OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Shaw and Partners rates FFM as Buy, High Risk

Shaw and Partners reiterates a Buy, High Risk rating and $1.90 target price on FireFly Metals following strong extensional drilling results at its Green Bay Copper-Gold project.

Intercepts such as 12.4m at 6.8% copper equivalent significantly exceed the current 2% average grade and point to mineralisation well beyond existing resource boundaries, note the analysts.

The Green Bay resource currently stands at 59mt at 2% copper equivalent, including 1mt copper, 550koz gold, and 5.4moz silver, with 41% classified as Measured and Indicated.

A resource upgrade is expected in the September quarter, with Shaw forecasting sufficient scale to support a 15-year mine life at a 2mtpa production rate.

Macquarie rates SKC as Outperform

SkyCity Entertainment has downgraded FY25 earnings (EBITDA) guidance to NZ$216m, -8% from the prior midpoint, following a weaker March trading period, especially in the New Zealand consumer segment, explains Macquarie.

Mandatory Carded Play (MCP) is set to roll out by July 2025 and may reduce uncarded revenues by -5-7%, notes the analyst. 

Despite the downgrade, Macquarie sees upside from online gaming (launch expected in 2H26), asset monetisation options, and improving consumer sentiment from recent rate cuts.

However, the balance sheet is under pressure, observes the broker. Net debt/EBITDA is forecast to peak at 3.5x times in FY26, near covenant limits, and the broker factors in a potential -$75m fine related to the Adelaide compliance review. 

Overall, Macquarie suggests medium-term earnings catalysts are skewed to the upside and believes there is covenant headroom, despite increasing leverage.

No change to Outperform rating. The target falls by -6% to NZ$1.45.

Morgan Stanley rates SUL as Underweight

Super Retail Group’s 3Q25 update showed a mixed trading performance, assesses Morgan Stanley, with subdued retail conditions outside of BCF and a strong Easter period.

BCF delivered strong like-for-like (LFL) growth of 9.1%, outperforming the broker's expectations, while Rebel rose 3.5% but missed consensus. Supercheap Auto was flat at -0.1%, in line with 1H25 and Macpac declined slightly at -0.1%, missing expectations

Group gross margins remain under pressure, observe the analysts, tracking below the prior year and consistent with a circa -70bps decline in 1H25.

FY25 group cost guidance is unchanged, while FY26 costs are expected to worsen by around -$18m due to distribution centre duplication and HR system investment.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Underweight rating and a $12.20 target price, citing ongoing margin and cost pressures. Industry view is In-Line.