Daily Market Reports | 8:59 AM
This story features ELECTRO OPTIC SYSTEMS HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EOS
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
US markets followed other overseas markets higher on Friday ahead of big banks’ earnings reports this week. The US market is closed on Monday.
After a robust rally on Friday, ASX200 futures are pointing to a positive start.
With school holidays now in the rear-view mirror and AGM season warming up, general activity is likely to pick up again in Australia.
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 8786.00 | + 37.00 | 0.42% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 8716.60 | + 55.70 | 0.64% |
| S&P500 | 7811.54 | + 46.18 | 0.59% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 27366.17 | + 172.83 | 0.64% |
| DJIA | 51654.95 | + 423.31 | 0.83% |
| S&P500 VIX | 14.84 | – 0.57 | – 3.70% |
| US 10-year yield | 5.24 | + 0.01 | 0.25% |
| USD Index | 102.23 | + 0.14 | 0.14% |
| FTSE100 | 10552.05 | + 110.45 | 1.06% |
| DAX30 | 25087.27 | + 280.30 | 1.13% |
Good Morning,
The ASX200 rallied on Friday, rising 0.64% or 55.7 points to 8,716.60 led by Consumers Discretionary, up 2.1% and InfoTech up 2.2%.
Materials and Telecommunications were laggards.
The latter sector was impacted by the news that Grain Management, a leading global investment firm specialising in digital infrastructure, had agreed to sell its nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio to SpaceX.
The agreement utilizes scarce low-band spectrum to support next-generation satellite direct-to-device services, enabling Starlink Mobile to reach customers from both the ground and space, effectively opening up future competition for telecom incumbents in the US.
While share prices are quick to respond, it’ll take years before Starlink Mobile’s plans introduce real and tangible competition.
For more details and to stay in touch with which companies are reporting, AGMs and going ex-dividend, check out the FNArena Calendar https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
Today’s Big Picture, J.L. Bernstein extract
Tech Shakes Off the OpenAI Scare
OpenAI told investors it hit US$50 billion in annualized revenue, not the US$68 billion reported last month.
That bigger number counted partner revenue, but the gap still gave the Nasdaq its worst day since mid-August on Thursday.
Overnight, Bloomberg reported OpenAI expects US$70 billion or more by year-end, and buyers came back to names like Oracle and Microsoft.
Not everyone is sold: Nvidia-backed Firmus pulled its US$5 billion IPO, saying the offer undervalued the business.
SpaceX Moves Into Wireless
SpaceX agreed to buy nationwide wireless airwaves from Grain Management to power Starlink Mobile.
AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile all sold off hard on the threat of a new rival.
Cell tower owners like American Tower and Crown Castle rallied, since a phone network still needs towers on the ground.
It’ll take time, though, since SpaceX only just got approval to launch the 15,000 satellites the service needs.
Consumers Are Feeling the Pinch
The University of Michigan’s sentiment index fell more than expected to 46.3, near May’s record low.
Year-ahead inflation expectations hit their highest since May as US$4 gas and tariffs keep pushing prices up.
Lower-income families and people with smaller stock portfolios soured the most.
The good news is people are still spending, helped by stock gains and a steady job market.
Daily Alert, Ryan Felsman, CBA Economics extract
S&P 500 rises to near-record level before Q3 earnings
Summary: Wall Street traders betting on solid third-quarter earnings results propelled US stocks within striking distance of their all-time highs, defying concerns about still-elevated energy costs and bond yields.
Most companies in the S&P500 index rose on Friday, though a gauge of chipmakers fell -0.4%.
Brent crude settled near US$105 per barrel as the prospect of a wave of Russian diesel hitting global markets competed with mounting supply risks. US Treasury cash trading will be closed on Monday for Columbus Day.
The US dollar notched its longest weekly advance since early 2025.
US sharemarkets ended higher on Friday as investors shifted their focus to the coming week, with the company earnings season set to start and US inflation data expected, which could shed light on the US Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy decision.
Big US banks Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley are all scheduled to release results. Analysts are expecting a roughly 25% increase in third-quarter S&P500 profits from a year earlier.
Of the 11 major sectors in the S&P500 index, the real estate sector outperformed, jumping 1.9%. Shares of Crown Castle surged 15.6% for their best day in 18 years, alongside a rally in cell tower names.
The gains followed an X post from SpaceX on the acquisition of a nationwide low-band spectrum licence portfolio. The SpaceX news sent communication services names 0.4% lower, with AT&T shares suffering their largest single-day slump since 2000, down -9.8%.
Energy stocks dropped -0.2% after US President Donald Trump said Russia would add to the US diesel supply. The Dow Jones index rose 0.8%, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq indexes both gained 0.6%.
European sharemarkets advanced on Friday as volatility in regional bond markets subsided and expectations of robust US earnings supported sentiment. Materials and financial services shares outperformed, increasing between 0.8% and 2%.
The pan-continental FTSEurofirst300 index rebounded 1% after two days of sharp declines. London’s blue-chip FTSE 100 index gained 1.1%.
US government bond yields rose on Friday as still-elevated energy costs stoked concerns about inflation and backed expectations for further US Federal Reserve interest rate increases.
The declines in bond prices pushed yields across maturities closer to their recent peaks after strong auctions over the week spurred a relief rally.
Two-year Treasury yields — which are most sensitive to the Fed’s policy path — rose four basis points to 4.79%, while 10-year Treasury yields were up 1 basis point to 5.24%.
Currencies were mixed against the US dollar on Friday. The euro was steady near US$1.1200, the Japanese yen dipped -0.2% to 158.31 and the Australian dollar gained 0.4% to US69.83 cents.
Global oil prices ticked higher on Friday as the prospect of a wave of Russian diesel hitting global markets competed with mounting supply risks, from fresh tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz to a hurricane in the US.
US President Donald Trump said in a social media post that his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, had agreed to immediately supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel to global markets.
Brent crude for December settlement rose 0.4% to settle at US$104.72 a barrel. Nymex WTI crude for November delivery also gained 0.4% to settle at US$91.85 a barrel.
Gold futures rose for a second straight session on Friday, as bargain buying emerged after bullion fell to a two-month low earlier in the week, while traders assessed the likelihood of further Fed interest rate hikes.
US futures for December delivery gained 1.4% to settle at US$4,216.30 an ounce.
Iron ore futures fell on Friday as ample supplies and a subdued demand outlook weighed on prices of the steelmaking ingredient. US futures slipped -0.3% to US$90.68 a tonne.
US Markets Call: Is The 10-Year Bond Yield Back To The Old Normal? By Ed Yardeni & Toby Hearst
I. Bonds: The Economist just rang the all-clear siren for the bond market. It is safe to buy bonds now that the front cover of the October 10 magazine is titled “Will bonds blow up?”
This and other national magazines’ cover stories have often been great contrary indicators. It’s the “front-page curse” (once magazines put in the time it takes them to produce a cover article on a financial market trend, investors have moved on).
We think the 10-year Treasury bond yield is back to normal this year, i.e., in the 4.00% to 5.00% range . We’ve disputed the widespread notion that “interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer.”
That implies that they should come back down at some point. We’ve argued that “interest rates are likely to stay normal for longer.” They were abnormally low between the Great Financial Crisis and the Great Virus Crisis, when central banks rigged the fixed-income markets with zero and near-zero interest-rate policies and quantitative easing.
As bond yields rose in recent months to the top end of what we consider the normal range, we expected buyers to be attracted by higher yields, so we expected the range to be maintained (that’s what happened in 2023, when the yield spiked to 5.00% in late October).
This time, the yield spiked above the normal range, to around 5.25% (as it did during the 4.00%-5.00% normal-range period from 2002–07).
In recent conversations with several of our institutional accounts, many expressed interest in buying bonds at yields above 5.00%.
A slice-and-dice analysis of the 10-year yield shows that its rise this year has been almost entirely attributable to the rise in the comparable TIPS yield. The spread, which is a proxy for inflation expectations over the next 10 years, has been range-bound, roughly between 2.00% and 2.50%, since 2023.
Since 2023, the TIPS yield has closely tracked the Weekly Economic Index, which tracks the growth rate in real GDP on a y/y basis. This supports our view that the increase in US nominal yields has been driven by better-than-expected economic growth.
In the past, the expected inflation spread was highly correlated with the price of a barrel of crude oil. That correlation has been weaker since 2023. Bond investors seem to believe that inflation will remain low, in the 2.00%-2.50% y/y range, over the rest of the Roaring 2020s and into the Roaring 2030s.
We agree.
Nevertheless, we can’t rule out the possibility that another spike in oil prices, driven by a re-escalation of the war in the Middle East, could push nominal bond yields higher. If so, that will likely be another buying opportunity.
By the way, the expected inflation spread closely tracks the 10-year forward inflation-linked swap.
All major forward inflation-linked swaps are roughly in the 2.00%-2.50% range.
Meanwhile, the link between the 13-week change in the 10-year nominal yield and the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index suggests that the former’s recent climb should abate.
II. Stocks: The steep rise in bond yields since mid-August has weighed on the S&P500 equal-weight stock price index, while the market-weighted index rose to record highs last week. The former may be finding support at its 200-day moving average.
The gap between XMAGS’s outperformance and MAGS’s underperformance has narrowed since mid-August as bond yields jumped. Over the past couple of weeks, they have both done well.
The Russell2000 has also dipped as bond yields have soared since late summer. The index is back at its 200-day moving average, which should hold if US bond yields continue to stabilise.
III. Sentiment: Investor sentiment turned more bullish last week, according to the two bull-bear ratios we track.
Like the front-page curse, they also tend to be contrary indicators. However, they aren’t bullish enough to be bearish for stocks.
Technical backdrop – MACD turns up just below the record, Lance Roberts, Bull/Bear Report extract
The S&P500 closed Friday at 7,811.51, up 1.15% for the week and less than -0.1% below Tuesday’s record close. The index sits 1.4% above its 50-day moving average near 7,700 and 7.7% above its 200-day average near 7,250.
Both averages are rising, which keeps the primary trend intact.
Zoom out, and the chart shows a market that has spent two months in a range. Since mid-August, the index has chopped between roughly 7,570 and 7,800 before this week’s push to a record close.
Ranges that resolve near the highs usually favour continuation, but this one is resolving on a narrow foundation. The 200-day average sits -7.7% below the close, so the longer-term trend has plenty of cushion. That distance also shows how far a normal correction could run without breaking the bull market.
Momentum improved. The 14-day RSI rose to 59.8 from 54.5 a week ago, leaving room before the 70 line that marks overbought territory. MACD crossed back above its signal line this week, a fresh buy signal after September’s chop. The index also sits about 1.5 standard deviations above its 20-day mean, so the upper Bollinger Band near 7,846 is the first ceiling.
Breadth is where the story gets more complicated. Only three of the 11 sector ETFs sit above their 50-day averages. Technology leads at 5.1% above, followed by energy at 3.7% and health care at 1.2%, which reclaimed its line this week.
Last week, only two sectors cleared that bar. The laggards also closed much of the gap. Real estate improved to -4.1% below its average from -7.1%, and utilities to -2.0% below its average from -6.7%. Financials, the group that reports first next week, still sit -3.1% below their average.
That improvement cuts both ways. Oversold sectors are exactly where a broadening move has to come from, and the equal-weight index outperformed this week. But the defensive rally came as semiconductors fell -4.5%, with chips driving earnings growth. Evercore also counts a record 140 S&P500 members with negative beta, per Friday’s commentary.
A record standing on a few names is NOT the same as a broad advance.
For traders, the playbook is simple. Don’t chase the market while it’s sitting at the resistance of previous highs. A close above the record and the upper band near 7,846, with semis participating, would open a run towards 8,000.
Pullbacks towards the 50-day average near 7,700 are the place to add exposure. A break below the September 16 low of 7,567, which also lines up with the lower Bollinger Band, would warrant raising hedges and cash.
We continue to recommend rebalancing winners back to target weights ahead of earnings and using the 50-day average as the stop-loss line.
The level that matters next week is the record close at 7,818.93. A close above it, with chips joining in, confirms the breakout. A failure there, with bank earnings and CPI on deck, likely keeps the index boxed between 7,700 and 7,850.
A close below 7,700 would shift the near-term trend back to neutral.
Corporate news in Australia:
- Electro Optic Systems ((EOS)) secures a $700m Middle Eastern counter-drone contract, with most revenue expected in the first two years after the contract becomes unconditional
- Ray Dalio and the Bell family sell six Riverina farms to Banyandah Pastoral for $300m as they wind up their agricultural investment platform
- Justin Levis and Brand Collective submit competing proposals to rescue Cue and Veronika Maine from administration
- Ebos Group ((EBO)) reportedly attracts private equity takeover interest, with investment bankers sounding out potential buyers following share price weakness
- GenesisCare’s private equity owners consider a sale or stock market relisting, with Jefferies Australia advising on the options
- Firmus abandons its proposed $8bn ASX IPO amid subdued investor demand, turning to private funding and potentially a Nasdaq listing
- Maas Group ((MGH)) retains $1.1bn in Firmus contracts despite the abandoned IPO, as tensions with CDC and concerns over valuation and growth prospects emerge
- Guzman y Gomez ((GYG)) reaffirms FY27 guidance following strong 1Q sales growth and extends its share buyback by up to $100m
- Glencore, ahead of its ASX-listing, has not ruled out another merger attempt with Rio Tinto ((RIO))
- Warburg Pincus-backed Princeton Digital agrees to pay $300m for ESR’s Melbourne data centre, assuming the associated leasing risk.
On the calendar today:
-JP Public Holiday
-US Fed Hammack speaks at NABE conference
-US Public Holiday
-CIVMEC LIMITED ((CVL)) ex-div 3.50c (100%)
-GQG PARTNERS INC ((GQG)) Qtrly update
-WASHINGTON H. SOUL PATTINSON AND COMPANY LIMITED ((SOL)) ex-div 63.00c (100%)
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 4193.87 | + 58.40 | 1.41% |
| Silver (oz) | 60.80 | + 1.58 | 2.67% |
| Copper (lb) | 6.66 | + 0.15 | 2.30% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.39 | – 0.02 | – 1.52% |
| Nickel (lb) | 7.05 | – 0.04 | – 0.61% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.74 | + 0.02 | 1.08% |
| West Texas Crude | 91.66 | + 0.87 | 0.96% |
| Brent Crude | 104.43 | + 1.06 | 1.03% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 90.68 | – 0.30 | – 0.33% |
The Australian share market over the past thirty days…
| Index | 09 Oct 2026 | Week To Date | Month To Date (Oct) | Quarter To Date (Oct-Dec) | Year To Date (2026) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 8716.60 | 0.40% | -0.83% | -0.83% | 0.03% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| ALD | Ampol | Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| AMP | AMP | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS |
| BOQ | Bank of Queensland | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Morgans |
| BPT | Beach Energy | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| ELV | Elevra Lithium | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| FMG | Fortescue | Downgrade to Trim from Hold | Morgans |
| HUB | Hub24 | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| IGO | IGO Ltd | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| LTR | Liontown | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| NWL | Netwealth Group | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| ORG | Origin Energy | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| ORI | Orica | Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy | Morgans |
| PDN | Paladin Energy | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| PLS | PLS Group | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| QBE | QBE Insurance | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
| RRL | Regis Resources | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| SFR | Sandfire Resources | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | UBS |
| WDS | Woodside Energy | Upgrade to Hold from Sell | Ord Minnett |
For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author’s and not by association FNArena’s – see disclaimer on the website)
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CVL - CIVMEC LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EBO - EBOS GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EOS - ELECTRO OPTIC SYSTEMS HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GQG - GQG PARTNERS INC
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GYG - GUZMAN Y GOMEZ LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MGH - MAAS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RIO - RIO TINTO LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SOL - WASHINGTON H. SOUL PATTINSON AND COMPANY LIMITED