Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley retains a Cautious view on the banking sector. The broker believes the proposed changes to tax concessions will end the 30-year housing super cycle and change the outlook for residential mortgage growth.

The analyst has downgraded earnings forecasts for housing loan growth to an average of around 3% in FY27 and reduced EPS estimates by an average of -3% to -5%. Target prices have, on average, been downgraded by -6%.

ANZ Bank remains the preferred exposure with an Overweight rating and a lower target price of $34 from $36.20. EPS forecasts decline by around -3% for FY27 and -4% for FY28.

Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $34.48 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.64, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASX as Buy (1) -

ASX reported another month of strong trading activity in May, UBS highlights, with average daily futures volumes rising 21% and cash equity turnover increasing 17% year-on-year.

While capital raisings moderated compared with a strong prior period, overall trading trends remain favourable.

Second-half FY26 trading metrics continue to run ahead of consensus expectations across both futures and equities, the analysts observe.

Stronger market activity, combined with benefits from ASX's new pricing model, are expected to support revenue upside through FY27 and beyond. UBS also highlights potential gains from higher post-trade, issuer services and listings fees.

Buy rating and $62 target maintained.

Target price is $62.00 Current Price is $46.96 Difference: $15.04
If ASX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $54.43, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BEN as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley retains a Cautious view on the banking sector. The broker believes the proposed changes to tax concessions will end the 30-year housing super cycle and change the outlook for residential mortgage growth.

The analyst has downgraded earnings forecasts for housing loan growth to an average of around 3% in FY27 and reduced EPS estimates by an average of -3% to -5%. Target prices have, on average, been downgraded by -6%.

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank retains an Underweight rating with a lower target price of $9.80 from $10.10. EPS forecasts are downgraded by around -4% for FY27 and -7% for FY28.

Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $10.28 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.46, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

UBS has reviewed satellite images of the Jansen project, noting clear progress at both the mine site and port over the past year. The observations align with management's April update, which indicated Jansen Stage 1 was around 78% complete.

Management remains positive on the long-term outlook for potash demand, which is expected to grow by more than 70% by 2050, driven by population growth, changing diets, and the need for more efficient land use.

UBS notes an updated capex estimate, which increased to US$8.4bn from US$5.7bn in January, is expected in 4Q26. The broker anticipates Stages 1 and 2 will ramp up to 8.5mtpa of production by FY34.

The analyst forecasts Jansen will generate around US$1bn in EBITDA by FY30, rising to approximately US$2bn by FY33, representing around 5% of group earnings.

Neutral rating and $60 target retained.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $62.80 Difference: minus $2.8 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $57.40, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOQ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley retains a Cautious view on the banking sector. The broker believes the proposed changes to tax concessions will end the 30-year housing super cycle and change the outlook for residential mortgage growth.

The analyst has downgraded earnings forecasts for housing loan growth to an average of around 3% in FY27 and reduced EPS estimates by an average of -3% to -5%. Target prices have, on average, been downgraded by -6%.

Bank of Queensland retains an Equal-weight with a lower target price of $6.30 from $6.40. EPS forecasts are lowered by circa -3% for FY27 and -4% for FY28.

Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $6.09 Difference: $0.21
If BOQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.46, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley retains a Cautious view on the banking sector. The broker believes the proposed changes to tax concessions will end the 30-year housing super cycle and change the outlook for residential mortgage growth.

The analyst has downgraded earnings forecasts for housing loan growth to an average of around 3% in FY27 and reduced EPS estimates by an average of -3% to -5%. Target prices have, on average, been downgraded by -6%.

CommBank remains the least preferred major bank with an Underweight rating retained. Target price is lowered to $125 from $130.

EPS forecasts are reduced by around -3% for FY27 and -5% for FY28.

Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $163.73 Difference: minus $38.73 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $124.23, suggesting downside of -22.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CEN as Neutral (3) -

New Zealand electricity utilities have outperformed the broader NZX50 since February as investors have favoured defensive exposures amid economic uncertainty, UBS explains.

The sector is expected to deliver strong FY26 results, supported by favourable electricity pricing and generation conditions, driving sector earnings (EBITDAF) growth of 36% versus FY25.

While wholesale electricity prices have fallen sharply due to strong hydrology and subdued demand, UBS believes long-dated futures prices have declined too far given ongoing structural supply constraints.

The analysts see retailers benefiting from continued customer repricing and electricity prices remaining well above pre-covid levels.

UBS reinstates coverage of Contact Energy with a Neutral rating and NZ$9.75 target.

Current Price is $7.80. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EBR as Buy (1) -

EBR Systems has raised $150m in capital, slightly more than Bell Potter expected. The expansion in the share count is materially higher than estimated while the offer price of $0.38 was "significantly lower" than had been assumed.

The broker attributes this to the substantial decline in the share price over recent months as the market awaited the funding round, which the company expects to be the last in order to reach breakeven. Funding is primarily for scaling up the sales and marketing function as well as manufacturing, ongoing R&D and clinical work.

Bell Potter considers the capital raising a significant de-risking event and maintains a Buy rating with a $2 target.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $1.53
If EBR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 326% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates G50 as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans initiates coverage on Australian mineral exploration company G50 with a Speculative Buy rating and target of $2.14.

The company's US assets provide exposure to gold, silver, gallium and antimony, which the analysts view as a differentiated investment proposition amid growing US focus on domestic critical mineral supply chains.

The broker highlights resource growth potential at the Golconda gold project in Arizona, supported by recent drilling results and an exploration target of 1.1–4.3moz gold.

Commentary notes Golconda also hosts potentially significant gallium mineralisation, which may attract strategic funding and permitting support.

White Caps in Nevada adds gold exploration upside and antimony exposure, explains Morgans.

Target price is $2.14 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $1.35
If G50 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 171% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GNE as Neutral (3) -

New Zealand electricity utilities have outperformed the broader NZX50 since February as investors have favoured defensive exposures amid economic uncertainty, UBS explains.

The sector is expected to deliver strong FY26 results, supported by favourable electricity pricing and generation conditions, driving sector earnings (EBITDAF) growth of 36% versus FY25.

While wholesale electricity prices have fallen sharply due to strong hydrology and subdued demand, UBS believes long-dated futures prices have declined too far given ongoing structural supply constraints.

The analysts see retailers benefiting from continued customer repricing and electricity prices remaining well above pre-covid levels.

Neutral rating for Genesis Energy. Target rises to NZ$2.60 from NZ$2.55.

Current Price is $2.16. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IPX as Speculative Buy (1) -

IperionX has the results of the definitive feasibility study for the Titan rare earth project in the US. A 14-year project has been outlined with total development expenditure of $381m.

Phase 1 will be up to 4 years with 3.5mtpa ore feed while phase 2 of 5-14 years will have 10mtpa of ore feed. A heavy rare earth concentrate will be produced. The company can now undertake funding and partnership discussions.

While the metrics are positive, Bell Potter assesses the project is peripheral to the company's titanium recycling and manufacturing focus and remains as an option. Speculative Buy rating unchanged along with the $8.25 target.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $5.65 Difference: $2.6
If IPX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates KGN as Hold (3) -

Kogan.com provided a trading update that was ahead of Bell Potter's expectations. Gross sales growth of 18% was delivered for the first 10 months of FY26 while adjusted EBITDA of $38m was at an 8.5% margin and at the top end of the guidance range.

Estimates are updated while retaining some conservatism in the broker's view on FY27, given weak consumer expenditure.

Bell Potter continues to envisage some downside risk in a challenging and competitive e-commerce environment with EBITDA margins highly sensitive to the investment in sustaining growth.

Hold rating retained. Target is raised to $4.20 from $3.80.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.13 Difference: $0.07
If KGN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LYC as Neutral (3) -

Lynas Rare Earths has appointed Pol Le Roux, currently chief operating officer, as interim CEO. The board will update on the search in due course. This will follow the current CEO's, Amanda Lacaze, planned retirement on June 30.

Macquarie considers the timing and interim structure a highlight of the complexity of the role, requiring not only operating and strategic capability but also stakeholder management.

Increased focus on the Kalgoorlie ramp up is considered likely and the broker retains a Neutral rating with a $20 target.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $18.71 Difference: $1.29
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.77, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MP1 as Buy (1) -

Following Megaport's recent contract wins, Citi decides to substantially upgrade its earnings forecasts and raise its target to $22.10 from $15.70.

The broker notes the latest compute contracts are 1.8 times larger than the previous major win, although they carry slightly longer payback periods and greater execution risk.

Commentary explains the recent equity raising strengthens the balance sheet, leaving Megaport with net cash and capacity to fund additional growth opportunities.

A summary of the broker's original view on the contract wins follows.

Citi believes Megaport's latest contract wins provide a meaningful earnings tailwind.

The newly announced agreements could contribute around $165m in earnings (EBITDA) by FY28 and approximately $220m at full run-rate, the broker forecasts.

The broker views the establishment of an on-demand GPU pool as strategically consistent with Megaport's network strengths and notes the return profile for this appears more attractive than large contracted deals.

Management's assumptions may prove conservative, particularly if demand remains strong and growth in the core Network business continues to accelerate, according to Citi.

Target price is $22.10 Current Price is $16.61 Difference: $5.49
If MP1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.43, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MP1 as Buy (1) -

UBS believes Megaport's acquisition of Latitude has materially strengthened the company's earnings outlook, with contracts secured since November 2025 carrying annual recurring revenue 6.4 times larger than the acquired business.

The broker highlights accelerating AI and cloud demand, cross-selling opportunities with the network business, and balance sheet capacity to support further contract wins and growth investment.

While noting contract renewal risks exist during the next 2-3 year contract cycling period, the broker has assumed a very conservative decline in pricing of around -40% and further capex investment into new opportunities. UBS sees upside potential if AI adoption continues to drive demand.

The analyst also suggests forecast reinvestment into the Latitude business may prove conservative and sees scope for a further valuation re-rating as investors gain confidence in growth prospects.

UBS maintains a Buy rating and raises its target to $24.20 from $16.70.

Target price is $24.20 Current Price is $16.61 Difference: $7.59
If MP1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.43, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley retains a Cautious view on the banking sector. The broker believes the proposed changes to tax concessions will end the 30-year housing super cycle and change the outlook for residential mortgage growth.

The analyst has downgraded earnings forecasts for housing loan growth to an average of around 3% in FY27 and reduced EPS estimates by an average of -3% to -5%. Target prices have, on average, been downgraded by -6%.

National Australia Bank retains an Underweight rating with a lower target price of $34.50 from $37.20.

EPS forecasts have been downgraded by circa -3% to -4% for FY27/FY28.

Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $37.01 Difference: minus $2.51 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $38.75, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PFP as Outperform (1) -

Propel Funeral Partners has acquired three funeral service providers in New Zealand, expected to contribute around 700 funerals per annum.

Consideration is $9.1m and completion is expected in the fourth quarter of FY26 and first quarter of FY27, with combined earnings expected to be around 3% accretive in the first year.

The company has also flagged FY26 revenue guidance of $225-230m and operating EBITDA guidance $54.5-56.5m, both lower than Macquarie had previously estimated.

The broker downgrades FY26 underlying estimates for EPS by -9.3%, largely to reflect weaker volumes while inclusion of the acquisitions results in reduced downgrades of -4.2% for FY27 and -3.2% for FY28. Target is reduced to $5.50 from $5.75. Outperform.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $2.12
If PFP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 72.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PFP as Overweight (1) -

Propel Funeral Partners announced three acquisitions in NZ for up to a purchase price of AU$9.1m, delivering revenue of around AU$4m and up to 700-plus funerals, Morgan Stanley explains.

The acquisitions are due to be completed in 4Q26 or 1Q27 and be earnings positive in the first year.

Management also updated FY26 guidance, with a slight downgrade at the midpoint, the analyst observes. FY26 revenue midpoint guidance is below consensus current estimates by -3.8% and reflects a rise of 0.7% y/y.

Funerals performed are guided to around 22.85k, down -2.8% versus consensus.

Morgan Stanley remains Overweight with a $6 target. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $2.62
If PFP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 72.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TLC as Accumulate (2) -

The Lottery Corp's Investor Day outlined a new operating structure from July 1, with three standalone divisions expected to deliver $10m in annualised savings, Morgans highlights.

Savings will be reinvested into digital capability, AI and product development, the analyst explains.

Digital is seen as the key growth driver. Turnover has compounded at 22% annually since FY18 and the digital mix reached 41.2% in 1H26. The broker also sees growth opportunities from customer registration initiatives and the Keno transformation strategy.

Following softer jackpot activity and lower Keno forecasts, earnings estimates fall around -5% for FY26. Morgans retains an Accumulate rating and target of $5.90, down from $6.00.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: $0.69
If TLC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.86, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Following Treasury Wine Estates's investor day, Citi raises its target to $5.50 from $4.25 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

The broker is now more constructive on the medium-term outlook, with management outlining plans to simplify the portfolio, improve transparency and sharpen its consumer focus.

The company aims to reduce its brand portfolio to fewer than 30 labels from 76 while targeting a long-term earnings (EBITS) margin above 25%, compared with Citi's prior FY26 forecast of 19%.

A summary of the broker's initial research yesterday follows.

Citi's initial reaction to the release of Treasury Wine Estates' investor day presentation is positive, noting the absence of any downgrade to FY26 or FY27 earnings expectations. Longer-term margin targets also imply upside to market forecasts, note the analysts.

Management will pursue a strategic and operational review of the Americas division. Early findings highlight strong luxury brand positioning but challenges from elevated inventory and excess supply chain capacity.

Citi expects the touted review to be well received by investors.

Management is targeting group earnings (EBITS) margins above 25% over the longer term, while inventory destocking is expected to conclude in China by FY27 and in the US by FY28.

FY26 earnings guidance is expected to be in the range of $480m-$490m while FY27 earnings are expected to be at least equivalent to FY26. Citi notes consensus sits at $490m for FY27.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.66 Difference: $0.84
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.10, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates has provided a strategy briefing regarding its long-term plan. In the next 1-2 years Macquarie expects the stock will be driven by management's ability to execute against depletions driving customer destocking in China and the US as well as progress towards deleveraging.

The broker is pleased the near-term earnings profile has been partially de-risked, with EBITS guidance for FY26 of $480-490m and for FY27 to be at least equivalent.

Beyond that the pathway to growth remains unclear although Macquarie acknowledges the company has outlined a target to increase its EBITS margin to 25% in the longer term, from 19% in FY26.

First steps in the medium term including "right-sizing" inventory in China and the US. The broker believes investors can be patient and retains a Neutral rating. Target rises to $4.80 from $4.50.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.66 Difference: $0.14
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.10, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Equal-weight (3) -

At Treasury Wine Estates' Investor Day, management offered FY26 earnings (EBITS) guidance for the first time, which indicated to Morgan Stanley 5% sequential growth in 2H26 earnings versus the 1H26 result.

Notably, consensus expectations for FY26 earnings are at the bottom of the guidance range, and FY27 earnings (EBITS) were flagged to be at least the same as FY26. This is also broadly aligned with the FY27 consensus earnings forecast of $490m.

Cost-outs of $100m p.a. are targeted by FY29, with one-off costs of -$220m to -$260m. The analyst highlights management's expectations that the cost-outs will be cash positive post divestments.

Leverage is expected to top out at 2.9x before falling to the target of under 2.0x by the end of FY28. The brand portfolio will be simplified to fewer than 30 brands over five years from 76 brands currently.

Target price slips to $4.86 from $5.10. Equal-weight rated. Industry View: Cautious. EPS estimates are lifted slightly.

Target price is $4.86 Current Price is $4.66 Difference: $0.2
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.10, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TWE as Buy (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates' Investor Day was the positive share price catalyst Morgans was expecting, with FY26 earnings (EBITS) guidance of $480m-$490m slightly ahead of the consensus forecast. Ongoing Penfolds momentum is noted.

The company's multi-year Ascent transformation program will be aimed at improving margins, returns and balance sheet strength. Ascent targets -$100m in annual cost savings by FY29, portfolio simplification and leverage below 2.0x by FY28.

Management expects customer inventory rebalancing to constrain FY27 growth before revenue growth resumes in FY28.

Morgans upgrades its FY27 and FY28 earnings forecasts by 2.8% and 4.2%, respectively. The broker believes management can improve returns over time and strengthen the balance sheet. Morgans retains a Buy rating and target of $5.95, up from $5.30.

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $4.66 Difference: $1.29
If TWE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.10, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TWE as Hold (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates is reducing its brands, eliminating "non-core" brands in favour of higher-margin up-market brands. In its strategy briefing, the company has signalled a target of improved gross margins and higher returns on capital employed.

Ord Minnett considers the target EBITS margin of more than 25% over the long term "ambitious", as the company has not been able to grow the top line in the past decade, even with accretive acquisitions.

The broker points out non-core brands are about three quarters of business volumes and almost one third of sales revenue, making margin growth difficult without an equivalent reduction in the cost base.

A strategic review of the Americas operations is also underway. The most positive news was progress in fixing the Penfolds inventory and at the current rate Ord Minnett expects destocking to be completed by May next year. Hold rating and $4.50 target maintained.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.66 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.10, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Post Treasury Wine Estates' Investor Day, UBS lifts the target price to $5 from $4.50 while retaining a Neutral rating.

Management offered FY26 guidance and pointed to FY27 earnings being either in line with or above FY26.

A five-year transformation plan was detailed, with growth in revenue expected from FY28 onwards. Management noted three Power brands, Penfolds, DAOU and Matua, with seven regional Heroes, which are expected to grow to 90% from 68% of net sales revenue over five years.

Supply chain savings are expected to offset higher cost of goods sold per case due to lower volumes. Leverage was flagged to peak at 2.9x in FY26, with a target below 2.0x by FY28.

EPS forecasts are tweaked higher by 2% for FY26 and 3% for FY27.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.66 Difference: $0.34
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.10, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley retains a Cautious view on the banking sector. The broker believes the proposed changes to tax concessions will end the 30-year housing super cycle and change the outlook for residential mortgage growth.

The analyst has downgraded earnings forecasts for housing loan growth to an average of around 3% in FY27 and reduced EPS estimates by an average of -3% to -5%. Target prices have, on average, been downgraded by -6%.

Westpac is the second most preferred major bank, after ANZ Bank, but retains an Underweight rating. Target price falls to $31.50 from $34.00.

EPS forecasts are downgraded by around -3% for FY27 and -6% for FY28.

Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $35.24 Difference: minus $3.74 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.10, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources