AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED (AZJ)
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AZJ

AZJ - AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Transportation & Logistics
Year End: June
GICS Industry Group : Transportation
Debt/EBITDA: 3.68
Index: ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Aurizon Holdings is Australia's largest freight rail transport company. Formerly a Queensland Government-owned company, it was privatised and floated on the ASX in 2010.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$3.21

18 Sep
2025

-0.010

OPEN

$3.22

-0.31%

HIGH

$3.24

4,875,178

LOW

$3.18

TARGET
$3.185 -0.8% downside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
ACE . AIZ . AQZ . AVD . BXB . CLX . ERD . KLS . KSC . LAU . NTD . QAN . QUB . SPZ . SST . THL . WTC .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
AZJ: 1
Title FY24
Actual		 FY25
Actual		 FY26
Forecast		 FY27
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 16.9 24.3 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 15.7 19.5 xxx
EPS Growth xxx - 23.2% 43.3% xxx
DPS Growth xxx - 7.6% 24.2% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 13.2 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 6.1% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx 92.7% 80.3% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 4.29%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 4.89

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 26/08 - ex-div 7.30c (franking 60%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 202020212022202320242025
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx16.9
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.7
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,869.0 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx233.4
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,118.0 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7.83 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 202020212022202320242025
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7.11 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3.54 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2.55 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7.11 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7.97 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx138.0 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 202020212022202320242025
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx997 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4,504 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx5,501 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx57 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx64 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.30

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 202020212022202320242025
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx696.0 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx17.99 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,017 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx91 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx107 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

-0.3

No. Of Recommendations

6
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Morgan Stanley

xx/xx/xxxx

5

xxxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Morgans

xx/xx/xxxx

4

xxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xxxx xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Citi

19/08/2025

3

Neutral

$3.45

7.48%

Target raised to $3.45 on further inspection of FY25 results, Citi lowers its EPS forecasts by -8.9% for FY26 and -6.2% for FY27.

The key development for Aurizon is the potential sale of a minority stake in its network. To generate a re-rating of the stock, given the poor to cautious outlook, the analyst estimates a Network sale multiple of over 1.2 times is needed to secure upside.

Neutral rating retained.

***

Today, Aurizon Holdings reported FY25 earnings (EBITDA) of $1,576m, in line with Citi’s expectations and guidance, though profit was slightly below due to higher depreciation and interest.

In first impressions, the broker notes Coal earnings of $527m were broadly in line, while Network earnings of $956m were around 2% ahead on cost control.

Bulk earnings missed expectation at $169m, around -4% below consensus, dragged by weaker grain and iron ore volumes and higher bad debts, explains the analyst.

FY26 guidance of $1,680-$1,750m is largely in line with consensus of $1,712m, supported by $10m in cost savings. Management expects Coal earnings will improve on stronger volumes.

Network ownership review remains underway, with a change in revenue recognition expected to smooth earnings and improve the asset’s appeal, while a $150m buyback was announced.

The broker highlights the Bulk division remains a concern, with the segment missing again despite a sequential 9% volume recovery in the fourth quarter.

FORECAST
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 18.90 cents and EPS of 23.60 cents.
Citi forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 21.10 cents and EPS of 26.40 cents.

UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

1

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Jarden

20/08/2025

3

Neutral

$3.15

-1.87%

Aurizon Holdings reported FY25 core profit of $348m, which Jarden notes was -4% below consensus.

FY26 guidance implies reliance on Above Rail businesses, which have been volatile, hence, the broker lowers its FY26 core EPS forecast by -4% and across FY27-FY28 by -2%.

A Network ownership review is underway, note the analysts, with valuation, deal structure and potential after-tax proceeds key factors.

Past analysis suggested full monetisation could have resulted in -$80-120m of additional costs, and Jarden sees similar risks this time.

Losses in Containerised Freight are also a concern, with FY25 losses estimated at -$74m versus -$42m in FY24, despite -$300m already spent of a $425m investment, highlights the broker.

Jarden forecasts losses to narrow to around -$35m in FY26-FY27, but has low confidence given limited disclosure.

The target price rises to $3.15 from $3.10. Neutral rating maintained.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 19.60 cents and EPS of 24.50 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 22.80 cents and EPS of 28.50 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

AZJ STOCK CHART

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