Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday November 2 to Friday November 6, 2026
Total Upgrades: 8
Total Downgrades: 13
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 64.89%; Hold 28.29%; Sell 6.82%
For the week ending Friday, 6 November 2026, the seven stockbrokers monitored daily by FNArena issued eight ratings upgrades and thirteen downgrades for individual ASX-listed companies.
Percentage falls in target prices and earnings forecasts exceed increases for a third consecutive week.
The average target for Australian data centre infrastructure operator NextDC rose by nearly 10% last week after Goodman Group and US-based Digital Realty launched a bid to acquire a combined stake of up to 9.9% at $9.50 per share.
Morgans raised its target by $4.00 to $11.50 and downgraded to Accumulate from Buy, suggesting a potential takeover value around $13 per share, despite funding and execution risks at M3.
The broker described NextDC as a quality business, with its valuation temporarily weighed down by investor concerns. Operational challenges are seen as manageable.
Morgan Stanley suggested strategic investors could help address funding concerns, and management could resolve operational challenges at M3 and unlock value through asset sales.
Turaco Gold follows with a rise of around 8% in target, despite a -10% reduction in average earnings forecast.
Described by Macquarie as a large, low-cost producer in a relatively stable jurisdiction, Turaco is acquiring the remaining 20% of its Afema Project for -US$79m, funded partly through a $120m placement and $10m share purchase plan at 60c per share.
The acquisition increases Turaco’s project ownership, supporting higher valuations, while additional shares dilute forecast EPS.
COG Financial Services’ consensus target also rose around 7% after first-quarter FY27 earnings increased 53% to $15.3m, in particular driven by growth in salary packaging.
Morgans sees the stock as undervalued at around 10 times FY27 earnings, although potential changes to electric vehicle tax concessions pose a risk.
Consensus targets for REA Group and ResMed rose by 5% following September-quarter results that respectively exceeded and met expectations, as detailed in FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor: https://fnarena.com/2026/11/06/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-06-11-2026/
Following recent share price strength, both Morgans and Ord Minnett downgraded their ratings for ResMed to Accumulate from Buy. For more on the result see: https://fnarena.com/2026/11/03/strong-resmed-result-comes-with-caveats/
ResMed also ranks second for positive change in earnings forecasts, behind National Australia Bank, whose FY26 earnings 'miss' (September year-end) is explained in the Results Monitor.
The apparent contradiction of rising earnings forecasts despite NAB's disappointing result reflects distortions during financial year-end reporting.
NAB's disappointment is now in the past and forecasts relate to FY27 and beyond. Within this context, it helps a lot when the previous year has been a doozy. See Stock Analysis on the website for more details.
Quarterly operational reports by lithium exposures IGO Ltd and Liontown resulted in a 7% rise in brokers' average earnings forecasts.
UBS highlighted stronger-than-expected September-quarter production at IGO’s Greenbushes operation, prompting a 5% upgrade to its FY27 EPS forecast.
Low costs and limited growth spending were highlighted as buffers against weak lithium prices, although battery storage destocking and uncertainty over TLEA dividends remain concerns.
TLEA stands for Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia, a joint venture between IGO Ltd (49%) and China's Tianqi Lithium (51%). Cash at the joint venture continues to build and the board will assess distributions in the December quarter.
Macquarie was disappointed by delays to IGO’s Strategic Options Review (SOR), which aims to maximise the long-term value of the Greenbushes lithium mine in Western Australia.
Ord Minnett upgraded its rating for Liontown to Buy from Hold following share price weakness, despite a softer-than-expected September quarter at Kathleen Valley, where underground development remains on track, with ramp-up targets unchanged.
Liquidity risks persist, although $502m in cash and additional funding options provide flexibility amid weak lithium prices, the analyst assessed.
On the flipside, the biggest fall in target last week was reserved for Australian gold exploration and production company, Catalyst Metals.
Morgans notes first-quarter FY27 gold production fell -30% quarter-on-quarter to 22.2koz, missing the broker's forecast by -23% due to staffing shortages and an extended plant shutdown. Costs (AISC) also exceeded forecasts by 45% at -$4,267/oz, while total liquidity reached $571m.
Management lowered FY27 production guidance to 90koz-105koz while raising cost guidance to $3,600oz-4,100/oz, -12% worse than UBS anticipated.
Production from the Trident underground and Old Highway developments has been deferred to FY28, with Bell Potter more concerned by the delays than the revised production guidance itself.
Eagers Automotive also disappointed analysts, receiving an-11% cut to target after FY26 profit guidance fell around -15% short of consensus, with Morgans noting weaker Australian trading amid elevated vehicle supply, softer demand and intensifying competition.
Morgan Stanley also pointed to higher interest costs and margin pressures, despite Eagers continuing to outperform the broader industry.
Earnings will likely recover as economic pressures ease, Morgans suggested, supported by Eagers' scale, exposure to Toyota and BYD, and expansion into Canada.
The midpoint of FY26 revenue guidance of $17.3bn–$17.5bn was -2% below consensus, with UBS forecasting a -36% year-on-year decline in second-half Australian pre-tax profit.
Cloud-based accounting software for businesses provider Xero also received a -10% cut to its average earnings forecast following updated research from Macquarie.
While reducing its target to $158.50 from $235.80 on lower long-term growth assumptions, the broker retained its Outperform rating.
It’s believed Xero's share price reflects excessive AI disruption concerns, overlooking its proprietary accounting data and US growth opportunities.
AI-native competitors are less competitive on price and functionality, Macquarie explained, while Xero's 7% US market penetration offers substantial upside.
AI-assisted development is expected to lift core annualised recurring revenue by 5.5% and improve the company’s Rule of 40 metric to 47% from 39%.
Despite describing high-purity alumina (HPA) manufacturer Alpha HPA’s quarterly update as “overwhelmingly positive” for its valuation, Bell Potter cut its target to $1.20 from $1.50.
Management aims to supply HPA-based products to the semiconductor, lithium-ion battery and light-emitting diode (LED) manufacturing sectors.
The reduction in target is due to a higher cost of capital and an increased risk assumption for the Alpha Sapphire business, reflecting broader macroeconomic and market conditions rather than company-specific concerns.
As a result, Alpha HPA appears fourth for percentage decline in consensus target and atop the table of negative earnings forecast changes.
African uranium explorer and project developer Deep Yellow suffered a -16% cut to its average earnings forecast.
Ord Minnett observed management has deferred a final investment decision (FID) on its Tumas uranium project in Namibia due to unfavourable equity market conditions.
Ord Minnett now assumes FID in mid-2027, pushing expected first production and associated capital expenditure back 12 months to the second half of 2029. The estimate for first production at Mulga Rock has been deferred by 12 months.
Despite the Tumas setback, Deep Yellow continues advancing Tumas towards construction readiness, with detailed engineering and procurement reached 85% completion during the September quarter. Civil and concrete works have also commenced, helping to de-risk future project execution, Ord Minnett noted.
Elsewhere, Coles Group appears in the negative lists for both target and earnings forecast after its first-quarter FY27 trading update and earnings guidance downgrade disappointed the market.
Management outlined a strategy to reverse declining market share: https://fnarena.com/2026/11/04/coles-resets-strategy-as-woolworths-fights-back/
Buy ratings now represent 64.89% of all ratings in the FNArena database, down from 65.23% in the prior week.
Neutral/Hold ratings take up 28.29%, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 6.82%.
Upgrade
4DMEDICAL LIMITED ((4DX)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/0
Ord Minnett cuts its target for 4DMedical to $2.40 from $3.00 but upgrades its rating to Hold from Sell following a sharp share price decline.
The broker remains cautious about sluggish revenue growth and accelerating cash burn, despite expanding commercial opportunities.
September-quarter revenue of $2.3m raises concerns over consensus FY27 forecasts of $23m.
Slower-than-expected commercialisation of CT lung imaging technology prompts revenue forecast cuts of -21%–25% across FY27–FY29.
Ord Minnett also pushes expected free cash flow (FCF) break-even to FY30 from FY29.
BOSS ENERGY LIMITED ((BOE)) Upgrade to Trim from Sell by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/1
Boss Energy delivered drummed production of 359,000 pounds from Honeymoon in the first quarter which beat expectations and came despite weather disruptions.
Morgans points out Alta Mesa production has fallen -95% year on year with permit delays subsequently forcing a halt to production and further reducing confidence in future growth.
Honeymoon must successfully implement the revised wide-spaced wellfield design, the key value driver, the broker adds.
Rating is upgraded to Trim from Sell, with Morgans noting a strong balance sheet and uranium inventory. Target is $1.35, up from $1.30.
CAPSTONE COPPER CORP. ((CSC)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/0/0
Ord Minnett cuts its target for Capstone Copper to $14 from $15 and upgrades to Buy from Hold, citing valuation upside.
The broker notes September-quarter copper production fell -13% to 45,218t, missing consensus by -6%, following operational disruptions and adverse weather.
Earnings exceeded the consensus expectation by 10%, potentially reflecting capitalised production costs, the analyst suggests.
Management retains 2026 production guidance of 200,000t–230,000t, although output is expected near the lower end.
Ord Minnett sees further valuation upside from sustained copper prices and undeveloped growth projects, including Mantoverde Phase 2 and Sierra Norte.
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