Uranium Week: Nuclear Conference Momentum

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This story features PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

The U308 spot market strengthened through August as transaction volumes increased and utility interest broadened across the mid- and long-term markets ahead of the World Nuclear Symposium.

• Uranium contracting gathers pace as utilities look to the 2030s
• TradeTech's Mid-Term price indicator rises to US$91/lb in August
• Paladin’s Atlas discovery adds another dimension to PLS
• NexGen advances Rook I as new uranium explorers join the ASX

By Danielle Ecuyer

U308 prices advance in August

August transpired into a relatively positive month for the U308 spot market with industry consultant TradeTech’s spot price indicator up US$3.75/lb from July 31 to US$89.75/lb.

On August 26, the spot price moved above US$90/lb for the first time since February 9, reaching US$90.25/lb.

As noted by the consultants, a total of 1.7mlbs of U308 was transacted in the spot market in August versus 1.3mlbs in July.

Notably, the previous month’s trend towards smaller-volume transactions of some 50klbs of U308 abated, with August evidencing most transactions calling for delivery of 100klbs of U308 or more.

The previous price disparity across delivery locations that was characteristic of prior months was also observed as less pronounced in August.

Another trend highlighted was utility activity in the mid-term delivery window over August, with eight transactions calling for delivery in the mid-term period.

While activity was notable in the mid-term market, several utilities were identified as seeking offers for material in the long-term market in the second half of August.

Some were as far out as 2038. One US utility was noted for seeking delivery of 400klbs p.a. between 2030 and 2034, while another US utility remains in the market seeking offers for uranium in the form of U308 or UF6 for delivery beginning in 2029.

The TradeTech Mid-Term price indicator came in at US$91/lb, up US$3/lb from July 31, while the Long-Term price indicator was unchanged from July 31, ending August 31 at US$97/lb.

For the week ending September 4, the TradeTech U308 spot price indicator rose US$0.55/lb to US$89.75/lb, with the Mid-Term and Long-Term price indicators the same as August 31.

Three transactions took place for the week, all concluded on August 31, with the spot market quiet for the balance of the week.

In the run-up to the World Nuclear Symposium on September 9-11, it is not unusual for U308 participants to become quieter prior to a major conference.

TradeTech flags several utilities are contemplating entry into the term uranium market and are anticipated to reach some decisions post the symposium.

Citi’s observation ahead of the symposium is uranium pricing remains relatively subdued ahead although term prices are holding at record highs of US$96/lb and spot SWU prices have risen to a fresh high of US$215/SWU.

The broker remains constructive on the nuclear fuel outlook, with uranium supply growth continuing to lag expectations and likely to underdeliver again this year.

Tighter Russian import restrictions and declining waiver volumes are expected to further constrain Western enrichment capacity, forcing utilities and enrichers to continue overfeeding.

Citi argues rising inventories reflect concerns over future fuel availability rather than excess supply, supporting sustained procurement demand across uranium and the broader nuclear fuel cycle.

Paladin’s Patterson Lake South project draws divergent views

In company news, Paladin Energy ((PDN)) was in focus post an investor update on its proposed mining sequence at Patterson Lake South.

As highlighted by Macquarie, management acknowledges resource upside potential at Triple R and remains upbeat around the above-ground tailings approach, as well as remaining open to collaboration with peers on common infrastructure development.

The major near-term objective for Paladin is to de-risk early-stage production while looking to expand the resource.

Regarding Atlas, Macquarie observes management sees potential for a larger mineralised system at Atlas, postulating it could be “20mlb-40mlb?”.

Comparatively, Saloon East seems to be a “broad, lower-grade satellite system”.

Macquarie expects some interesting discussions for Paladin at the upcoming conference regarding offtake agreements and possible PLS strategies.

The broker upgrades the stock to Outperform from Neutral with a higher target of $13.85, up 7% due to around 15mlb above ore reserves at the back end for PLS.

Bell Potter also came away from the investor day pointing out management re-iterated its strategy to optimise steady-state production at Langer Heinrich, while continuing to de-risk the PLS project towards development.

Bell Potter noted Paladin has 56% of Langer Heinrich sales exposed to market-linked prices out to 2030, while 85% of the broader ore reserve remains uncontracted or contracted at market-linked prices.

A Buy rating and unchanged $14.80 target are retained.

Ord Minnett retains a downbeat rating on Paladin post Investor Day, focusing on sustaining capex remaining high for mine stripping and TSF construction. Langer Heinrich is not expected to manage production rates of 6mlbs.

This broker lifts its sustaining capex forecast to -US$22m p.a. from -US$13m p.a. and now expects nameplate production for Langer Heinrich at 5.7mlbs p.a.

While gleaning a better understanding of PLS, Ord Minnett stresses the capex estimate at -US$1.2bn is not only probably understated but also “formidable”.

For PLS, the analyst added 93mlbs of U308 at 1.3% for expected resource discoveries between the existing discoveries and current deposits.

Ord Minnett also raised the mine-life model to 20 years at 10mlbs-plus per annum.

A Sell rating is retained, with the stock continuing to trade above the target price of $9.

Canaccord Genuity maintains a Buy rating for Paladin Energy with a $15.80 target price, while noting the Patterson Lake South project hosts the Triple R deposit containing 130.3m pounds of U308, which is expected to transform the company into a low-cost, multi-asset producer.

Recent economic updates outline life-of-mine cash costs of US$11.70/lb and pre-production capital expenditure of -US$1,226m, generating an estimated US$430m in average annual free cash flow at a US$90/lb uranium price.

Exploration upside remains a key focus after a 24,705m drilling program delivered high-grade results at the Atlas discovery, alongside ongoing extension drilling aimed at expanding the Triple R resource at depth and along strike.

RBC Capital retains an Outperform rating and $13.50 target while noting Kazakhstan is producing at full capacity, with marginal production moving to China, Russia and India, leaving Western utilities underserved.

This analyst explains utilities are now seeking supply into the mid-2030s and are looking to pay above-CPI base escalation, with Paladin having secured one such contract, as well as looking at equity stakes in development projects.

RBC highlights management has received PLS equity approaches from US counterparties.

NexGen updates on its Rook 1 project

UBS reports NexGen Energy’s ((NXG)) investor day served up a detailed update on Rook I, with more around the construction timeline, particularly the next 12-18 months.

There was no change to pre-production capex guidance of around -CA$2.2bn, albeit details on the funding strategy were observed as a little light on.

Management reconfirmed its Rook I development timeline, targeting first ore in 3Q30 following a four-year construction period, with -CA$100m of earthworks already completed alongside supporting site infrastructure.

UBS notes key milestones include site preparation and freeze plant installation in 2H26, shaft pre-sinking from 3Q27, main shaft sinking and underground development across 2028-29, and completion of surface and underground infrastructure in 2030.

Rook I is designed as a conventional underground uranium mine producing 30mlbs p.a., using long-hole and transverse stoping and incorporating underground ore handling and tailings infrastructure.

Shaft development requires freezing around 150-200m of ground, with the freeze system commencing in early 2027 ahead of pre-sinking.

The stock remains Buy rated with an $18.50 target price.

Lotus loses coverage & two uranium developers list

Macquarie ceased coverage of Lotus Resources ((LOT)) with a final rating of Neutral and a target of 25c, due to a reallocation of resources.

In other news, the ASX has had two fresh uranium IPO listings over the last couple of months.

NEU Horizon Uranium ((NHU)) listed on July 7 at an IPO price of 20c. NEU has two exploration exposures, one in northern Sweden and one in Canada’s Athabasca Basin.

The second listing was Powerhaus Uranium ((POW)) on August 25 at an IPO price of 20c. Its main project is Malbec in Chubut Province, Argentina, targeting around 2,000km2.

Short positions

According to ASIC data from August 31, Lotus Resources remains the second-most-shorted stock on the ASX at 15.03%, up 1.45% over the week.

Paladin is in ninth position at 11.09% and Boss Energy in fifteenth position at 9.81%, with Deep Yellow ((DYL)) in sixteenth position at 9.74%.

Uranium companies listed on the ASX:

ASX CODE	DATE	LAST PRICE	WEEKLY % MOVE	52WK HIGH	52WK LOW	P/E	CONSENSUS TARGET	UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE
1AE	04/09/2026	0.0600	1.82%	$0.16	$0.05
AEE	04/09/2026	0.1200	4.35%	$0.28	$0.10
AEU	04/09/2026	0.5200	– 0.93%	$0.75	$0.22
AGE	04/09/2026	0.0500	– 2.17%	$0.06	$0.02		$0.080	60.0%
AKN	04/09/2026	0.0200	0.00%	$0.03	$0.01
ASN	04/09/2026	0.0500	8.70%	$0.12	$0.04
BKY	04/09/2026	0.5000	9.47%	$0.70	$0.37
BMN	04/09/2026	4.4000	– 2.47%	$5.25	$2.77		$4.733	7.6%
BOE	04/09/2026	1.5300	5.28%	$2.20	$1.00	16.6	$1.486	– 2.9%
BSN	04/09/2026	0.0290	0.00%	$0.07	$0.02
C29	04/09/2026	0.0200	29.41%	$0.04	$0.01
CXO	04/09/2026	0.3300	-10.53%	$0.40	$0.10		$0.300	– 9.1%
CXU	04/09/2026	0.1000	– 9.09%	$0.17	$0.01
DEV	04/09/2026	0.2200	4.88%	$0.33	$0.08		$0.410	86.4%
DYL	04/09/2026	1.6800	1.22%	$2.97	$1.22	-193.8	$2.050	22.0%
EL8	04/09/2026	0.2700	0.00%	$0.50	$0.21
HAR	04/09/2026	0.0800	2.56%	$0.25	$0.07
I88	04/09/2026	0.1200	– 4.17%	$0.76	$0.10
KOB	04/09/2026	0.0400	10.53%	$0.09	$0.03
LAM	04/09/2026	0.6200	0.00%	$0.93	$0.50
LOT	04/09/2026	0.2500	– 5.88%	$3.20	$0.22		$2.040	716.0%
MEU	04/09/2026	0.0900	1.05%	$0.19	$0.04
NXG	04/09/2026	14.8600	0.96%	$20.47	$11.40	-134.2	$17.050	14.7%
ORP	04/09/2026	0.1400	0.00%	$0.16	$0.03
PDN	04/09/2026	11.7100	0.78%	$15.10	$7.45	50.5	$12.800	9.3%
PEN	04/09/2026	0.2900	1.72%	$1.08	$0.23
SLX	04/09/2026	5.2000	– 2.92%	$10.85	$3.86
WCN	04/09/2026	0.0200	– 5.88%	$0.03	$0.01

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