NINE ENTERTAINMENT CO. HOLDINGS LIMITED (NEC)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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27/08/2026

3

Neutral

$1.04

-0.48%

Post another look, UBS lifts the target price to $1.04 from 94c while retaining a Neutral rating.

The FY27-FY29 revenue forecasts are lowered by -4% due to expected softer free-to-air performance and macro headwinds, the analyst explains. Improved cost management is expected to support EBITDA outlook, forecast at an average of approximately 3% growth.

First read: Nine Entertainment's FY26 result was broadly in line with expectations, with revenue matching consensus and EBITDA beating by 3%, driven by better cost control, UBS points out.

Stan was the standout, with EBITDA up 34% y/y and 7% ahead of consensus, while ARPU rose 16% despite an 8% decline in subscribers.

Broadcast remained under pressure, with revenue down -9% and EBITDA down -21%, although Nine gained free-to-air market share in 2H26. Outdoor revenue disappointed, but QMS grew 10% against market growth of 6%, pointing to market share gains.

Nine expects another year of pro forma revenue and EBITDA growth in FY27, supported by continued Stan EBITDA growth, double-digit pro forma Outdoor EBITDA growth and cost discipline, despite 1Q TV revenue expected to decline -7%-8%.

Neutral. Target $1.04.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.

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07/05/2026

1

Upgrade to Buy from Overweight

$1.15

10.05%

Jarden upgrades Nine Entertainment to a Buy rating from Overweight and lowers the target price to $1.15 from $1.30.

The broker lifts FY26 earnings per share forecasts to 8.8c from 7.9c after pulling forward the earnings contribution of the recently completed QMS acquisition into the final quarter.

This near-term earnings boost is offset by a soft fourth-quarter television advertising outlook and rising fuel prices inflating publishing distribution costs.

Outer year earnings estimates are trimmed slightly, reducing to 9.4c from 9.5c in FY27, while the target price reduction primarily reflects a higher risk-free rate assumption and conservative publishing valuations.

The upgrade is driven by "compelling valuation support", with the report noting potential un-priced upside from future licensing agreements under the News Media Bargaining Code.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 6.60 cents and EPS of 9.40 cents.