Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates ALD as Outperform (1) -

The ACCC has approved Ampol's acquisition of EG Group Australia, subject to the sale of 41 sites. Macquarie notes it is a cash settlement which infers, excluding the purchase, the company's gearing level would have declined below 2x.

The analyst explains the cash settlement for the equity component equates to a share buyback of $315m at $34.28 per share, or returning 80c per share to shareholders.

The broker extrapolates this as signalling a higher corporate valuation, which might be bringing forward the probability of policy reforms as well as 2Q26 earnings momentum.

Macquarie proposes a path to special dividends restarting by February 2028 when 2027 results are announced. EPS forecasts are raised by 25% in 2026 due to refining and F&I International, and lowered by -1.2% in 2027.

Target price lifts 14% to $46.50 with an Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $46.50 Current Price is $34.96 Difference: $11.54
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.37, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Overweight (1) -

In a first observation, Morgan Stanley expects a slightly positive response to the ACCC's approval of Ampol's acquisition of EG Australia, including the sale of 41 sites.

The analyst does not anticipate major earnings upgrades to consensus forecasts. Notably, with crack spreads quarter-to-date at US$40/bbl and spot at US$32/bbl, the broker believes Ampol can fund the acquisition without around 9.2m shares, or $310m, in scrip issuance.

Overweight. Target price is $35. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $34.96 Difference: $0.04
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.37, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALD as Buy (1) -

The ACCC has approved the acquisition of EG Australia's 512 service stations by Ampol, subject to 41 sites being on-sold to independent operator Metro Petroleum in order to alleviate concerns about reduced competition.

Ampol will take up the option to swap the planned scrip portion for cash, which means the final price paid to EG Group will be slightly higher at $1.115bn.

Ord Minnett notes commentary on the company's financial performance and balance sheet augurs well for the first half results due in August, although limited information means it was not possible to translate into hard numbers.

The broker raises the target to $36.60 from $36.00 and reiterates a Buy rating.

Target price is $36.60 Current Price is $34.96 Difference: $1.64
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.37, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as Buy (1) -

Citi believes AMP's growing focus on capital efficiency could support further share buybacks, particularly as new long-term incentive hurdles place greater emphasis on earnings per share growth.

The broker predicts up to $300m of capital could potentially be released from AMP Bank through additional securitisation and other funding initiatives. It's felt a rapid release would likely come at the expense of net interest margins.

The analysts see a more gradual approach as the most likely outcome, with annual capital releases of $50m-$100m helping improve returns while limiting margin pressure.

Commentary also highlights encouraging early momentum at the AMP GO digital bank, where deposits rose 49% quarter-on-quarter.

Citi retains a Buy rating and $1.80 target.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0.3
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.79, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AOV as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes operating conditions remain challenging for the 4x4 accessories market, with sales volumes declining across all major models, including the Navara, LandCruiser, Hilux, BT-50, Prado, Ranger, Triton and D-Max.

Ongoing Toyota supply constraints continue to weigh on demand, with the brand's market share falling to 15.3% from 21.5% a year earlier.

Industry indicators weakened further in May, with the 4x4/ARB index down -28.2% y/y.

While near-term trading conditions are expected to remain subdued, the broker retains an Outperform rating on Amotiv with an $11.90 target.

Target price is $11.90 Current Price is $6.34 Difference: $5.56
If AOV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.39, suggesting upside of 47.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates APA as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Citi has initiated coverage of APA Group with a Buy rating citing its secure, high-margin income streams, which are underpinned by CPI-linked, take-or-pay contracts and a strong customer base.

The broker believes gas will continue to play an important role in Australia's energy transition, creating opportunities for further pipeline expansion, including potential development linked to the Beetaloo Basin.

The group's contract power generation business is also seen as a potential growth avenue, particularly through behind-the-meter energy solutions for data centres.

Note: Behind-the-meter means instead of the data centre buying all its electricity from the grid, it receives power directly from APA's onsite or nearby generation assets.

Citi highlights an attractive free cash flow (FCF) profile, forecasting an 8% free cash flow (FCF) yield and annual growth of more than 3% through FY30.

A target of $11.10 is set.

Target price is $11.10 Current Price is $10.13 Difference: $0.97
If APA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.37, suggesting downside of -9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates APE as Outperform (1) -

May new vehicle sales declined -2.3% y/y, taking FY26-to-date volumes down -1.0%, although strong EV demand continued to provide support, with BYD and Tesla recording their highest monthly sales on record.

Macquarie notes recent VFACTS data supports comments from Eagers Automotive regarding robust EV demand, with the company benefiting from its significant exposure to BYD and a potential second-half boost from improving Toyota supply.

In contrast, broader industry conditions appear to be weakening, with Peter Warren Automotive ((PWR)) highlighting deteriorating trading conditions driven by fuel price volatility, higher interest rates and cost-of-living pressures, which are weighing on new vehicle margins.

The broker retains Outperform rating on Eagers Automotive with a $27.10 target.

Target price is $27.10 Current Price is $20.33 Difference: $6.77
If APE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.78, suggesting upside of 33.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes already challenging conditions in the Australian automotive market continue to deteriorate, creating a difficult backdrop for ARB Corp

May new vehicle sales data showed a further weakening in ARB's core pick-up and 4x4 market, with volumes falling -18% year-on-year, compared with a -2.3% decline for the broader vehicle market.

Passenger vehicle sales also weakened, the broker highlights, while medium SUV sales continued to grow, driven by electric and plug-in hybrid models.

While ARB recently announced increased investment in engineering, the broker questions whether this will be sufficient to offset the changing vehicle mix and ongoing cost-of-living pressures.

Neutral. Target $17.40.

Target price is $17.40 Current Price is $18.64 Difference: minus $1.24 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.12, suggesting upside of 37.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ARB as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes operating conditions remain challenging for the 4x4 accessories market, with sales volumes declining across all major models, including the Navara, LandCruiser, Hilux, BT-50, Prado, Ranger, Triton and D-Max.

Ongoing Toyota supply constraints continue to weigh on demand, with the brand's market share falling to 15.3% from 21.5% a year earlier.

Industry indicators weakened further in May, with the 4x4/ARB index down -28.2% y/y.

ARB Corp is rated Outperform with a $29.95 target price.

Target price is $29.95 Current Price is $18.64 Difference: $11.31
If ARB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.12, suggesting upside of 37.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ARB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes weak sales in key vehicle categories have meant earnings downgrades for ARB Corp of -4.2% for FY26 and -3.6% for FY27. Pressures from inconsistent manufacturer supply and high fuel prices have persisted.

The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries reported new vehicle sales fell -4.8% in May amid weaker light commercial vehicles while SUVs were largely flat. Sales of the company's targeted four-wheel-drive vehicles declined sharply, dropping -24.2% in May.

In the longer term, the broker considers the outlook positive with new vehicles and products being released globally. Earnings growth should also be helped by new and refurbished stores, offshore expansion and strategic partnerships with OEMs.

Target is reduced to $27.80 from $31.00 and a Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $27.80 Current Price is $18.64 Difference: $9.16
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.12, suggesting upside of 37.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASG as Outperform (1) -

May new vehicle sales declined -2.3% y/y, taking FY26-to-date volumes down -1.0%, although strong EV demand continued to provide support, with BYD and Tesla recording their highest monthly sales on record.

Macquarie notes recent VFACTS data supports comments from Eagers Automotive ((APE)) regarding robust EV demand, with the company benefiting from its significant exposure to BYD and a potential second-half boost from improving Toyota supply.

In contrast, broader industry conditions appear to be weakening, with Peter Warren Automotive ((PWR)) highlighting deteriorating trading conditions driven by fuel price volatility, higher interest rates and cost-of-living pressures, which are weighing on new vehicle margins.

An Outperform rating is retained on Autosports Group with a $3.25 target price.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $1.545
If ASG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 91% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASX as Buy (1) -

ASX shares have fallen more than -20% over the past week since it unveiled FY27 underlying cost growth of 25%, UBS observes.

Amid uncertainty on medium-term costs and capital expenditure, and ahead of the new CEO commencing on September 1, the broker believes there is upside risk to consensus expectations.

The FY27 PE of 17.3x is at its lowest level in over 20 years and a -35% discount to the long-term average so UBS envisages scope for a re-rating should consensus estimates for FY27-FY30 EPS growth of 3% reset towards its own forecast of 6%.

Buy rating and $62 target maintained.

Target price is $62.00 Current Price is $46.79 Difference: $15.21
If ASX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $54.43, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BIO as Buy (1) -

Biome Australia is introducing contract manufacturing in its home market of Australia, to assemble and package its activated probiotics range. The initial two-year term with Specialty Probiotics Australia is on an exclusive basis and subject to meeting quality and delivery standards.

The company will retain EU supply arrangements for EU markets. There is no upfront expenditure required for the contract and gross margins are expected to rise to more than 65% over 18 months from the first batch in September, along with eliminating extended sea freight time.

Bell Potter does not change estimates and awaits evidence of gross margin improvement but believes, conceptually, this is a positive development that should enhance operating leverage.

Buy rating and $1 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.73
If BIO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 270% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BRG as Buy (1) -

Citi is becoming less concerned about the competitive threat posed by SharkNinja to Breville Group's core coffee business and retains a Buy rating.

SharkNinja's latest espresso machine targets a different segment of the market, the analysts note.

SharkNinja has also expanded rapidly across multiple product categories, reducing the likelihood management attention remains concentrated on coffee, commentary suggests.

Citi also highlights SharkNinja's generally lower price points and suggests its products may help attract new consumers to the espresso category, potential customers of Breville over the longer term.

Target $39.85.

Target price is $39.85 Current Price is $28.43 Difference: $11.42
If BRG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.52, suggesting upside of 32.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EDV as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi lowers its target for Endeavour Group by -20c to $3.25 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral, despite elevated near-term uncertainty. The group's investor day also provided limited quantitative targets beyond cost reduction initiatives.

Putting aside these negatives, the broker sees potential for market share gains in the Retail division under new management's price leadership strategy and believes the company's scale positions it well in a competitive market.

Citi also identifies Coles Group's ((COL)) upcoming FY26 result in August as a potential catalyst, with the supermarket group currently reviewing the role of large-format liquor stores within its broader retail network.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: $0.38
If EDV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FPR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights a continued shift toward EVs, with FBT-exempt EV registrations rising 49% in 2H26-to-date compared with a -1% decline in overall vehicle registrations.

The broker believes higher fuel prices and supportive government EV policies are driving demand, which should translate into stronger novated lease settlements through the FBT incentive.

Growing EV adoption is also evident in order pipelines, with Smartgroup reporting a 40% year-on-year increase at March 2026.

Macquarie rates FleetPartners Group as Outperform with a $3.41 target. Smart Group is the preferred exposure.

Target price is $3.41 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.67
If FPR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GNC as Buy (1) -

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences has provided initial estimates for the 2026-27 Australian winter crop.

Ord Minnett notes, given a potentially disastrous forecast was anticipated because of below-average rainfall across major growing areas through to May, as well as fertiliser costs, the forecast is considered a significant positive development.

Some issues remain but good rain has relieved some areas in the last two weeks, underwriting an estimated crop of 23.8mt. While down -27% on 2025-26, the forecast is still 2.5% above the 10-year average.

This should ensure solid volumes for GrainCorp, the broker suggests, while increased grain prices will mean more on-farm storage will come into the company's network. Buy rating and $7.25 target maintained.

Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $4.99 Difference: $2.26
If GNC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.04, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates INA as Buy (1) -

Citi views Ingenia Communities' trading update positively, highlighting sales growth of 30% year-on-year and 428 deposits and contracts on hand supporting settlements through FY26 and FY27.

While expected FY26 settlements of 560-575 are slightly below the broker's forecast, retained earnings guidance suggests stronger margins than first anticipated.

Management also reiterated expectations for positive cash margins in the second half and highlighted competitive construction tendering conditions.

The analysts note the development pipeline has expanded to more than 8,000 potential land lease lots through acquisitions and site options.

Unchanged Buy rating and $5.00 target.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $1.06
If INA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.85, suggesting upside of 29.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates INA as Buy (1) -

Ingenia Communities delivered an "encouraging" update, UBS asserts, confirming it is in strong shape despite macro pressures. The company reiterated expectations for FY26 earnings at the top end of the guidance range which implies EBIT growth of 10%-15%.

Volume guidance for FY26 land lease settlements is in the range of 560-575 homes. The company also expects gross development margin expansion this year, which eases concerns about cost pressures stemming from the Iran conflict and inflation eating into margins, the broker adds.

The company has confirmed there has been minimal impact from costs and fuel during the Easter peak holiday season in terms of its holiday park business.

A sale process has commenced for some of the "lower growth" assets with an expected $140m in capital to be released in the next six months. UBS retains a Buy rating and $4.60 target.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $0.66
If INA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.85, suggesting upside of 29.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MP1 as Buy (1) -

Citi believes Megaport's latest contract wins provide a meaningful earnings tailwind.

The newly announced agreements could contribute around $165m in earnings (EBITDA) by FY28 and approximately $220m at full run-rate, the broker forecasts.

The broker views the establishment of an on-demand GPU pool as strategically consistent with Megaport's network strengths and notes the return profile for this appears more attractive than large contracted deals.

Management's assumptions may prove conservative, particularly if demand remains strong and growth in the core Network business continues to accelerate, according to Citi.

Target $15.65. Buy.

Target price is $15.65 Current Price is $16.61 Difference: minus $0.96 (current price is over target).
If MP1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.19, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MP1 as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating, stating "don't fight the momentum", as the company secures around a 20% internal rate of return on contracts and offers AI exposure with shorter lead times and lower capex requirements than data centres and neoclouds.

Management indicated around half of new contracts are with existing customers, while one major new customer operates global enterprise inference nodes, highlighting longer-term growth potential.

The analyst believes procurement and data centre capacity risks are lower than market expectations, given Megaport's strong operator relationships, premium economics, and diversified hardware supply options.

Potential for ASX100 inclusion within six months is also highlighted. EPS estimates are adjusted down by -52% for the equity issue and up 16% for FY27 and 84% for FY28.

Target price rises to $27.80, up 6% from $26.30 previously.

Target price is $27.80 Current Price is $16.61 Difference: $11.19
If MP1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.19, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MP1 as No Rating (-1) -

Megaport has four new AI infrastructure contracts worth $459m in total. Customers are all US-based tech providers running AI applications. The contracts require $370m in capital expenditure with a 27-month payback calculated.

FY26 guidance is for revenue of $307-315m which does not reflect strategic contracts. FY26 EBITDA margin guidance is unchanged.

The company has raised $89m in equity via a fully underwritten 1-for-3.08 pro rata accelerated non-renounceable entitlement of new ordinary shares.

UBS is pleased the original compute recurring revenue is delivering strong growth, although suspects this is in part driven by industry price increases related to elevated memory pricing. The broker is restricted on rating and target at present.

Current Price is $16.61. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $17.19, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Citi remains tactically bullish on uranium, expecting prices to rise above US$100/lb over the next three months as supportive supply and demand dynamics emerge.

On the supply side, the broker notes sulfuric acid shortages, exacerbated by the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, could constrain production growth.

Demand continues to be supported by growing global interest in nuclear energy, including reactor restarts, power uprates and new small modular reactor projects in the US, the analysts explain.

It's felt upstream nuclear supply chain companies are best positioned to benefit from the sector's growth.

For Paladin Energy: Buy rating and $15.00 target.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $11.85 Difference: $3.15
If PDN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.19, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RMD as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has reviewed its modelling for ResMed following the recent test results from Eli Lilly's new experimental weight loss drug, Retatrutide, and the assessment of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) product on its business.

The broker concludes the market is incorporating a far more negative scenario than is likely to happen: assuming 60% CPAP users classed as obese and 75% classed as overweight stop using machines in favour of these drugs. This would equate to mask and accessory sales in the US market falling by -50% in FY28.

The broker concedes weight loss drugs will reduce the total addressable market for the company over the medium and longer term but believes investors are pricing in a very unrealistic outcome.

Ord Minnett downgrades its target to $38.35 from $41.40 and reiterates a Buy rating.

Target price is $38.35 Current Price is $25.84 Difference: $12.51
If RMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.64, suggesting upside of 64.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SIQ as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights a continued shift toward EVs, with FBT-exempt EV registrations rising 49% in 2H26-to-date compared with a -1% decline in overall vehicle registrations.

The broker believes higher fuel prices and supportive government EV policies are driving demand, which should translate into stronger novated lease settlements through the FBT incentive.

Growing EV adoption is also evident in order pipelines, with Smartgroup reporting a 40% year-on-year increase at March 2026.

Smartgroup Corp retains an Outperform rating and $11.49 target and is the preferred exposure.

Target price is $11.49 Current Price is $11.44 Difference: $0.05
If SIQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.19, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SLC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie notes Superloop upgraded FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance to $118m-$122m from $112m-$120m. The midpoint of the upgrade aligns with consensus, but is lower than the analyst's forecast of $123m.

Notably, targets for FY29 were described as supercharged, with revenue over $1bn and around $200m in underlying earnings (EBITDA), implying a CAGR in EPS of 35%. The analyst forecasts Superloop can achieve these targets through organic growth.

Management lifted prices only on the sub-100Mbps plans and raised them by more than competitors. The analyst highlights the Smart Communities valuation is "longer-dated".

EPS forecasts are raised by 6.6% for FY27, with a lift in the target price by 5.7% to $3.70. The stock is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.59 Difference: $0.11
If SLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.68, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SLC as Buy (1) -

Superloop has pointed to strong subscriber growth across the consumer, business and wholesale segments at the end of April, exceeding UBS expectations.

New orders in consumer business are tracking around 4 percentage points ahead of its current market share of 5% and acquisition costs are relatively steady.

The company notes that business segment pricing has now stabilised and momentum is expected to accelerate, particularly for small- medium enterprises that are supported by a steady pipeline with respect to Smart Communities, where monthly ARPU is expected to step up to $50-$55, from $46, through FY27-FY29.

The broker is encouraged by the elevated subscriber growth which comes despite Superloop not being one of the cheapest challengers in the market. A Buy rating is reiterated. Target is lifted to $4.15 from $3.50.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.59 Difference: $0.56
If SLC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.68, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SRG as Buy (1) -

SRG Global has announced a significant update, with an upgrade to FY26 EBITDA guidance and the initial outlook for FY27.

Contracts have been awarded to the value of $1.85bn so far across the water, defence, energy, industrial marine and data centre sectors.

Guidance is now for EBITDA in the top end of the $164-168m range while FY27 EBITDA is estimated within a range of $190-200m.

Bell Potter upgrades its target to $4.25 from $3.15 to reflect more optimistic medium and longer term earnings expectations, along with a lower weighted average cost of capital.

The broker believes the 27% valuation premium to the industrial services peer group is justified and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.75 Difference: $0.5
If SRG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.55, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TLC as Neutral (3) -

Following Lottery Corp's investor day, Citi lowers its target by -10c to $5.00 and retains a Neutral rating.

A summary of the broker's initial research follows.

At first glance, Citi notes from today's Lottery Corp investor day that management outlined a strategy focused on accelerating growth through product innovation and digital engagement. Greater use of data and artificial intelligence was also stressed.

Management slightly reduced its FY26 operating expense guidance to $300m-$310m from $310m-$320m and aims to keep operating expense growth below normalised revenue growth over time.

Further upside from digital adoption was also identified, with digital penetration currently at 46% in Australia. Citi notes each one percentage point increase in digital penetration is estimated to add around $6m in earnings (EBITDA).

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If TLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.88, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLC as Outperform (1) -

Lottery Corp's Investor Day highlighted initiatives to underpin and accelerate volume growth, without management offering specific guidance, Macquarie notes.

The lack of specifics suggested to the analyst that management did not want to disappoint the market with a lack of financial upgrades from the proposed changes (product improvements, better use of retail, and digital engagement) against historical longer-term financial metrics.

The cost base has been $300m-$310m for the past three years, which stands at around 8% of revenue, with circa 50% relating to staff.

The expected $10m in savings in FY27 is anticipated to be reinvested. Macquarie expects operating leverage should improve.

Target price moves up to $6.00 from $5.80. No change to the Outperform rating.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: $0.84
If TLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.88, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLC as Buy (1) -

UBS points out the strategy briefing from Lottery Corp largely formalised opportunities that had been already flagged, while new products were hinted at but not provided in detail. The presentation did not reveal the company's medium-term targets.

The company's strategy has prioritised an improved digital experience for customers, related to growing the customer base and recurring revenue while lifting engagement.

The legislated loss of online Keno was revealed at -$25m in terms of EBITDA, while on the positive side a new BYOD distribution model has potential to improve the economics for venues that otherwise do not want to carry a traditional terminal, the broker observes.

Buy rating. Target is reduced to $6.15 from $6.20.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: $0.99
If TLC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.88, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Citi's initial reaction to the release of Treasury Wine Estates' investor day presentation is positive, noting the absence of any downgrade to FY26 or FY27 earnings expectations. Longer-term margin targets also imply upside to market forecasts, note the analysts.

Management will pursue a strategic and operational review of the Americas division. Early findings highlight strong luxury brand positioning but challenges from elevated inventory and excess supply chain capacity.

Citi expects the touted review to be well received by investors.

Management is targeting group earnings (EBITS) margins above 25% over the longer term, while inventory destocking is expected to conclude in China by FY27 and in the US by FY28.

Neutral. Target $4.25.

FY26 earnings guidance is expected to be in the range of $480m-$490m while FY27 earnings are expected to be at least equivalent to FY26. Citi notes consensus sits at $490m for FY27.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.12 Difference: $0.13
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.69, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VMM as Speculative Buy (1) -

Viridis Mining and Minerals' offtake letter of intent with Solvay did not encompass volumes and prices and underwhelmed the market, Ord Minnett notes.

The broker points out the announcement was aimed at the EU, not the market.

The announcement was designed to trigger a process whereby the EU will engage around funding and long-term price contracts. The "prize" is European Investment Bank funding, which needs to approve long-term contract prices.

The broker emphasises the Colossus project is on track to enter production in 2028 and has Brazilian government support while being chosen by the EU as a strategic project. Speculative Buy rating. Target is $4.70.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $1.15
If VMM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WTM as Speculative Buy (1) -

Waratah Minerals has received early stage metallurgical test work from the Spur zone, achieving gold recoveries of 95%-97% via gravity and conventional cyanide leaching.

Bell Potter points out the company is materially de-risking the discovery, noting the objective is to deliver rapid resource growth in high-grade discoveries at both Spur and Consols.

Results support the view the Spur project may host a major epithermal-porphyry gold system. The company has now consolidated ownership of all the tenure within the exploration lease.

The broker retains a Speculative Buy rating and raises its target to $1.05 from $0.95.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.35
If WTM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ZZZ as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley explains the listed AREITs in their coverage are trading at an average circa -11% discount to NTA with a wide dispersion range between different segments.

Office REITS including Centuria Office ((COF)) and Dexus ((DXS)) are trading at a -45% and -32% discount, respectively. Scentre Group ((SCG)) and Vicinity Centres ((VCX)) are at a 0% discount and the remaining REITS somewhere in between the analyst details.

The long term average Price/NTA across the REITS analysed stands at 0.97x which infers the sector on average has traded at NTA over the last 10-15 years.

The sector is viewed as looking at an "interesting valuation" and the broker believes asset devaluations like 2022-2024 are unlikely to emerge over the next 6-12 months.

Charter Hall ((CHC)) is not viewed as offering "strong" value but the stock along with Centuria Capital Group ((CNI)) are seen as "high-beta" stocks which can benefit from a change in sentiment from the market's over-cautious stance on asset valuations.

Target $2.05. Overweight rating. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.05

Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 404.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources