one Hold rating.
Nuclear Energy Institute’s Seminar takes gloss off activity
The mood in the physical markets was not as downcast as it has been for stocks.
As outlined by industry consultants TradeTech, the weekly U3O8 spot price indicator fell to US$89.75/lb, down -US$0.25/lb, and is unchanged from October 22, but up 13.8% in the last year and up 9.6% year-to-date in 2026.
There was one transaction in the spot market last week, reflecting a becalmed backdrop as market participants attended the Nuclear Energy Institute’s International Uranium Fuel Seminar in Houston.
TradeTech reports the industry discussed ways to ensure a reliable supply of U3O8 can be secured and be available to meet increasing demand across all sectors of the nuclear supply chain.
Towards the end of the conference, one transaction was conducted on Thursday for delivery of 100klbs of U3O8 at US$89.75/lb for delivery at Cameco’s Port Hope facility in Canada.
Unconfirmed rumours suggested two other deals had been concluded for delivery at ConverDyn at US$90/lb at the end of the week.
TradeTech’s Mid-term U3O8 price indicator stands at US$91/lb and the Long-term U3O8 price indicator at US$97/lb. Several utilities are flagged to enter the mid- and long-term U3O8 market.
In the latter, prices in recently concluded transactions are showing some indications of strengthening. Base prices in long-term contracts are around US$97/lb, with the consultants highlighting reports of some sellers achieving success at prices above that level.
Floor prices are tracking in the high US$70/lb range, with ceilings covering a broad range between US$140/lb and US$160/lb U3O8, depending on the counterparty and other aspects of the contract.
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 23/10/2026 | 0.0400 |  – 4.44% | $0.16 | $0.04 | |||
| AEE | 23/10/2026 | 0.0700 | -10.53% | $0.25 | $0.07 | |||
| AEU | 23/10/2026 | 0.3300 | – 9.33% | $0.75 | $0.22 | $0.800 |  142.4% | |
| AGE | 23/10/2026 | 0.0300 | – 6.06% | $0.06 | $0.02 | $0.080 | 166.7% | |
| AKN | 23/10/2026 | 0.0100 | -15.38% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 23/10/2026 | 0.0300 | – 5.41% | $0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| BKY | 23/10/2026 | 0.7200 | -20.88% | $0.99 | $0.37 | |||
| BMN | 23/10/2026 | 3.1700 | – 5.96% | $5.25 | $2.77 | $4.433 | 39.9% | |
| BOE | 23/10/2026 | 1.2800 | – 9.40% | $2.15 | $1.00 | 15.1 | $1.479 | 15.5% |
| BSN | 23/10/2026 | 0.0200 | -13.04% | $0.07 | $0.02 | |||
| C29 | 23/10/2026 | 0.0230 | – 8.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 23/10/2026 | 0.2000 | – 2.50% | $0.43 | $0.11 | 4.0 | $0.340 | 70.0% |
| CXU | 23/10/2026 | 0.0500 | – 8.62% | $0.17 | $0.02 | |||
| DEV | 23/10/2026 | 0.1400 | – 6.25% | $0.33 | $0.11 | $0.410 | 192.9% | |
| DYL | 23/10/2026 | 0.7100 | -12.34% | $2.97 | $0.67 | -51.4 | $1.925 | 171.1% |
| EF2 | 23/10/2026 | 10.7900 | -10.36% | $22.50 | $10.55 | |||
| EL8 | 23/10/2026 | 0.1900 | – 4.88% | $0.49 | $0.19 | |||
| HAR | 23/10/2026 | 0.0700 | -18.82% | $0.23 | $0.05 | |||
| I88 | 23/10/2026 | 0.1200 | 9.09% | $0.50 | $0.10 | |||
| KOB | 23/10/2026 | 0.0230 | -11.54% | $0.07 | $0.02 | |||
| LAM | 23/10/2026 | 0.5000 | 11.11% | $0.93 | $0.42 | |||
| LOT | 23/10/2026 | 0.1900 | – 2.94% | $3.20 | $0.16 | $0.250 | 31.6% | |
| MEU | 23/10/2026 | 0.0800 | – 3.95% | $0.19 | $0.05 | |||
| NHU | 23/10/2026 | 0.0650 | 0.00% | $0.20 | $0.06 | |||
| NXG | 23/10/2026 | 11.6700 | – 6.32% | $20.47 | $11.34 | -84.5 | $16.300 | 39.7% |
| ORP | 23/10/2026 | 0.0800 | -10.11% | $0.16 | $0.04 | |||
| PDN | 23/10/2026 | 7.1800 | – 5.62% | $15.10 | $6.82 | 47.3 | $11.807 | 64.4% |
| PEN | 23/10/2026 | 0.2000 | -13.95% | $1.08 | $0.16 | |||
| POW | 23/10/2026 | 0.1900 | – 2.86% | $0.27 | $0.16 | |||
| SLX | 23/10/2026 | 3.3800 | -11.78% | $10.85 | $3.19 | |||
| WCN | 23/10/2026 | 0.0200 | -19.23% | $0.03 | $0.01 |
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BMN - BANNERMAN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE - BOSS ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DYL - DEEP YELLOW LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LOT - LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED