In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 15-05-26

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This story features BRAMBLES LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BXB
The company is included in ASX20, ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

BRAMBLES LIMITED ((BXB)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden upgrades Brambles to an Overweight rating with a $25.15 price target following share price underperformance and resilient customer results.

Commentary suggests volume resilience in key regions like North America and a structured pricing environment provide support for achieving the FY26 constant currency EBIT growth guidance range.

Core earnings per share estimates have been revised downwards by -0.6% and -0.5% for FY26 and FY27 to reflect potential EBIT margin pressure and cost inflation.

Cost reductions anticipated to lift second half underlying EBIT by US$15m should help offset higher IPEP charges and near-term earnings exposure in EMEA.

Downside risks are viewed as largely protected by the current valuation, which incorporates updated discounted cash flow assumptions and caution regarding negative trading updates.

HMC CAPITAL LIMITED ((HMC)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden upgrades HMC Capital to an Overweight rating from Neutral and maintains a $3.10 target price following a positive update detailing plans to streamline the platform.

The broker notes key strategic moves include returning capital to HMC Capital Partners investors, generating $15m in cost savings from FY27, and divesting $1bn in US digital assets to refocus on the Australian market.

Management reaffirmed operating earnings per share guidance above 40.0c, supported by organic growth in the private credit platform featuring $1bn in advanced documentation.

Reflecting the capital unwind largely offset by cost savings, the report lowers earnings per share forecasts to 30.1c from 31.2c in FY27, and to 33.1c from 33.8c in FY28, while FY26 estimates remain steady at 34.6c.

Strong valuation support and potential near-term catalysts, such as the resolution of issues at HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT ((HCW)), underpin the ongoing positive view.

INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED ((ING)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden upgrades Inghams Group to an Overweight rating from Neutral and raises the $2.70 target price from $2.50 following a positive strategy day.

The report highlights increased forecasts driven by improving 2HYTD trading and contract wins, despite a temporary headwind from Middle East fuel costs.

Management reaffirmed FY26 EBIT guidance of $180m to $200m and identified $130m in gross productivity opportunities through FY31, the broker reports.

Earnings per share forecasts have been revised upward to 12.3c from 12.1c for FY26 and to 18.7c from 18.0c for FY27.

Dividend estimates for the same periods are projected at 8.7c and 13.2c.

Downgrade

AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED ((AZJ)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden downgrades Aurizon Holdings to a Neutral rating from Overweight and raises the target price to $4.15 from $3.90 following a trading update highlighting softer coal volumes and fuel cost headwinds.

The broker notes management maintained FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance of $1,680m to $1,750m, expecting earnings to land closer to the midpoint of $1,715m.

A lag in recovering diesel costs within the Bulk and Containerised Freight segments creates a -$10m drag on fourth-quarter earnings, compounding weaker Above Rail coal volumes hampered by weather and customer impacts.

To reflect these pressures alongside revised coal volume growth assumptions of 1.2% for FY26, the report cuts earnings per share forecasts to 24.6c from 25.0c in FY26, and to 28.2c from 28.7c in FY27.

Despite the earnings reductions, the valuation increases due to a re-rating of offshore peer multiples and adjustments to the underlying discount rate model.

CSL LIMITED ((CSL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden and Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden downgrades CSL to a Neutral rating from Overweight and lowers its target price to $191.00 from $244.00 following an unexpected severe downgrade to FY26 profit guidance.

Management reduced constant currency net profit expectations to roughly US$3.1bn, reflecting “unrealistic” prior ambitions for key products including Ig and Albumin, the broker comments.

Misjudged pricing across the product suite is seen impacting both revenue and gross margins, setting up a multi-year turnaround story as competition increases and reimbursement cuts persist, according to the report.

While underlying value remains within the business, near-term catalysts for upside are viewed by the broker as notably absent.

Net profit forecasts have been cut by -8.9%, -16.0%, and -20.8% across the next three years, establishing earnings per share estimates of US580.2c in FY26, US584.6c in FY27, and US610.9c in FY28.

Canaccord Genuity downgrades CSL to a Hold rating from Buy with a $106.31 target price following a significant downgrade to FY26 guidance.

The broker notes lower earnings expectations reflect a structural reset in immunoglobulin and albumin sales, which is offsetting ongoing volume growth.

The update includes a substantial impairment charge related to Vifor Pharmaceuticals alongside reductions in research and development spending.

Future valuation remains pressured by competitive erosion and the loss of FDA approval for Tavneos, with forecasts revised lower across the outer years, according to the report.

IMDEX LIMITED ((IMD)) Downgrade to Sell from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden downgrades Imdex to a Sell rating from Underweight and maintains a $3.60 target price following a third-quarter trading update.

The company reported unaudited revenue of $123m for the period, representing 29% constant currency growth, yet the broker notes quarter-on-quarter revenue momentum appears to be flattening.

Commentary states consensus estimates imply a steep hurdle for the final quarter requiring 26% year-on-year revenue growth, leaving no room for execution missteps given the stock trades on an extreme forward price-earnings multiple of 31x.

Higher anticipated finance costs of -$12m to -$14m prompt the report to lower earnings per share forecasts to 10.2c from 10.3c in FY26, and to 11.4c from 11.5c in FY27.

While the underlying business is well managed within a robust industry environment, the broker finds extreme valuation multiples relative to historical averages offer little near-term support for the share price.

MACH7 TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED ((M7T)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity downgrades Mach7 Technologies to a Hold rating from Buy and lowers the target price to $0.27 from $0.80.

The broker notes the company has entered a strategic reset following recent management transitions, with visibility into the path toward cash flow breakeven remaining limited.

Revenue forecasts have been revised down by -23% to -28% for FY26-FY28 to reflect delayed conversion of large capital deals and a headwind from AUD:USD exchange rate movements.

Operating cash flow is projected to remain a negative outflow until FY29, while cost-reduction measures implemented by the new leadership may exacerbate challenges in sales execution and service delivery.

Normalised EBITDA estimates have been materially impaired due to a weaker revenue mix and a flat near-term growth trajectory, according to the report.

SPARK NEW ZEALAND LIMITED ((SPK)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden downgrades Spark New Zealand to a Neutral rating with a NZ$2.27 price target following a review of earnings momentum through FY26.

Normalised earnings per share forecasts have been reduced by -11.4c for FY26 and -13.3c for FY27 due to subdued cloud margins and a step down in fixed wireless pricing.

Dividends per share are projected at NZ16.0c across the next two financial years, reflecting a reset that sits back in line with 2013 levels.

Stabilising operating earnings will likely require significant cost-out measures and a potential divestment of non-core IT businesses to reduce capital intensity, the broker suggests.

Structural connectivity factors and higher risk-free rates pose ongoing downside risks, while management execution on business simplification remains a potential positive catalyst, the report concludes.

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

More Highlights

A4N    ALPHA HPA LIMITED

Aluminium, Bauxite & Alumina – Overnight Price: $0.68

Canaccord Genuity rates ((A4N)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity maintains a Speculative Buy rating for Alpha HPA with an unchanged $1.20 target price following a site visit demonstrating strong progress on Stage 2 construction at the Gladstone facility.

The broker notes the flexible plant design allows the production of high-value gamma phase alumina products tailored for the rapidly growing semiconductor and lithium-ion battery markets.

Recent quarterly sales achieved pricing comfortably above US$28 per kilogram, easily exceeding the assumed US$24 to US$25 per kilogram base case model.

With $212m in cash on hand, the business remains well-funded to cover near-term capital expenditure before drawing down debt facilities ahead of expected commissioning in late FY27.

Earnings estimates remain unchanged reflecting confidence in the execution strategy and an expanding sales pipeline.

This report was published on May 8, 2026.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $0.52
If A4N meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APE    EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $23.37

Canaccord Genuity rates ((APE)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity maintains a Buy rating for Eagers Automotive with a lowered $30.50 target price following a revision to the CanadaOne Auto acquisition closing date.

The broker notes earnings are likely to be more heavily skewed to the second half than usual as a result of recent dealership acquisitions in Canada and Australia.

Demand for battery electric vehicles has lifted significantly due to fuel price spikes, a segment where the company holds a materially higher market share of 35% versus 10% for traditional internal combustion engines, according to the report.

Earnings per share forecasts have been revised down by -6.9% in FY26, -5.4% in FY27, and -3.3% in FY28 to account for higher interest rate assumptions and shifted currency forecasts.

The broker expects overall market share to continue growing in Australia through further acquisitions and structural improvements in dealership operations.

This report was published on May 13, 2026.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $23.37 Difference: $7.13
If APE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.93, suggesting upside of 28.0%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.7, implying annual growth of 37.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 86.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY27:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 136.7, implying annual growth of 14.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 93.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BFG    BELL FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $1.39

Research as a Service (RaaS) rates ((BFG)) as No Rating (-1) –

Bell Financial’s four-month year-to-date April profit of $16.3m was broadly in line with Research as a Service (RaaS) $17.4m first half FY26 estimate, representing 197% growth on the prior year.

Platform earnings grew as expected (up 15%), while Markets materially outperformed, swinging to a $7.4m profit from a -$2.3m loss, a $9.7m swing, the analyst highlights.

The broker’s valuation increases to $2.38 from $2.33, driven by higher peer multiples, with Markets valued on through-the-cycle earnings and Platforms on peer metrics.

Research as a Service doesn’t assign a rating. Investors can draw conclusions from valuations and commentary.

This report was published on May 11, 2026.

Target price is $2.38 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.99
If BFG meets the Research as a Service (RaaS) target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

D3E    D3 ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $0.40

Research as a Service (RaaS) rates ((D3E)) as No Rating (-1) –

Research as a Service (RaaS) assesses D3 Energy continues to represent a compelling investment case, increasingly so given the current energy supply crisis.

The association of natural gas with helium concentrations provides a means to differentiate the company from its listed upstream peers.

As the company continues to work through its applications to achieve commercial resolution and reach FID by the end of 2026, corporate interest, either through merger or partnering activity, is not unrealistic in the analyst’s view.

Given the dilution after a successful capital raising, the valuation range is reset to $1.31-$2.54 per share, with a midpoint of $2.05.

Research as a Service (RaaS) research standard doesn’t carry any targets, ratings or recommendations. Investors can draw conclusions from valuations and commentary.

This report was published on May 6, 2026.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $1.655
If D3E meets the Research as a Service (RaaS) target it will return approximately 419% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Research as a Service (RaaS) forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 22.70.

Forecast for FY27:

Research as a Service (RaaS) forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 25.32.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DUG    DUG TECHNOLOGY LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $2.23

Shaw and Partners rates ((DUG)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners reiterates a Buy rating for Dug Technology with an unchanged $3.00 target price following an update at the TechRise Conference.

The broker notes trading through FY26 appears well on track against consensus expectations of US$85m, supported by accelerating software and high-performance computing revenue.

Services momentum is building steadily in Brazil and the Middle East, while the repeatable Petronas contract model validates technology leadership.

Technology-led differentiation is expected to drive structurally higher margins as adoption of the Multi-Parameter Full Waveform Inversion platform expands.

Underlying earnings per share forecasts are estimated at US5.0c in FY26, US9.2c in FY27, and US8.3c in FY28, with no dividends projected.

This report was published on May 13, 2026.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $0.77
If DUG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.60.

Forecast for FY27:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.24.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYL    SYMAL GROUP LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $2.60

Jarden rates ((SYL)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden maintains a Buy rating for Symal Group with an increased $3.05 price target following a “resilient” FY26 EBITDA guidance update.

The revised guidance midpoint has lifted to $123m with the report concluding disciplined project execution helps mitigate rising diesel costs and materials inflation.

Core earnings per share forecasts for FY26 and FY27 have been reduced by -2.4% and -2.0% to reflect higher lease costs and conservative depreciation estimates.

Recent acquisitions in South East Queensland are now incorporated into projections, with the bulk of earnings contribution expected in FY27.

Underlying performance remains subject to project execution and the timing of contract commencements. Commentary suggests this represents potential risks to the earnings trajectory.

This report was published on May 12, 2026.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.45
If SYL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 20.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.94.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 23.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.06.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TCG    TURACO GOLD LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.56

Canaccord Genuity rates ((TCG)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity maintains a Speculative Buy rating for Turaco Gold and raises the target price to $1.75 from $1.65 ahead of the anticipated release of a pre-feasibility study for the Afema Gold Project.

Internal bottom-up modelling assesses a potential 2.4Moz mine inventory spread across several large open pits, underpinning an estimated 11-year mine life averaging 201kozpa.

Processing is assumed to utilise a 6Mtpa hybrid plant, combining a conventional carbon-in-leach circuit for free-milling base feed with an additional flotation circuit for sulphide ore, requiring an estimated -US$500m in total pre-production capital.

Access to cheap local hydropower is expected to keep processing costs competitive despite the fine grinding requirements, driving an estimated all-in sustaining cost of -US$1,650/oz.

Ownership consolidation is anticipated over the coming 12 months via a scrip deal to acquire the remaining 20% joint venture interest, clearing the path for the asset to become one of the largest new West African gold producers, the report highlights.

This report was published on May 8, 2026.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $1.19
If TCG meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 212% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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