AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED (AIZ)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

15/05/2026

5

Underperform

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Air New Zealand has guided to an FY26 profit before tax loss of -NZ$340m to -NZ$390m after a NZ$240m increase in fuel costs versus pre-crisis assumptions.

Macquarie notes management delivered around NZ$70m in mitigations during 2H26 through revenue initiatives and capacity reductions, while identifying an initial NZ$100m in annualised cost savings from FY27 as part of a broader strategy review.

The analyst points to weaker booking momentum following the fuel crisis, particularly across outbound markets.

The balance sheet remains supported by NZ$1.3bn in liquidity alongside plans for a US$400m revolving credit facility and NZ$4bn in unencumbered aircraft assets.

EPS forecasts are cut by -36% for FY26 and -46% for FY27, while the broker retains an Underperform rating and lowers the target price to NZ$0.38 from NZ$0.42.

FORECAST
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -6.72 cents.
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -1.05 cents.

16/03/2026

5

Sell

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Air New Zealand has suspended its 2H26 earnings guidance following a sharp surge in jet fuel prices linked to the escalation of conflict in the Middle East.

The airline had previously guided to a 2H26 profit belore tax loss broadly in line with or modestly below the 1H26 loss of -NZ$59m, based on an assumed jet fuel price of US$85/bbl, but jet fuel prices have recently averaged about US$175/bbl.

While the airline has hedged around 83% of estimated 2H26 fuel requirements, Jarden highlights the hedges only cover the Brent crude component, leaving exposure to the jet fuel crack spread, which has spiked sharply.

Daily fuel costs may have doubled to around -NZ$8-9m, compounding existing pressures from engine issues, rising competition, cost inflation and a stretched balance sheet. Sell rating and NZ$0.47 target price retained.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -4.62 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -2.01 cents.