KELSIAN GROUP LIMITED (KLS)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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27/08/2026

1

Buy

$5.75

30.98%

Post another look, UBS raises the target to $5.75 highlighting possibly high expectations going into the result led to the -5% fall in the share price despite the FY26 beat.

The analyst believes earnings momentum remains positive for the company with the balance sheet able to underpin ongoing organic and non-organic growth in the US.

Buy rating retained with the stock ascribed a circa 11.1x PER and trading at around a -26% discount to its historical valuation.

First read: Kelsian Group's FY26 result was ahead of UBS' expectations, with EBITDA beating consensus by 4% and NPATA by 15%, driven by a stronger-than-expected 2H performance from International Bus, partly offset by higher corporate costs.

Operating cash flow was 9% ahead of expectations, while lower capex helped net debt fall to $711m and leverage improve to 2.5x from 2.7x at 1H26.

FY27 underlying EBITDA guidance of $320–$335m implies around 2% upside to consensus at the midpoint.

UBS highlights further growth opportunities in the US and UK, including potential contracts covering more than 2,000 UK buses over the next 12 months.

Kelsian has removed SeaLink Rottnest Island from the Tourism divestment, while the remaining approximately $146m of asset sales are expected to complete in 1H27.

Buy rated. Target $5.75.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents.

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30/08/2026

2

Overweight

$4.80

9.34%

Jarden retains an Overweight rating for Kelsian Group with its target price increased to $4.80 from $4.70 following a strong 2H26 result featuring NPATA 18% ahead of consensus.

The earnings beat was driven by the phasing of costs, LNG contract ramp-up, and tax benefits.

Operational performance remained robust with strong growth across AU Bus and AAAHI, while M&T weakness was primarily isolated to assets slated for sale.

The analyst notes the company continues reducing gearing and remains on track to sell the Tourism division, keeping the stock undervalued.

Earnings models are updated to reflect the mid-point of FY27 EBITDA guidance implying $102m NPATA, resulting in a -2% cut to FY27 EPS and a -1% reduction for FY28.