Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
In this week's In Brief, three initiations on a mega-scale WA gold developer, Australia's premier olive oil producer, and an offshore energy materials specialist.
- Benz Mining targeted for mega-scale WA gold development
- Cobram Estate Olives set for US-driven expansion
- Advanced Innergy positioned for margin expansion following Matrix acquisition
By Valery Prihartono
This week's quote comes from Dr Jonathan Kearns, Challenger:
"Inflation was strong again in the September quarter, highlighting that the RBA has more to do to reduce excess demand in the economy.
"The RBA faces a delicate balance: restrain demand enough to slow inflation, but not too much.
"The RBA will have to hike on Melbourne Cup day, delivering a rate rise that will stop the nation, but hopefully not the economy."
Plus a bonus quote from Westpac:
"New Westpac research has revealed mixed attitudes towards falling house prices, with more than two in three (68%) Australians believing falling prices would be good for the country, while almost the same proportion (67%) are concerned property values could fall further.
"The latest Westpac Home Ownership Report found Gen Z are the most likely to agree falling house prices would be good for Australia (78%), followed by Millennials (69%), Gen X (67%) and Baby Boomers (58%)."
Gold plus tungsten; and undervalued
Shaw and Partners initiated coverage of Benz Mining Corp ((BNZ)), a gold exploration and development company, with a Buy rating and a $7.75 target price, representing an 84% premium to its share price of $4.22 at the time.
Yesterday, those shares closed at $4.41 for a market capitalisation of circa $1.27bn.
The report highlights the company's flagship Glenburgh Gold Project in Western Australia, which hosts a massive 10.1–12.0Moz Exploration Target at 0.6–0.7g/t gold, including a higher-grade core of 6.1–7.3Moz at 1.7–1.8g/t.
Shaw and Partners models a 10Mtpa processing plant producing approximately 360,000 to 430,000 ounces per annum over its initial decade of operation, at a real all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $2,700–3,000/oz.
Beyond gold, the broker notes significant upside from widespread tungsten by-product potential across the project, which could generate up to $220m per year in incremental revenue. Secondary assets in Quebec (Eastmain) and WA (Mt Egerton) provide further optionality.
Near-term catalysts include a maiden JORC-compliant Mineral Resource estimate targeted for late Q1 CY27. Key risks include resource conversion, metallurgical performance, funding requirements, and commodity price fluctuations.
US long runway potential
Jarden initiated coverage of Cobram Estate Olives ((CBO)), Australia’s premier olive oil producer, with an Overweight rating and a $3.00 target price against a $2.74 last close.
By pure coincidence, the FNArena website is showing the exact same market capitalisation for Cobram and the aforementioned Benz Mining, though we also note the corresponding numbers on the ASX website are slightly different.
Jarden notes Cobram's dominant domestic position, with a 36% market share in Australian supermarkets, and highlights accelerating offshore growth in the US through California Olive Ranch (COR).
Growth is expected to be driven by volume expansion as young groves mature in both Australia and the US, alongside yield enhancements achieved by deploying Cobram's proprietary farming and milling techniques across its American operations.
Jarden suggests low per-capita consumption of extra virgin olive oil in the US provides a long runway for domestic market share gains. Accounting for biennial harvest cycles, the broker forecasts a 19% EBIT compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and a 29% EPS CAGR over the FY27–FY32 period on a two-year average basis.
Key risks include climate and weather volatility affecting crop yields, commodity pricing shifts, foreign exchange exposure, and execution risks surrounding US market scaling.
Similar to so many smaller cap share prices, Cobram shares started the calendar year around the $4 mark and this week briefly brushed against $2.50.
In the years leading up to mid-2025 most rallies in the share price failed to break through the glass ceiling at $2.
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