CSL LIMITED (CSL)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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20/08/2025

1

Buy

$293.83

30.01%

Morgans notes CSL delivered FY25 results broadly in line, with profit (NPATA) of US$3.22bn up 11% and revenue of US$15.56bn up 5%.

Margins expanded, with gross margin up 20bps to 54.3% and operating margin up 10bps to 29.8%, while operating cash flow rose 29% to US$3.56bn, supporting a 12% lift in the dividend.

The broker highlights Behring’s softer performance due to Medicare Part D reform in the US and tender timing, though underlying demand remains robust.

Restructuring was the key strategic update, suggest the analysts, with management targeting US$500-550m in pre-tax savings by 2028, a planned Seqirus demerger, and a US$500m buyback starting in FY26.

Morgans sees these initiatives as a positive move simplifying the portfolio, sharpening operational focus, and supporting margin expansion.

Vifor grew 8% with margin improvement, while Seqirus fell -9% on weak immunisation rates but is showing signs of stabilisation, suggests the broker.

Although management withdrew its FY27-28 margin timeline, gross margin gains and lower cost/litre initiatives support further improvement, in the analysts' view.

Morgans makes modest forecast earnings downgrades of up to -2.2% for FY26-27. The target price falls to $293.83 from $303.70 and the broker retains a Buy rating.

FORECAST
Morgans forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 498.45 cents and EPS of 1141.18 cents.
Morgans forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 552.63 cents and EPS of 1319.35 cents.

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21/08/2025

2

Overweight

$298.13

31.92%

Following FY25 results by CSL, Jarden cuts its profit (NPATA) forecasts by -1% for FY26, -3.7% for FY27 and -6.7% for FY28, reducing its target price to $298.13 from $313.50.

An Overweight rating is maintained, with the analysts viewing the share price fall post results as an overreaction.

Management reported FY25 profit at the top end of guidance and issued FY26 profit guidance of US$3.45-3.55bn, broadly in line with consensus.

Jarden notes this guidance masks weakness in the Behring business, with tender losses in the UK and Mexico weighing on immunoglobulin (IG) growth, and the group abandoning its gross margin recovery timeline.

The broker highlights IG revenue growth slowed to 7% in FY25, with second-half growth turning negative, impacted by Medicare Part D and lost tenders.

While CSL avoided low-margin contracts, the analysts see near-term growth reduced by -300-400bps, though expects Hizentra (a subcutaneous immunoglobulin treatment) to grow double digits and IG overall at mid-to high-single digits.

Management announced a -US$500-550m cost-out program, though part of this will be reinvested, and flagged an $750m buyback.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 364.55 cents and EPS of 842.72 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 506.04 cents and EPS of 1125.23 cents.