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As far as activity and pricing in the U308 market were concerned, July was largely a non-event, but investors adopted a risk-off approach to uranium equities, as reflected in the decline of the Global X Uranium ETF (URA).
- U308 spot price ticks up in July on lighter volumes
- Boss, Bannerman, Lotus and Deep Yellow deliver quarterly updates
- Westinghouse moves towards an IPO
By Danielle Ecuyer
U308 markets largely tread water in July, while investors turn risk-off
As far as months go, July can be broadly characterised as somewhat of a “yawn” for the physical U308 market, whereas uranium equities experienced selling pressure, as exemplified by the Global X Uranium ETF, which retraced by some -13%.
As detailed by industry consultant TradeTech, the U308 exchange price ended July at US$86.50/lb, a rise of US$1.25/lb from June 30.
Over the month, the U308 spot price traded in a narrow range of US$84.90/lb-US$86.25/lb, compared to June’s almost identical US$84.50/lb-US$86.25/lb.
Sellers were keen to facilitate demand above US$86/lb, while total spot transactions came in at 1.3mlbs in July, down from 2.1mlbs in June.
TradeTech’s Mid-term Price Indicator remained unchanged at US$88/lb, as did the Long-term Price Indicator at US$97/lb.
Trends across the spot market diverged from recent monthly activity. TradeTech notes half of the material acquired in July involved transactions of 100klbs of U308, compared with smaller transaction volumes of around 50klbs of U308 in June.
Equally, the price disparity trend between delivery locations also moderated in July.
In other industry news, the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) 2025 Uranium Marketing Annual Report shows US civilian nuclear utilities purchased 46.9 million pounds of U3O8 equivalent during 2025, down -16% from the previous year.
The average purchase price rose 11% to a record US$58.46/lb, the highest since the report began.
Canada remained the largest supplier, accounting for 32% of uranium deliveries to the US, followed by Kazakhstan (28%), Australia (15%), Uzbekistan (7%) and Namibia (4%). US-origin uranium represented 7% of total deliveries.
Commercial uranium inventories increased to 170 million pounds U3O8e from 157 million pounds in 2024, driven by higher holdings from utilities and a 22% rise in inventories held by brokers and traders.
Meanwhile, Cameco and Brookfield Renewable Partners announced jointly owned Westinghouse has submitted a draft registration statement to the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch an IPO.
China announced government funding for eight new nuclear reactors at a reported cost of US$25bn as part of the country’s 15th Five-Year Plan to achieve 110GW of installed nuclear capacity by 2030.
As observed by TradeTech and highlighted over the last few weeks here at FNArena, there continues to be further evidence and confirmation of nuclear build-outs and rising demand for U308 over the medium to longer term.
The consultants validate this supposition, stating there has been a “slow but steady increase in term uranium requests”, with utilities looking at potential long-term commitments.
While TradeTech’s mid- and long-term price indicators were unchanged over July, the consultants explain utilities concentrated on three determinants in the market, including jurisdictions, the reliability of the seller and the aim of reducing pricing volatility through more market-based mechanisms.
Quarterly updates & broker reviews
July was also a month for U308 stocks to offer their June quarter updates, with Boss Energy ((BOE)), Bannerman Energy ((BMN)), Lotus Resources ((LOT)) and Deep Yellow ((DYL)) in focus over the last week.
Share price movements for Boss Energy and Lotus Resources moved into opposite extremities. Boss Energy shares rallied by 19.6% while shareholders in Lotus saw their equity value decline by -63.6%.
The latter delivered a genuine balance-sheet and dilution shock as the development of its Kayelekera project in Namibia required substantially more capital, which resulted in heavy dilution of shareholders’ capital.
Boss Energy
Boss Energy’s June quarter update was largely as expected, as noted by Morgan Stanley, with drummed U308 from Honeymoon of 362klbs, a slight miss on the broker’s forecast and consensus.
FY26 production was pre-flagged at 1.41mlbs. Alta Mesa production of 14klbs disappointed by -70% (Morgan Stanley) and -75% (consensus) due to permitting delays.
Ord Minnett remains the harshest critic of the results, comparing the update is with driving through the rearview mirror. The result is viewed as largely irrelevant ahead of a materially revised outlook for Honeymoon.
As much as Citi is upbeat about the appointment of the former Oil Search CEO to Boss, much will depend on the proposed wide-spaced wellfield design for Honeymoon.
As noted by Bell Potter, the main catalyst for the stock is the upcoming Honeymoon feasibility study and life-of-mine plan, scheduled for late August.
Shaw and Partners remains the most upbeat, with a target of $3.08 against the consensus target (daily monitored brokers) of $1.557. The latter slipped from $1.62, or -4%, prior to the update.
Shaw continues to forecast FY27 production of 1.7Mlbs at a cash unit cost of US$47/lb, compared to the cash cost in 4Q of US$45/lb.
Shaw has a Buy rating, as does Canaccord Genuity, with a $2.55 target price.
Daily monitored brokers (not including Shaw or Canaccord) are divided over four Buy-equivalent ratings and three Holds.
Bannerman Energy
Bannerman Energy continued to make progress at Etango, with Macquarie pointing to ongoing early works with an $18.6m investment in the June quarter. Bulk earthworks are now 92% complete and Phase 1 water pipeline construction reached 87% completion, alongside fully executed water and power supply agreements.
The key focus for investors is expected to be the finalisation of the US$321.5m CNNC transaction in the September quarter, which will see the Chinese partner invest in Bannerman Energy UK, with a final investment decision to follow soon after.
Bannerman had $53.1m in cash and $11.5m in liquid assets at the end of FY26, sufficient to cover the early works commitments of $36.2m.
For Macquarie, the CNNC partnership has materially de-risked Bannerman’s funding and development of Etango. The stock, rated Outperform rating with a $5 target, remains one of the broker’s top picks in the uranium sector.
Canaccord has a Speculative Buy rating and a $5.80 target, while Shaw is Buy rated with a $7.60 target.
Lotus Resources
Macquarie downgraded Lotus Resources to Neutral from Outperform following a one-for-one rights issue at a -67% discount, a $35m convertible and a detachable warrant at 85c.
The capital injection is described as a “rescue package” to allow production to restart at the Kayelekera mine and processing plant.
Macquarie attributes Lotus’ financial travails to the location of the mine, which has become a major logistics challenge, including trucking diesel and sulphuric acid into Malawi.
A lack of debt and working capital, together with the Middle East war and higher diesel and acid prices, have all contributed negatively.
First U308 production is now targeted for September. EPS forecasts are downgraded and the target price cut by -81% to 25c.
Ord Minnett (Hold) cut its target to 38c from $1in response to the dilution, while stressing the $95m equity raising provides a liquidity pathway to restart operations but does not alleviate the significant funding and execution risks..
Barrenjoey downgraded its target price to 50c from 70c. Lotus is expected to restart production in late July, with operations to resume in early August, subject to acid supply being reinstated.
The acid plant is due to be fully commissioned in 3Q2026. Steady-state production of 2.4Mlbs is flagged by late 2026, with Barrenjoey forecasting 1Q2027.
The stock is rated Neutral.
Deep Yellow
Deep Yellow’s decision to defer Tumas in 2025 is increasingly being validated, Morgans suggests, with uranium contract prices materially stronger than when the project was postponed, supporting improved project economics and potential value at final investment decision (FID).
Completion of the Independent Technical Expert review has satisfied lenders’ initial due diligence requirements, with the final debt facility size expected to be determined closer to FID as Deep Yellow optimises the capital structure.
While financing, execution and uranium market risks remain, Morgans believes the market is underappreciating the value of a development-ready uranium asset with significant leverage to improving industry fundamentals.
Morgans’ target falls to $2.00 from $2.56. Speculative Buy retained.
Macquarie estimates capex for the Tumas project at US$577m, pending the upcoming expenditure review.
Management has confirmed project financing with Nedbank is available and Macquarie highlights the pending decision around the extent of debt in the capital structure.
Outperform rated with a lower target of $2.00 from $2.25.
Much ado about nothing with short interests
Latest short interests from ASIC, as at July 27, 2026.
Lotus remained the second most shorted asset on the ASX at 22.49%, down slightly from the prior week’s 22.80%.
Paladin Energy ((PDN)) is in seventh position at 12.03%, up from 11.60% a week earlier.
Boss is in ninth position at 11.61%, down from 11.96%.
For more reading on uranium at FNArena, see:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/07/28/uranium-week-new-record-but-sentiment-rules/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/07/21/uranium-week-pricing-and-shares-disconnect/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/07/14/uranium-week-india-boosts-u308-demand/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 31/07/2026 | 0.0500 | 0.00% | $0.16 | $0.05 | |||
| AEE | 31/07/2026 | 0.1100 |  20.00% | $0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AEU | 31/07/2026 | 0.4400 | 20.25% | $0.75 | $0.22 | |||
| AGE | 31/07/2026 | 0.0500 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.02 | $0.080 | 60.0% | |
| AKN | 31/07/2026 | 0.0200 |  -12.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 31/07/2026 | 0.0400 | 2.33% | $0.12 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 31/07/2026 | 0.5100 | 1.00% | $0.70 | $0.37 | |||
| BMN | 31/07/2026 | 3.1800 | – 4.63% | $5.25 | $2.23 | $4.733 | 48.8% | |
| BOE | 31/07/2026 | 1.2300 | – 5.06% | $2.20 | $1.00 | 30.9 | $1.557 | 26.6% |
| BSN | 31/07/2026 | 0.0200 | – 8.70% | $0.08 | $0.02 | |||
| C29 | 31/07/2026 | 0.0100 | – 7.69% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 31/07/2026 | 0.2500 | – 5.88% | $0.39 | $0.10 | $0.300 | 20.0% | |
| CXU | 31/07/2026 | 0.1000 | -13.79% | $0.17 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 31/07/2026 | 0.2400 | -11.11% | $0.33 | $0.08 | $0.410 | 70.8% | |
| DYL | 31/07/2026 | 1.3200 | – 1.86% | $2.97 | $1.22 | -53.7 | $2.040 | 54.5% |
| EL8 | 31/07/2026 | 0.2300 | – 6.52% | $0.50 | $0.21 | |||
| HAR | 31/07/2026 | 0.0700 | -11.25% | $0.25 | $0.07 | |||
| I88 | 31/07/2026 | 0.1100 | 0.00% | $0.76 | $0.10 | |||
| KOB | 31/07/2026 | 0.0400 | – 8.33% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 31/07/2026 | 0.5300 | -27.81% | $0.93 | $0.50 | |||
| LOT | 31/07/2026 | 0.2500 | – 4.00% | $3.20 | $0.22 | $1.443 | 477.3% | |
| MEU | 31/07/2026 | 0.0800 | – 2.30% | $0.19 | $0.04 | |||
| NXG | 31/07/2026 | 12.9900 | 0.84% | $20.47 | $9.98 | -101.0 | $19.867 | 52.9% |
| ORP | 31/07/2026 | 0.1100 | 22.22% | $0.11 | $0.03 | |||
| PDN | 31/07/2026 | 9.4700 | – 1.57% | $15.10 | $6.26 | -630.5 | $12.379 | 30.7% |
| PEN | 31/07/2026 | 0.2800 | 12.24% | $1.08 | $0.23 | |||
| SLX | 31/07/2026 | 4.6400 | – 6.11% | $10.85 | $3.45 | |||
| WCN | 31/07/2026 | 0.0200 | -11.11% | $0.03 | $0.01 |
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BMN - BANNERMAN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE - BOSS ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DYL - DEEP YELLOW LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LOT - LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED