Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday October 5 to Friday October 9, 2026
Total Upgrades: 18
Total Downgrades: 5
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 64.36%; Hold 28.47%; Sell 7.17%
For the week ending Friday, 9 October 2026, the seven stockbrokers monitored daily by FNArena issued eighteen ratings upgrades and five downgrades for individual ASX-listed companies.
Since mid-September, the balance has shifted back in favour of ratings upgrades by analysts, ending a bruising round of downgrades that started in late May and continued during the August reporting season.
Separately, the tables below show percentage rises and falls in target prices were broadly equal last week, though reductions in average earnings forecasts were materially larger than increases.
HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT’s average target rose by 8% after Macquarie removed its -20% valuation discount previously applied for Healthscope-related risk.
Healthscope-related entities had entered receivership, increasing concern that HealthCo might need to offer incentives or accept weaker economics to secure replacement operators.
Long-term replacement leases are now largely secured, face rents preserved and cap-rate compression has broadly offset the impact of tenant incentives, the broker explained.
It was also a positive week for infrastructure-as-a-service provider Megaport, leading all industrial companies in the FNArena database with a 14% lift in consensus earnings forecast following research updates by Morgans and Citi.
The company’s acquisition of Latitude.sh in late 2025 has provided exposure to compute-as-a-service (CaaS), with the overall offering providing a differentiated exposure to neoclouds and data centres.
Partnerships with Wasabi Technologies and VAST have enhanced the offering around storage-as-a-service (SaaS): https://fnarena.com/2026/10/08/megaports-growth-metamorphosis-continues/
Most material upgrades to earnings forecasts for the week are the result from commodity price updates by UBS contained within a research piece titled “The Age of Electrons”.
The broker expects electrification and AI demand, the debasement trade and Middle East disruption to remain key commodity drivers, while significant dispersion between individual markets persists.
Remaining constructive on copper, UBS anticipates an extended period of elevated prices, although US tariffs represent a material risk.
UBS sees upside risk for uranium and expects thermal coal prices to strengthen over the next six months as winter restocking combines with low inventories, supply disruptions and higher gas prices.
Iron ore downside is seen as limited, though prices are expected to remain depressed through 2027-28.
Nickel and aluminium remain oversupplied, the analysts noted, while lithium appears broadly balanced.
Gold remains supported by diversification and debasement concerns.
Price targets for all 20 gold stocks under coverage by UBS either remained in place or were raised on higher earnings expectations.
Stocks to benefit included Bellevue Gold, Ora Banda Mining, Ramelius Resources and Perseus Mining with rises in earnings forecasts for the current financial year of 110%, 23%, 12% and 5%, respectively.
On the flipside, UBS's update materially reduced earnings forecasts for uranium exposure Bannerman Energy and copper-gold developer FireFly Metals.
Changes to lithium pricing forecasts also had a detrimental impact on earnings projections for Liontown, IGO Ltd, Mineral Resources and PLS Group.
Within lithium, UBS marked forecasts lower as shipments continue to outpace installations, though the broker felt sector equities now look oversold.
Hence, ratings for Elevra Lithium, IGO Ltd, Liontown, and PLS Group were upgraded to Buy, with PLS Group and Mineral Resources preferred sector picks.
The broker’s Buy rating on Mineral Resources largely reflects growth from Onslow Iron and mining services, alongside an expected reduction in leverage.
UBS's update caused Champion Iron’s earnings forecast to fall by circa -10%.
This week, FNArena will be publishing a report on the company. Spoiler alert: brokers see growing value for this relatively small company in the Iron Ore sector due to its exposure to high-purity iron ore as steelmakers pursue lower-emission production.
Transurban Group’s consensus target fell by -26% after the proposed -$4.5bn acquisition of Canada Pension Plan Investment Board interests in several Sydney toll-road assets.
The deal increases Transurban’s interests in Sydney Transport Group, owner of WestConnex, by 10.5% and NorthWestern Roads Group, owner of Westlink M7 and NorthConnex, by 25%.
Ord Minnett expects the new assets to deliver low double-digit earnings growth over the next four years, supported by M7 upgrades, integration with the future M12 and stronger western Sydney population growth.
Despite the earnings uplift, Ord Minnett raised its risk-free rate assumption to 5.0% from 4.5%, reducing its target to $13.90 from $14.50. Its rating was upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.
While Transurban is deploying capital into assets and markets it knows well, Morgans struggled to identify a clear cash-flow benefit for investors, particularly in a higher interest-rate environment.
The acquisition will initially be funded through committed corporate debt facilities, with Transurban intending to refinance into longer-term debt over time, which this broker notes is typically more expensive. Morgans' target was reduced to $12.03 from $12.53.
Fortescue also appears prominently in the lists for negative changes to earnings forecast and target price.
The company pre-released its September-quarter shipments of 46.8Mt, including 2.5Mt from Iron Bridge. Realised hematite pricing of US$80/dmt came in around -4% below consensus.
Bell Potter noted sales of 42.9Mt were -3.9Mt below shipments due to negotiations with China Mineral Resources Group over pricing and contract terms.
This broker cut its target to $15.80 from $17.10 and retained a Hold rating due to the weaker sales and softer price realisations.
Price realisations fell to 82% of benchmark. Bell Potter is now allowing for weaker pricing over a longer period, although it expects the dispute to be resolved by FY27-end.
While accounting software provider and payments platform Xero received a minor downgrade to its average earnings forecast, the stock was highlighted last week in FNArena’s Treasure Chest, which reports on money making ideas from stockbrokers and other experts: https://fnarena.com/2026/10/08/treasure-chest-xero-2/
Spoiler alert: a growing number of brokers is declaring the shares as heavily oversold. On Monday morning, RBC Capital upgraded to Outperform with a revised price target of $96, up from $85 previously.
"(...) we refresh our thesis and forecasts, and preview XRO's 1H27 result (due 12 November). We see upside risk to FY28 consensus estimates, which do not appear to give full credit for strong 2H27 momentum contained in XRO's FY27 guidance, though we acknowledge discretionary investment may provide downside risk to our FY28 estimates.
"We see XRO as oversold, trading at a 35x FY27E PE excluding Melio losses (61x including), offering a 2-year EPS CAGR of 38% (ex-Melio losses, 71% including). With a 60% 12m inferred TSR, we upgrade our rating to Outperform."
Elsewhere, addressing rising investor interest in stocks with exposure to copper, FNArena published an article on AIC Mines: https://fnarena.com/2026/10/06/aic-mines-second-copper-hub-excites/.
The company appears third on the list below for an around 5% lift in consensus 12-month target price.
Buy ratings represent 63.36% of all ratings in the FNArena database. Neutral/Hold ratings take up 28.47%, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 7.17%.
Upgrade
AIC MINES LIMITED ((A1M)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/0/0
Ord Minnett upgrades its rating for AIC Mines to Buy from Accumulate after incorporating the proposed $120m acquisition of privately held Materra Metals, owner of the Mt Cuthbert copper project in Queensland.
Mt Cuthbert hosts a 18.7Mt resource at 1.3% copper for 246kt contained copper and is located 150km north-west of AIC Mines' Eloise mine.
The broker views the acquisition as strategically sensible and reasonably priced at around $488/t of contained copper, about a -50% discount to AIC's implied resource valuation.
Management plans to develop Mt Cuthbert as a second standalone hub focused on sulphide mineralisation and a future concentrate plant.
Ord Minnett lifts its net asset valuation (NAV) by 11% and its target by 17% to $1.05.
This is a summary of research released by Ord Minnett last Friday.
AMPOL LIMITED ((ALD)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/1/0
Ord Minnett reviews its coverage of the energy sector. The prolonged Middle East war continues to disrupt markets and keep prices elevated. Alternative measures by major producers to sustain supply are only partially mitigating the shortages, the broker observes.
Refining markets are expected to be significantly affected by attacks on Russian refining infrastructure and subdued refinery utilisation in China as well as a heavier maintenance schedule in the US.
Ord Minnett upgrades forecasts for refining margins for the second half of 2026 and into 2027. For Ampol realised margins in 2027 are expected to stay above consensus of around US$14-US$15/bbl. Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate and the target is raised to $48 from $43.
BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/3/3
Ord Minnett reviews its coverage of the energy sector. The prolonged Middle East war continues to disrupt markets and keep prices elevated. Alternative measures by major producers to sustain supply are only partially mitigating the shortages, the broker observes.
Forecasts for Brent crude in the December quarter are lifted to US$90/bbl, and 2027 is revised up by around 10% to average US$84/bbl. LNG prices are now expected to average US$26/mmBtu in the December quarter and US$19/mmBtu in 2027.
Beach Energy is raised to Buy from Hold and the target lifted to $1.08 from $1.04.
The full story is for FNArena subscribers only. To read the full story plus enjoy a free two-week trial to our service SIGN UP HERE
If you already had your free trial, why not join as a paying subscriber? CLICK HERE