The Monday Report – 16 November 2026

This story features AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED, and other companies.
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US markets closed weaker on Friday, led lower by Nasdaq with the Dow Jones in positive territory.

It' s a big week for US markets with Nvidia earnings due after the close of US markets on Tuesday and Anthropic's IPO on Thursday.

Back home, the Australian market finished positive last week, with the AGM and earnings season set to roll on.

ASX200 futures are pointing to a flat-to-slightly weaker start on Monday morning.

World Overnight
SPI Overnight	9114.00	– 2.00	– 0.02%
S&P ASX 200	9082.20	– 64.60	– 0.71%
S&P500	7561.67	– 30.73	– 0.40%
Nasdaq Comp	25136.27	– 229.82	– 0.91%
DJIA	52347.55	+ 50.46	0.10%
S&P500 VIX	19.30	+ 0.60	3.21%
US 10-year yield	5.15	+ 0.05	1.00%
USD Index	103.18	+ 0.25	0.25%
FTSE100	10902.56	+ 39.47	0.36%
DAX30	26749.95	– 21.93	– 0.08%

Good Morning,

The ASX200 rose 0.68% last week to 9082.20 and is up 1.95% month to date.

Info Tech, Industrials, Materials, Utilities and Energy were the winning sectors last week, with selling pressure dominating for Consumer Discretionary and Staples.

On the calendar today is an Investor Briefing from BHP Group ((BHP)) while Elders ((ELD)) releases FY26 earnings.

For more details and to stay in touch with which companies are reporting, AGMs and going ex-dividend, check out the FNArena Calendar https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

Cochlear Investor Day, RBC Capital extract

Summary: COH’s investor day reaffirmed FY27 guidance, with management noting trading YTD has been in line with expectations and there has been no significant sales impact from Med-El’s TICI launch in Europe.

The investor day highlighted a wide range of growth initiatives, which we believe could provide a significant boost to CI activity. However, we do not expect any material benefits to eventuate for a number of years.

Management also revealed it has been developing a vestibular implant to treat bilateral vestibulopathy and is already conducting a feasibility study.

1. FY27 guidance reaffirmed. Management reaffirmed FY27 guidance for low single-digit constant currency sales revenue growth and underlying NPAT of $330m–$350m (vs RBCe $337m, consensus $339m). The assumptions outlined at the last result still hold. Management continues to expect developed market revenue to grow modestly, supported by referral pathway initiatives and DTC activity.

2. Trading update. Management said trading to the end of October 2026 had been in line with expectations, with developed market cochlear implant volumes growing by a mid-single-digit percentage. There are still challenges in the Middle East, but emerging markets are performing largely as management expected.

3. Strategies to address the low penetration of the adult market. The company outlined three strategies to increase penetration of the adult market: 1/ expand access to treatment by medicalising hearing loss and making implants the standard of care; 2/ shape the hearing implant category through innovation and setting the benchmark (e.g. TICI, drug-eluting electrodes, Nexa, smaller external devices); 3/ transform the care model by simplifying care, improving outcomes, expanding capacity and empowering recipients through the use of connected care and smart implants.

The analyst ascribes a Sector Perform rating and $117 target price.

Market Overview, J.L. Bernstein extract

Nvidia’s Slide Spreads to Its Rivals

Nvidia $NVDA fell again, and its market value dropped below US$4 trillion. It has lost roughly US$650 billion this week, its largest weekly loss on record.

HSBC cut the stock to hold and lowered its price target to US$170 from US$365 until a permanent CEO is named.

AMD $AMD and Broadcom $AVGO, which had rallied this week as Nvidia’s rivals, reversed and fell hard.

A Softer Inflation Number Didn’t Change the Fed Math

October wholesale prices rose less than economists expected, which gave stocks a lift at the open.

The 12-month rate still climbed to its highest since November 2022. Traders now treat a rate hike at the December 9 Fed meeting as a sure thing.

The dollar hit its highest level since April 2025, and bitcoin fell below US$70,000 for the first time since August.

Apple Hits a Record as Money Leaves AI

Apple $AAPL touched a record US$360.80, which puts its market value above uS$5.2 trillion.

It hasn’t signed up for the costly AI buildouts its big tech peers have, and Bernstein recently called the stock a “safe haven.”

Baird’s Ross Mayfield expects investors to keep moving into non-AI stocks, with or without the Nvidia news.

ANZ Bank, Australian Morning Focus, extract

Equity markets were softer on Friday night. The S&P500 closed down -0.4% and the Nasdaq down -0.9%. In Europe, the EuroStoxx50 eased -0.2%, while the FTSE 100 rose 0.4%.

The yield on the US 10y note rose 1bp to 5.14%. Oil prices were little changed, with WTI easing -0.2% to US$88.6/bbl. Gold fell -1.8% to US$3,884.5/oz.

US October PPI rose 0.3% m/m versus 0.4% expected. Goods inflation rose 0.5% m/m and services inflation rose 0.2% m/m. Final demand PPI excluding food, energy and trade rose 0.5% m/m.

A 3.9% m/m rise in chemical prices, alongside higher gas fuel and jet fuel prices, helped push goods prices higher. Diesel prices fell -7.9% over the month. Transportation costs rose 2.0% m/m, as rising distribution costs remain an upside risk to the inflation outlook.

Following the release of both CPI and PPI, we estimate core PCE inflation rose 0.3% m/m in October.

Euro area: 3Q employment was unchanged at 0.0% q/q and rose 0.4% y/y. The second estimate of GDP was unchanged at 0.4% q/q (1.3% y/y). The French economy is estimated to have contracted slightly in 3Q (-0.1% q/q).

Middle East: Iran targeted a helicopter base in Bahrain over the weekend with drones, the first direct strike on the country in weeks. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the move was in response to “blatant aggression by the US military”.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a senior negotiator in talks with the US, said the path to a resolution of the conflict remains open if the US accepts its “logical conditions”.

He added that Tehran would not remain in a state of “neither war nor peace”, according to a local news agency.

US: So far, published US October economic data support the case for additional tightening when the Fed meets on 8–9 December. Bond yields have climbed, with the 10y yield back above 5.0%.

The rise in yields reflects a perception, supported by incoming data, that the Fed missed a step by not raising interest rates in October.

October retail sales are expected to show control group sales, used in calculating private consumption in GDP data, rose 0.4% m/m. That would signal a solid start to 4Q consumption and support further tightening.

The Fed needs to lean against strong demand feeding higher prices.

San Francisco Fed research suggests demand-led inflation responds well to Fed tightening within a year.

We think timely tightening at sequential meetings will help return inflation sustainably to target.

US: The Fed’s shower dilemma, Oxford Economics, extract

• The Fed’s December meeting is shaping up to be a showdown between policymakers who favour a more aggressive rate hike and those advocating a gradual approach. Stronger job growth and stubborn inflation have strengthened the case for tightening, with Governor Waller among those signalling that a larger move may be warranted. The debate is no longer whether inflation remains too hot, but how forcefully the Fed should respond.
• There is a compelling case for both sides. Inflation has accelerated despite the waning impact of tariffs and a moderation in energy prices, suggesting underlying price pressures remain stubborn. With the labour market showing enough resilience to withstand higher rates, the Fed has more latitude to focus on its price stability mandate. But the delayed effects of monetary policy argue against overreacting, particularly when much of the economy’s growth is being propelled by sectors less sensitive to higher borrowing costs.
• The biggest casualty of further tightening may be an already struggling housing market, where high mortgage rates have frozen both buyers and sellers in place. That paralysis also contributes to a stagnant labour market by limiting workers’ ability to relocate to areas with better job opportunities. The Fed thus faces a delicate balancing act: how much economic slack must it create to bring inflation down without further undermining an economy that is already showing signs of diminished dynamism?

US Markets Call: Below The Calm Deep Blue Sea, Ed Yardeni & Toby Hearst, Yardeni QuickTakes, extract

The major stock market indexes have gone nowhere since early August. On the surface, the seas have been calm. Underneath, plenty of turbulence has been occurring. Most of the volatility has been within sectors.

In mid-September, we warned our readers to proceed with caution through the midterm elections. We expected and are now seeing buying opportunities.

The S&P500 closed at 7,561.67 on Friday. It has been fluctuating around 7,600 since August 3. We think it is set for another rally that should take it up to 7,900 by the end of this year.

I. Stock Market Performance

The S&P500 is down just -0.5% since August 3, while the equal-weight version of the index is up 1.8%. The MAGS ETF is up 0.4%, while the XMAGS ETF is up 1.2%. The Nasdaq is down -3.0%. Only the Russell2000 has moved much, falling -6.4%.

The sectors underneath the S&P500 have been choppier. Health Care has gained 16.4% since August 3, and Consumer Staples is up 10.8%. Communication Services is down -11.3%, and Industrials is down -7.9%. Information Technology, at the centre of the AI selloff, is down -3.5%.

The Information Technology sector has also been extremely turbulent below the surface. The Semiconductor Equipment and Semiconductors industries are down -23.9% and -13.6% since August 3.

Meanwhile, IT Consulting is up 22.3%. Application Software and Systems Software are up 12.0% and 4.5%. The crosscurrents have largely offset each other.

The Magnificent-7 stocks have diverged too. Nvidia’s market cap has dropped to US$3.92 trillion following news of CEO Jensen Huang’s resignation.

Apple’s market cap is at a record US$5.18 trillion. Alphabet’s fell after reporting earnings but has since stabilised at US$3.62 trillion.

II. Stock Market Earnings

Industry analysts are usually too optimistic about the earnings of the companies they follow. As quarterly earnings reporting seasons approach, they are often forced to cut their estimates.

That’s evident in their annual consensus “Earnings Squiggles”, which tend to start high and then fall to the reported results. This time, the annual Earnings Squiggles for 2026, 2027, and 2028 all are rising.

That’s highly unusual. It might reflect some irrational exuberance among analysts. Then again, they’ve gotten more optimistic as actual earnings have come in stronger than anticipated in recent quarters.

The recent market turbulence hasn’t dented S&P500 operating earnings-per-share estimates. The 2027 consensus rose to US$427.01 last week, and the 2028 consensus rose to US$496.24.

Both are new highs. Forward earnings hit another record high at US$420.15 per share, edging closer to the 2027 estimate. We are estimating US$425 for next year.

Q3’s consensus earnings growth estimate rose again, to 26.9% y/y from 25.9% a week earlier. Q4’s estimate edged up to 29.8%.

The Q2 actual earnings growth soared on mark-to-market accounting gains. Without them, earnings rose about 25% rather than 50.4%.

III. Stock Market Valuation

Valuation multiples continue to fall. The S&P500’s forward P/E is down to 18.0, while the Magnificent-7’s is down to 21.4. We think the contraction may be close to a bottom.

Our year-end S&P500 target implies a forward P/E of 18.6. Multiples usually shrink on recession fears. We don’t see a recession coming.

Expectations of a slowdown in the AI buildout may be weighing on valuations. In our view, the slowdown constitutes speed bumps, not roadblocks.

Only 36.1% of S&P500 stocks now trade above a forward P/E of 20, down from nearly 50% earlier this year. That’s a healthy development, driven by the air coming out of the AI bubble, which is now less likely to burst.

The multiple correction has been centred in S&P500 Growth, not Value, stocks. The S&P500 Growth forward P/E has dropped -27% to 19.0 from 26.0 at the start of this year, while Value is at 18.0, about the same as at the beginning of the year.

The spread between the Growth and Value forward P/Es has narrowed to just 1.0 point, the narrowest since 2010. Investors aren’t paying up for growth anymore.

Only three sectors have gotten more expensive this year: Real Estate, Consumer Staples, and Health Care.

Information Technology’s forward P/E has dropped from 26.5 at the end of last year to 17.2. Communication Services’ forward P/E is down from 22.1 to 17.0.

IV. Credit

The 10-year Treasury bond yield jumped to 5.10% after October’s CPI and PPI reports. That’s still below its October peak above 5.30%.

The 10-year yield is hovering near the top end of the 4.00%-5.00% range we consider normal.

The latest increase in the 10-year nominal yield has been attributable to the 10-year TIPS yield. The spread between the two, which is a proxy for 10-year expected inflation, remains low at 2.21%.

That’s surprising since the recent yield rise followed the hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI reports.

Credit default swap spreads rose in recent months on concerns about the debt of CoreWeave and other AI borrowers but have since narrowed.

We don’t see broadening credit stress.

V. Commodities

Commodity prices are signalling less inflationary pressure. The FIBER Commodities Spot Price Index is looking toppy.

The S&P GSCI Energy Spot Index also seems to be topping out along with oil prices.

Even diesel prices have come down substantially. The Gulf Coast spot price fell to US$4.11 a gallon from a peak above US$5.00 earlier this year.

Agricultural prices have also eased from their summer highs.

The copper price has been getting hit along with the AI trade. It has fallen to US$6.08 a pound from its recent record high above US$6.80.

The Bull/Bear Report, Lance Roberts, extract

The S&P500 finished the week at 7,561.67, up 2.5% and -3.3% below the October 6 record close of 7,818.93. Monday’s 2.35% gain did most of the work, reversing the prior week’s breakdown in a single session.

After that, the rally ran out of buyers. Thursday’s high of 7,653 stopped just short of the 50-day moving average at 7,667. The index then slipped in each of the last two sessions.

While the price action was more bullish, the moving averages tell a split story. The market index currently sits 3.0% above a rising 200-day average at 7,340. This leaves the primary uptrend intact.

However, it remains below both the 20-day mean of 7,613 and the 50-day mean of 7,667. More notably, the 50-day has also started to roll over, down from 7,679 a week ago.

Beyond the moving averages, RSI rebounded from 33.5 at the November 5 low to 47, a neutral level with no directional momentum.

Four of the six sessions from October 30 to November 6 closed below the lower 2-SD band. That’s the densest cluster since March. The index has since climbed back to roughly half a standard deviation below its 20-day mean.

The lower band now sits at 7,396. That’s the level where a retest would look washed out again.

Sector breadth is the strongest evidence this week, and it cuts both ways. Measured against each sector’s 50-day relative trend versus the S&P500, 10 of 11 sectors are outperforming.

Six are more than 5% above trend. Health Care (up 9.3%) and Staples (up 9.2%) are the most stretched. The equal-weight S&P500 (RSP) is also 4.2% above its relative trend. That is real “broadening.”

The catch is that the only oversold groups, Technology at -7.8% and semiconductors at -11.8%, represent the biggest single block of market value in the index, so the rest of the market can outperform for weeks without lifting the S&P500 to a new high.

The bullish case making the rounds this week is simple. If 10 of 11 sectors are beating the index, the market must be healthy. It is, below the surface.

But a cap-weighted index can’t make a new high while its largest sector sits -8% below trend. Either technology catches up to the market, or the market comes down to meet technology.

Such is why Tuesday’s Nvidia report matters for the whole tape, not just for one stock.

For shorter-term traders, the investing playbook for next week is fairly straightforward. If the market can close above the 50-day at 7,667, it would reopen the path to the record at 7,819.

For now, initial support is Friday’s low near 7,500, but below that, the 200-day average and the November 5 low converge at 7,340 to 7,350.

Most crucially, a close below July’s swing low at 7,316 would break the pattern of higher lows. Such a break would argue for raising cash and adding hedges to portfolios.

For now, until the index reclaims the 50-day, we continue to recommend trimming extended defensive positions as strength develops.

We are looking to add to growth stocks but only in measured tranches with confirmation, not on a bounce that has already stalled once.

Corporate news in Australia:

• Warburg Pincus drops exclusivity in takeover negotiations for Ingenia Communities ((INA)), maintaining its $5.55 cash offer plus an eligible distribution against rival bidder AVID’s $5.60 per security proposal
• EQT moves to acquire industrial auction house Pickles for over $1.5bn, taking its Australian dealmaking activity beyond $20bn
• HSBC Australia faces difficulties finding a buyer for its $20bn retail deposit book as it seeks to exit its remaining Australian retail banking operations
• Administrators of David Jones receive around 30 expressions of interest, including from Australian retail billionaires, Frasers Group and private equity firms, as the sale process advances
• Morrison explores a potential sale or reallocation of its stake in Telstra-backed mobile tower operator Amplitel, valued at over $5bn, issuing a right of first offer to fellow shareholders
• Tabcorp Holdings ((TAH)) defends its proposed $267m acquisition of BetMakers ((BET)), assuring rival bookmakers that customer data will remain inaccessible to Tabcorp
• Nine Entertainment ((NEC)) is reportedly being shopped to private equity firms for a potential takeover or break-up, although buyer interest has been limited
• JBS and Pacific Equity Partners emerge as potential buyers of Inghams Group ((ING)), while shareholder PSP Investments positions itself to influence any future sale
• Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL)) reportedly abandons a potential $1bn acquisition of Interblock amid shareholder pressure and a renewed focus on capital returns
• Lendlease Group ((LLC)) commences a $1.22bn bond redemption funded through its existing $1.25bn standby facility
• Paladin Energy ((PDN)) completes a fully underwritten $525m equity raising through Australian and Canadian share offerings to fund its PLS uranium project in Canada
• Australian-founded Nscale reveals mounting debt and more than US$3bn in convertible financing, including a US$2bn Nvidia commitment, ahead of a planned New York IPO
• Firmus pursues a $4.4bn private equity and debt raising, potentially supported by upfront payments from Nvidia and Meta, after abandoning its proposed $44bn ASX listing
• New Hope Corp ((NHC)) prepares a $250m fully franked ASX-listed hybrid securities offer, potentially the first issuance by an Australian non-financial company in around 20 years
• US activist Sachem Head acquires around 9% of UK property portal Rightmove and pushes for a sale, potentially reviving takeover interest following the rejection of REA Group’s ((REA)) US$8.29bn proposal in 2024

On the calendar today:

-JP 3Q GDP (prelim)

-JP Sep Industrial production (final)

-CH Oct Industrial production

-CH Oct Retail sales

-CH Oct Unemployment

-EZ Sep Industrial production

-US Nov Empire State manufacturing survey

-AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED ((AIA)) Quarterly update

-BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED ((BSL)) AGM

-ELDERS LIMITED ((ELD)) FY26 earnings report

-SPHERIA EMERGING COS. LIMITED ((SEC)) ex-div 1.10c (100%)

-WAM ALTERNATIVE ASSETS LIMITED ((WMA)) ex-div 3.00c (60%)

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures
Gold (oz)	3874.34	– 109.89	– 2.76%
Silver (oz)	49.98	– 1.75	– 3.38%
Copper (lb)	6.18	– 0.07	– 1.12%
Aluminium (lb)	1.46	+ 0.04	2.76%
Nickel (lb)	7.23	+ 0.03	0.36%
Zinc (lb)	1.72	+ 0.01	0.69%
West Texas Crude	88.95	+ 2.59	3.00%
Brent Crude	96.00	+ 3.49	3.77%
Iron Ore (t)	91.60	– 0.55	– 0.60%

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

Index	13 Nov 2026	Week To Date	Month To Date (Nov)	Quarter To Date (Oct-Dec)	Year To Date (2026)
S&P ASX 200 (ex-div)	9082.20	0.68%	1.95%	3.33%	4.22%

BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS
ALD	Ampol	Initiation of coverage with Buy	Citi
CDA	Codan	Upgrade to Buy from Neutral	UBS
FDC	FDC Consolidated	Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate	Morgans
FLT	Flight Centre Travel	Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight	Morgan Stanley
		Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy	Morgans
GNC	GrainCorp	Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral	Macquarie
MND	Monadelphous Group	Upgrade to Buy from Hold	Bell Potter
SLC	Superloop	Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral	Macquarie
VNT	Ventia Services	Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate	Ord Minnett

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

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