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This story features DEEP YELLOW LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DYL
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
The U308 spot market traded in a tight range as sentiment waxed and waned between bullish and cautious, with broader financial market sentiment weighed down by higher rates.
- Uranium spot prices resilient in the face of broad risk-off sentiment
- Deep Yellow moves Tumas closer to FID as long-term uranium prices strengthen
- Utility contracting remains active as uranium developers advance key projects
By Danielle Ecuyer
Activity in the term markets continues to percolate
Rising bond yields tempered enthusiasm for risk assets over the week past, excluding the AI trade, which remains robust outside of Australia.
TradeTech’s U3O8 spot price remained stable last week at US$89.75/lb.
There were five transactions identified in the U308 spot market, with TradeTech pointing out “resilience” in the price above US$89/lb, but softness as the price moves to US$90/lb or above.
As detailed by the consultants, sentiment towards U308 vacillates between bullish long-term views and the absence of immediate market momentum following the recent World Nuclear Symposium in London.
In the term uranium market, demand is identified as remaining strong. One utility entered the market seeking around 1.3mlbs of U308 to be delivered over a five-year period, starting in 2028, with offers no later than September 29.
One non-US utility continues to evaluate offers for 2.5mlbs over 2027-2031. The consultants observe several other utilities are reviewing information received in response to their Requests for Information for delivery of material over the long term.
TradeTech’s Mid-term price indicator stands at US$91.00/lb and the Long-term price indicator at US$97.00/lb.
Awaiting a final investment decision on Tumas
Morgans emphasised management’s strategic move to defer the final investment decision on Tumas has proven to be very timely, coinciding with a circa 20% rise in long-term U308 prices, as well as a more positive contracting backdrop for Deep Yellow ((DYL)).
The final investment decision is slated for 4Q2026, with engineering around 80% complete, bulk earthworks also complete and key infrastructure agreements in place.
Financing continues to move forward. The broker highlighted Tumas brings forth a “rare long-life” U308 asset, including a 118.2Mlb mineral resource, targeted production of 3.6Mlbpa and a mine life of over 30 years, giving the project scope to become a major uranium operation.
The scale and longevity of Tumas are notable with Morgans outlining it is a relatively shallow deposit, broadly 10m-60m deep, which will be developed using conventional open-pit mining.
Tumas sits in an established Namibian uranium district close to Paladin Energy’s ((PDN)) Langer Heinrich, Roessing and Husab mines, giving it access to existing roads, power, water, skilled labour and the Walvis Bay export route.
Regarding processing, around 55% of the mined material is expected to be rejected as barren material before leaching, reducing the volume that needs to pass through the more expensive parts of the plant.
Management then plans for Tumas to use ultrafiltration and nanofiltration membranes rather than conventional ion exchange to recover uranium and vanadium.
Deep Yellow expects uranium recoveries of 93% and believes the process should produce more chemically stable, lower-radioactivity tailings that can be returned to mined-out pits, potentially lowering capital and operating costs.
The trade-off is the membrane technology has not yet been demonstrated at commercial scale, which Morgans identifies as one of the project’s principal technical risks.
Funding is probably the most important near-term issue. Tumas development capex is estimated at US$575m, up 15% in its latest modelling and above Deep Yellow’s March 2026 estimate of US$474m in 2024 real terms.
The broker assumes an AU$200m equity raising in FY27, with the remainder funded through debt as required, and cautions the prospect of an equity raising could weigh on the shares as FID approaches.
Nedbank is the mandated lead arranger. An independent technical review of the project found no material technical, environmental or social issues.
Notably, the developer is identified as also being more than Tumas. The company has a total uranium resource base of around 242mlbs, with the 104.8mlbs Mulga Rock project in Western Australia providing the second major development opportunity.
Mulga Rock has the important advantage of having already secured State Ministerial approval and confirmation of “substantial commencement”, distinguishing it from projects affected by WA’s ban on new uranium mine approvals.
Morgans nevertheless thinks Mulga Rock could be delayed by 12-24 months because management is likely to prioritise financing, building and ramping up Tumas before committing substantial capital to a second major development; an updated feasibility study for Mulga Rock is underway.
Morgans’ valuation also shows how much of the Deep Yellow story extends beyond Tumas. Its risked valuation attributes A$0.91 per share to Tumas, A$0.72 to Mulga Rock and A$0.26 to the Alligator River assets, before cash and corporate costs.
The broker retains Speculative Buy and trims its target to $1.95 from $2.00.
FNArena’s daily monitored brokers have a consensus target price for Deep Yellow of $2.038, including Morgans, inferring 67% potential upside, with three Buy-equivalent ratings and one Hold-equivalent rating.
More U308 company updates
Peninsula Energy ((PEN)) released its recent drilling at Mine Unit 4 (MU-4), which has resulted in a boost to the mineral resource by 1Mlbs and supports Canaccord Genuity’s confidence in the 5.9Mlbs mineral resource.
While the drilling provides modest de-risking of MU-4, the broker stresses production performance and AISC remain far more important following the withdrawal of 2026 guidance in July and the -US$50m impairment associated with MU-1, 2 and 3.
MU-4 is expected to provide around 60% of 2026-27 production and become the model for developing the broader Lance resource, with the focus now on improving uranium recovery, flow rates and overall production performance.
Canaccord expects an operational update ahead of the September quarter result and makes no changes to production assumptions. The Speculative Buy rating and $0.80 target remain in place.
Kazatomprom has secured a six-year exclusive exploration licence for the Kyzyltu block in Kazakhstan, which is estimated to contain around 10,000 tonnes, or 26mlbs, of uranium resources.
The company also indicated changes to Russian sulphuric acid export regulations are not expected to have a material impact on operations or production guidance, with the measures involving a revised approval process rather than an export ban.
Russia has confirmed it intends to meet contracted sulphuric acid deliveries for 2026, while negotiations are underway for 2027 supply. The update reduces near-term concerns around sulphuric acid availability, while Kyzyltu provides additional longer-term resource potential.
ASX short interests
According to ASIC data up until September 21, Lotus Resources ((LOT)) remains the most shorted stock on the Australian market at 14.80%, down -2.16% over the prior week.
Boss Energy ((BOE)) is in third position at 12.79%, up 3.15%, and Paladin Energy ((PDN)) at 10.58%, down slightly from the prior week.
Deep Yellow stands at 8.54%, down from 9.67% in the week before, and is outside of the Top 20 largest short positions.
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 25/09/2026 | 0.0560 |  – 1.75% | $0.16 | $0.05 | |||
| AEE | 25/09/2026 | 0.1000 | 0.00% | $0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AEU | 25/09/2026 | 0.4200 | – 3.41% | $0.75 | $0.22 | |||
| AGE | 25/09/2026 | 0.0400 | – 2.38% | $0.06 | $0.02 | $0.080 |  100.0% | |
| AKN | 25/09/2026 | 0.0200 | -11.11% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 25/09/2026 | 0.0400 | – 2.22% | $0.12 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 25/09/2026 | 0.4700 | 1.08% | $0.70 | $0.37 | |||
| BMN | 25/09/2026 | 3.5800 | – 7.50% | $5.25 | $2.77 | $4.750 | 32.7% | |
| BOE | 25/09/2026 | 1.5300 | – 6.91% | $2.15 | $1.00 | 16.5 | $1.514 | – 1.0% |
| BSN | 25/09/2026 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.07 | $0.02 | |||
| C29 | 25/09/2026 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 25/09/2026 | 0.3200 | – 8.00% | $0.43 | $0.10 | $0.300 | – 6.3% | |
| CXU | 25/09/2026 | 0.0800 | – 8.16% | $0.17 | $0.02 | |||
| DEV | 25/09/2026 | 0.1800 | – 2.56% | $0.33 | $0.11 | $0.410 | 127.8% | |
| DYL | 25/09/2026 | 1.2200 | – 5.99% | $2.97 | $1.22 | -100.5 | $2.037 | 67.0% |
| EL8 | 25/09/2026 | 0.2300 | – 2.08% | $0.50 | $0.21 | |||
| HAR | 25/09/2026 | 0.0600 | – 1.61% | $0.25 | $0.06 | |||
| I88 | 25/09/2026 | 0.1000 | 0.00% | $0.76 | $0.10 | |||
| KOB | 25/09/2026 | 0.0300 | -11.11% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 25/09/2026 | 0.5700 | – 8.06% | $0.93 | $0.50 | |||
| LOT | 25/09/2026 | 0.2400 | – 2.00% | $3.20 | $0.21 | $0.380 | 58.3% | |
| MEU | 25/09/2026 | 0.0700 | – 2.90% | $0.19 | $0.05 | |||
| NXG | 25/09/2026 | 12.9600 | – 1.94% | $20.47 | $11.72 | -118.3 | $17.050 | 31.6% |
| ORP | 25/09/2026 | 0.1100 | – 8.33% | $0.16 | $0.04 | |||
| PDN | 25/09/2026 | 9.4400 | – 6.00% | $15.10 | $7.45 | 40.8 | $12.686 | 34.4% |
| PEN | 25/09/2026 | 0.2500 | – 3.77% | $1.08 | $0.23 | |||
| SLX | 25/09/2026 | 4.3700 | – 0.45% | $10.85 | $4.07 | |||
| WCN | 25/09/2026 | 0.0300 | – 3.57% | $0.03 | $0.01 |
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE - BOSS ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DYL - DEEP YELLOW LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LOT - LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PEN - PENINSULA ENERGY LIMITED