ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED (AQZ)
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AQZ - ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Transportation & Logistics

Year End: June

GICS Industry Group : Transportation

Debt/EBITDA: 2.22

Index: ALL-ORDS

LAST PRICE	CHANGE +/-	CHANGE %	VOLUME
$2.69 28 Apr 2025	0.090 OPEN $2.61	3.46% HIGH $2.71	42,356 LOW $2.61

TARGET

$3.90

45.0% upside

Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%

OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
ACE . AIZ . AVD . AZJ . BXB . CLX . ERD . KLS . KSC . LAU . NTD . QAN . QUB . SLH . SPZ . SST . THL . WTC . Z2U .

FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS

Title	FY23 Actual	FY24 Actual	FY25 Forecast	FY26 Forecast
EPS (cps)	xxx	37.6	40.4	xxx
DPS (cps)	xxx	0.0	0.0	xxx
EPS Growth	xxx	65.8%	7.3%	xxx
DPS Growth	xxx	N/A	N/A	xxx
PE Ratio	xxx	N/A	6.2	xxx
Dividend Yield	xxx	N/A	0.0%	xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%)	xxx	N/A	N/A	xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 0.00%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 16/03 - ex-div 7.3c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD

Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved

Title	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
EPS Basic	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	37.6
DPS All	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	0.0
Sales/Revenue	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	633.9 M
Book Value Per Share	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	255.5
Net Operating Cash Flow	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	24.7 M
Net Profit Margin	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	9.54 %

EPS Basic

Negative
Growth
Slowing

DPS All

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Sales/Revenue

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Book Value Per Share

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Net Operating Cash Flow

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Net Profit Margin

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Title	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Return on Capital Employed	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	15.90 %
Return on Invested Capital	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	8.82 %
Return on Assets	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	6.80 %
Return on Equity	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	15.90 %
Return on Total Capital	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	13.28 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	-90.4 M

Return on Capital Employed

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Return on Invested Capital

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Return on Assets

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Return on Equity

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Return on Total Capital

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Title	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Short-Term Debt	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	10 M
Long Term Debt	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	357 M
Total Debt	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	367 M
Goodwill - Gross	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	-
Cash & Equivalents - Generic	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	31 M
Price To Book Value	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	1.21

Short-Term Debt

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Long Term Debt

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Total Debt

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Price To Book Value

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Title	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Capex	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	115.1 M
Capex % of Sales	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	18.16 %
Cost of Goods Sold	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	518 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	24 M
Research & Development	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	-
Investments - Total	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	0 M

Capex

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Capex % of Sales

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Cost of Goods Sold

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Research & Development

Investments - Total

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Negative

Growth

Slowing

EXPERT VIEWS
EXTRA COVERAGE

EXPERT VIEWS

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Sentiment Indicator

1.0

No. Of Recommendations

BROKER	DATE	RATING	RECOMMENDATION	TARGET PRICE	% TO REACH TARGET	COMMENTARY
Ord Minnett	xx/xx/xxxx	1	xxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial
Morgans	14/02/2025	1	Add	$4.10	52.42%	With the ongoing expansion of the E190 fleet, Morgans notes Alliance Aviation Services reported a "solid" 1H25 earnings result, with revenue advancing 11.3% and net profit after tax rising 9.9%, exceeding the analyst's forecast of 7.3% growth. Flight hours rose 14%, compared to a forecast decline of -2.7%, due to a lift in wet lease flight hours, the broker explains. Due to a significant rise in depreciation/amortisation and net interest costs over FY26/FY27 as the company takes delivery of 13 E190 aircraft in the next year, Morgans lowers net profit before tax estimates by -6.5% for FY26 and -13.6% for FY27. The broker's FY25 earnings forecast slips by -1.7%. No change to the target price of $4.10 and Add rating. The company is viewed by Morgans as post peak leverage and capex, a positive. FORECAST Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents. Morgans forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.

BROKER

DATE

RATING

RECOMMENDATION

TARGET PRICE

% TO REACH TARGET

COMMENTARY

Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial

Morgans

14/02/2025

Add

$4.10

52.42%

With the ongoing expansion of the E190 fleet, Morgans notes Alliance Aviation Services reported a "solid" 1H25 earnings result, with revenue advancing 11.3% and net profit after tax rising 9.9%, exceeding the analyst's forecast of 7.3% growth.

Flight hours rose 14%, compared to a forecast decline of -2.7%, due to a lift in wet lease flight hours, the broker explains.

Due to a significant rise in depreciation/amortisation and net interest costs over FY26/FY27 as the company takes delivery of 13 E190 aircraft in the next year, Morgans lowers net profit before tax estimates by -6.5% for FY26 and -13.6% for FY27.

The broker's FY25 earnings forecast slips by -1.7%.

No change to the target price of $4.10 and Add rating. The company is viewed by Morgans as post peak leverage and capex, a positive.

FORECAST
Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
Morgans forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.

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EXTRA COVERAGE

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No. Of Recommendations

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER	DATE	RATING	RECOMMENDATION	TARGET PRICE	% TO REACH TARGET	COMMENTARY
Wilsons	17/02/2025	1	Overweight	$3.93	46.10%	Alliance Aviation Services delivered a mixed 1H25 result with continued impressive earnings growth but adjusted operating cash conversion remained below historic norms, Wilsons highlights. The broker downgraded flight hours on a reduction in the average operating fleet by three in FY26 and six in FY27, reflecting potential efforts to optimise the fleet. The analyst raised EBITDA forecasts, driven by a strong recent run rate in EBITDA per aircraft, partially offset by higher labour costs and a lower average operating fleet. Target price cut to $3.93 from $4.32. Overweight maintained. FORECAST Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents. Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.80 cents and EPS of 42.40 cents.

BROKER

DATE

RATING

RECOMMENDATION

TARGET PRICE

% TO REACH TARGET

COMMENTARY

Wilsons

17/02/2025

Overweight

$3.93

46.10%

Alliance Aviation Services delivered a mixed 1H25 result with continued impressive earnings growth but adjusted operating cash conversion remained below historic norms, Wilsons highlights.

The broker downgraded flight hours on a reduction in the average operating fleet by three in FY26 and six in FY27, reflecting potential efforts to optimise the fleet.

The analyst raised EBITDA forecasts, driven by a strong recent run rate in EBITDA per aircraft, partially offset by higher labour costs and a lower average operating fleet.

Target price cut to $3.93 from $4.32. Overweight maintained.

FORECAST
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.80 cents and EPS of 42.40 cents.

Access Extra Coverage Research History >

AQZ STOCK CHART

FNArena News on AQZ

1	Australian Broker Call Extra Edition – Feb 17, 2025 Feb 17 2025 - Daily Market Reports

2	FNArena Corporate Results Monitor – 14-02-2025 Feb 14 2025 - Australia

3	Australian Broker Call Extra Edition – Jan 22, 2025 Jan 22 2025 - Daily Market Reports

4	Rudi’s View: Best Buys & Convictions For 2025 Jan 16 2025 - Rudi's View

5	Rudi’s View: Final Best Buys & Conviction Ideas Dec 23 2024 - Rudi's View

Latest Transportation & Logistics News

1	Alliance Aviation Cleared For Dividend Takeoff Dec 16 2024 - Small Caps

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3	Brambles Leverages Deep Data Analysis Sep 18 2024 - Australia

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5	Treasure Chest: Qantas Airways Jul 15 2024 - Treasure Chest

6	In Brief: Airlines, Pathology & Seek Jul 12 2024 - Weekly Reports

7	Brambles’ Divisive March Quarter Apr 24 2024 - Australia

8	Treasure Chest: Silk Logistics Sep 28 2023 - Treasure Chest

9	Lindsay Australia: Transported To Growth Sep 13 2023 - Small Caps

10	Qantas Flying High, But Sustainability In Question May 24 2023 - Australia

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :	0.00
Estimated Dividend Growth (Average Of Past Three Years)	%
Amount Invested	$
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ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED (AQZ)
Share Price Analysis and Chart