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This story features NEXGEN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
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The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
NexGen Energy delivered an upbeat quarterly as Rook 1 advances, while Lotus shorts retreated and the U308 spot price shows signs of breaking higher.
- NexGen continues to ink off-take agreements as Rook 1 moves to construction phase
- U308 spot price could be about to break out of its trading range
- Lotus no longer the shorter's most favoured
By Danielle Ecuyer
NextGen continues to progress the quality Rook 1 asset
NexGen Energy’s ((NXG)) 2Q2026 update highlighted good progress over the period, UBS commented. Construction is tracking ahead of the much anticipated Sept 1st detailed construction webinar.
Of note, management signed a new 1.3mlb US utility offtake agreement, lifting contracted volumes to 11.3mlbs. This strategy enables NexGen to capitalise on higher future U308 prices, with pricing unfixed for the balance of 96% of reserves available for sale.
A further 20mlbs of additional contracts are being discussed and are likely to result in more offtake agreements in the second half.
Regarding financing, liquidity stood at circa CA$970m at the end of the quarter, with management continuing to consider project debt, asset level financings and uranium prepayments, as well as strategic investments, as part of the project funding mix.
The Rook 1 groundbreaking ceremony is slated for August 13 with the release of the PCE drill results. The Sept 1 Investor Day and construction webinar is anticipated to provide more in-depth updates on the project schedule, underground development plan, mill construction and other “key execution milestones”.
UBS reiterates its Buy rating with a slightly lower target price of $18.50 from $19.50 due to more earnings dilutive forecast assumptions, and using a US$100/lb real U308 price for the Net Asset Value (NAV) calculation.
Morgans notes development capex rose to CA$30.7m in 2Q from CA$23.9m in 1Q, with Rook 1 moving into construction.
Management reiterated it has not found any reasons for a sizeable revision to the estimated capex cost, announced in August 2024, of CA$2.2bn, albeit the updated cost outlook will be proffered on Sept 1st at the Investor Day.
After considering more conservative capital and development scheduling assumptions, Morgans lowers its price target to $15.60 from $20.80. The stock’s rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy, resulting from the change in target.
Shaw highlights Rook 1 will lift new U308 supply by up to 30Mlb when NexGen ramps to full production, which represents around 20% of global primary supply.
The construction of the project is anticipated to take around four years and may attract some interest from potential investors. Shaw ponders potential suitors as Cameco, BHP Group ((BHP)) and Rio Tinto ((RIO)) due to the quality of the asset.
The broker continues to see the uranium market as being at the beginning of a “super-cycle”, having upgraded its U308 price forecast to US$200/lb on February 18, 2026.
NexGen remains one of preferred exposures to the cycle. Buy rating retained with a $22.90 target price.
Drawing valuation comparisons to Cameco, Shaw explains Cameco recently moved to an all-time stock price high of above CA$180 per share. At current levels around CA$154 per share, the stock is trading on 34x EV/EBITDA on 1H25 earnings.
The higher valuation ascribed is considered as warranted given the quality of the asset base.
Given the quality of the Rook 1 project, which Shaw views as “exceptional”, if NexGen were to trade around 10x EBITDA once production has commenced, the share price would equate to around $35.
Yesterday’s closing share price was $14.60.
Kazatomprom delivers a 2Q26 production beat
Kazatomprom announced its 2Q2026 operating results, with Canaccord Genuity pointing out production was around 4%-5% above expectations and group sales were a circa 3% beat on forecasts.
Production volume for 1H2026 rose 9% and 10% for the group and on an attributable basis, respectively.
Management reiterated 2026 outlook for production guidance of 27,500tU-29,000tU. Canaccord is forecasting 27,500tU.
More financial metrics are expected when the interim results are announced on August 21. Additional changes to the outlook for revenue, cash costs, AISC and capex guidance are anticipated.
Canaccord remains Buy rated with a US$95 target price.
Is the U308 spot price starting to break out to the upside?
Industry consultants TradeTech suggests the market is signaling the U308 spot market might be moving out of the narrow price band it has traded in over the last few months.
The spot U308 price rose US$0.50/lb to US$86.75/lb.
Four transactions were noted for 400klbs, including 100klbs last Monday at US$85.75/lb for delivery at ConverDyn’s Metropolis facility in the US.
On Thursday, the consultants point out bids rose to US$86.25/lb and one buyer picked up 100klbs of U308 at that level for delivery at Cameco’s Port Hope facility in Canada.
Two transactions were concluded last Friday for 100klbs at ConverDyn at US$86.50/lb and another 100klbs at US$87.01/lb for delivery at Cameco on November 1.
The TradeTech Mid-term U308 price indicator stood at US$88/lb and the Long-Term price indicator at US$97/lb, with no new transactions and no new demand observed in the term U308 market.
Short interests
The latest short interests as reported by ASIC as per August 4 sees a decrease in positions for Lotus Resources ((LOT)) by a notable -9.66%.
The stock has slipped to the fifth most shorted on the ASX from second, at 12.41%. Droneshield ((DRO)) is the new most heavily shorted stock on the ASX.
Boss Energy ((BOE)) is in sixth position at 12.05% shorted, up from 11.84%, and Paladin Energy ((PDN)) in tenth position at 11.62% from 11.40%.
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 07/08/2026 | 0.0500 |  – 2.13% | $0.16 | $0.05 | |||
| AEE | 07/08/2026 | 0.1000 | – 8.70% | $0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AEU | 07/08/2026 | 0.4400 |  2.33% | $0.75 | $0.22 | |||
| AGE | 07/08/2026 | 0.0500 | -16.98% | $0.06 | $0.02 | $0.080 | 60.0% | |
| AKN | 07/08/2026 | 0.0200 | -14.29% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 07/08/2026 | 0.0500 | 0.00% | $0.12 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 07/08/2026 | 0.4800 | – 4.95% | $0.70 | $0.37 | |||
| BMN | 07/08/2026 | 3.5300 | 4.95% | $5.25 | $2.23 | $4.733 | 34.1% | |
| BOE | 07/08/2026 | 1.4100 | 9.43% | $2.20 | $1.00 | 35.1 | $1.557 | 10.4% |
| BSN | 07/08/2026 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.08 | $0.02 | |||
| C29 | 07/08/2026 | 0.0100 | 8.33% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 07/08/2026 | 0.2900 | 16.33% | $0.39 | $0.10 | $0.300 | 3.4% | |
| CXU | 07/08/2026 | 0.0900 | – 7.29% | $0.17 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 07/08/2026 | 0.2400 | – 2.08% | $0.33 | $0.08 | $0.410 | 70.8% | |
| DYL | 07/08/2026 | 1.4400 | 4.51% | $2.97 | $1.22 | -58.6 | $2.040 | 41.7% |
| EL8 | 07/08/2026 | 0.2500 | 11.11% | $0.50 | $0.21 | |||
| HAR | 07/08/2026 | 0.0800 | 8.11% | $0.25 | $0.07 | |||
| I88 | 07/08/2026 | 0.1100 | 20.00% | $0.76 | $0.10 | |||
| KOB | 07/08/2026 | 0.0300 | – 8.33% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 07/08/2026 | 0.6000 | 6.60% | $0.93 | $0.50 | |||
| LOT | 07/08/2026 | 0.2400 | – 2.13% | $3.20 | $0.22 | $1.443 | 501.4% | |
| MEU | 07/08/2026 | 0.1000 | 17.07% | $0.19 | $0.04 | |||
| NXG | 07/08/2026 | 14.6100 | 10.77% | $20.47 | $9.98 | -130.9 | $17.800 | 21.8% |
| ORP | 07/08/2026 | 0.1100 | – 4.55% | $0.11 | $0.03 | |||
| PDN | 07/08/2026 | 10.4500 | 7.86% | $15.10 | $6.26 | -691.4 | $12.179 | 16.5% |
| PEN | 07/08/2026 | 0.2900 | 1.85% | $1.08 | $0.23 | |||
| SLX | 07/08/2026 | 5.0700 | 2.75% | $10.85 | $3.45 | |||
| WCN | 07/08/2026 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 |
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