Daily Market Reports | 9:08 AM
This story features ARENA REIT, and other companies.
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The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Buying in chip stocks boosted Nasdaq though US market sentiment shifted largely to risk-off as investors await the much anticipated mid-term election results, and whether the prognosticated Blue Wave will take Congress or the House only.
One important unknown is how the US administration might respond to a potentially unfavourable outcome.
On Tuesday, the Australian market rallied off its intra-day low and finished in the black after the RBA announced its broadly expected 25bps rate hike.
ASX200 futures are pointing to a weaker start on Wednesday morning.
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 8873.00 | – 24.00 | – 0.27% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 8886.80 | + 30.30 | 0.34% |
| S&P500 | 7568.92 | + 27.52 | 0.36% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 25372.01 | + 207.65 | 0.83% |
| DJIA | 51786.72 | – 197.26 | – 0.38% |
| S&P500 VIX | 20.76 | – 0.39 | – 1.84% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.95 | + 0.06 | 1.19% |
| USD Index | 101.86 | + 0.10 | 0.10% |
| FTSE100 | 10638.43 | – 122.90 | – 1.14% |
| DAX30 | 25864.62 | – 116.47 | – 0.45% |
Good Morning,
The ASX200 took the RBA 25bps rate hike in its stride and rose 30 points or 0.34% to 8886.80.
At the session’s intra-day low the index was down -13 points and its high on the day was up 52 points.
Alongside the race that stops the nation, volumes were low.
Today, Goodman Group ((GMG)) is due to announce its quarterly update and Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX)) is hosting an Investor Day.
UBS on Amcor ((AMC)):
“1Q27 result to be reported 5 November (AEDT) We forecast EPS growth of -5% to 92cps, at the bottom end of guidance (92-98cps), and below VA cons (95.5cps).
“Our 1Q27E forecasts are underpinned by Berry synergies ($65mn), with revenue expected to be flat vs pcp, reflecting ongoing volume softness (UBSe -1%, vs guide flat-to-modest growth).
“We expect Amcor to reiterate its DecH EPS guidance of $1.80-1.90/sh (-2% to +4% vs pcp), consistent with UBSe/VA cons of $1.84/1.85 respectively.
“We expect the market to be focused on the volume growth outlook, synergy realisation, input cost inflation management, and leverage. We forecast Dec-H’27 leverage of 3.7x, with the company targeting leverage of 3.5-3.6x.”
For more details and to stay in touch with which companies are reporting, AGMs and going ex-dividend, check out the FNArena Calendar https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
RBC Capital on ResMed ((RMD)):
“We have analyzed Philips’ (covered by Natalia Webster) 3Q26 result (Dec YE) for potential implications for RMD which include:
“The Connected Care segment reported comparable sales growth of 5% (vs +2% in 2Q26), driven by mid-single-digit growth in Monitoring, Sleep & Respiratory Care accelerating to mid-single digit growth (vs low single-digit growth in 2Q26), and Enterprise Informatics achieved high single-digit growth. Management said the Sleep & Respiratory Care revenue performance was driven by strong demand for sleep therapy devices in Japan and Europe.
“While Philips’ Sleep & Respiratory Care revenue growth improved to a mid-single digit percentage due to demand for sleep devices in markets outside of the US, we note RMD’s constant currency RoW revenue growth was 13% in the corresponding Sep 26 qtr (or RBCe 9% excluding the France fleet renewal).
“Therefore RMD has continued to outperform Philips in RoW markets and we consider this a potential positive read-through for what could occur when Philips returns to the US market.“
Market Overview, J.L. Bernstein extract
Chips Bounced Back, Apple Didn’t
Chip stocks ended Monday down more than a fifth from their October high, which Wall Street typically calls a bear market.
Today they bounced back, led by the companies that make memory chips.
Those same chips go into every iPhone, and they’ve gotten so expensive that Apple $AAPL warned they’ll cut into its profits, so its stock fell.
With Apple down and chip stocks up, Nvidia $NVDA passed Apple again as the world’s most valuable company.
Wall Street Isn’t Ready for a Democratic Sweep
People betting real money on the election think Democrats are all but sure to win the House and have about a 3-in-4 shot at the Senate.
Even so, investors told CNBC the stock market hasn’t really prepared for Democrats taking both.
JPMorgan thinks that could knock stocks down tomorrow, especially AI companies, while Republicans keeping the Senate could give stocks a short-term lift.
Whatever happens tonight, the S&P500 has risen in the last three months of 21 of the past 23 midterm years, according to Deutsche Bank.
Even Meta Is Paying More to Borrow
Meta Platforms $META borrowed US$15 billion in a bond sale today, and lenders made it pay up.
On its 10-year bonds, Meta will pay about 1.6 percentage points more than the U.S. government does, while strong companies usually pay about 0.9 points more.
The tech giants building AI data centers are borrowing huge sums, and JPMorgan says their borrowing costs just hit a high for the year.
I’d keep an eye on that, because when borrowing costs more, AI gets more expensive to build, and one good day for chips doesn’t change it.
ANZ Bank, Australian Morning Focus, extract
A recovery in technology stocks supported US equity markets, while bond yields rose as markets await the results of the US midterms and US-Iran negotiations.
The S&P500 was up 0.36%, and Nasdaq up 0.83%. The EuroStoxx50 fell -0.5% and FTSE100 fell -1.1%.
The 10yr US yield rose 3bp to 4.95%. WTI fell to US$96.6/bbl and gold was at US$3,925/oz.
US JOLTS job openings rose 333k to 7,523k in September, well above the consensus of 7,164k. Gains were broad-based across industries. The quits rate rose 0.2ppt to 2.1%, the highest since June 2025, while the layoffs rate fell -0.1ppt to 1.0%.
Taken together, the data point to an improvement in labour market conditions. October’s nonfarm payrolls report is due on Friday.
US midterm election results are expected to start coming in later today. Recent polls and prediction markets indicate the Democrats are likely to take control of both the House and the Senate, which would constrain the Trump administration’s policy agenda and likely lead to gridlock on key issues.
President Trump retains veto power over legislation and influence over trade and foreign policy, but fiscal policy will be greatly constrained, raising the risk of a government shutdown in 2027, with the debt ceiling due to be reached sometime between the northern late winter and mid-summer.
The most immediate implication of the midterms for financial markets will be the prospect of a resolution in the Middle East or a return to offensive military action by the US, with Trump having previously said he would not attack Iran prior to the midterms.
Overnight, the US launched limited defensive strikes on Iranian targets, but diplomatic efforts are continuing.
RBA hikes. As was widely expected, the RBA’s Monetary Policy Board increased the cash rate to 4.85% yesterday. The decision was split, with six members voting for the increase and three against.
The tone of the post-meeting statement remains hawkish on the inflation front and the RBA is clearly concerned about inflation expectations. At the same time the post-meeting statement acknowledges the slowdown in activity.
In our view we are at or close to the cash rate peak, and we are not forecasting another increase in rates.
All eyes on the US midterms, Ipek Ozkardeskay, Swissquote, extra
If Democrats gain control of one or both chambers in today’s midterms, they could increase scrutiny of the administration’s handling of the war, use their influence over spending to challenge additional military funding and increase pressure for a diplomatic solution once the new Congress takes office in January.
Markets, however, could anticipate that pressure immediately. If, on top of that, the result is followed by credible negotiations and prospects of safer shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could fall sustainably.
Bloomberg reports that Gulf Arab countries are already exporting close to their pre-war levels. If diplomatic progress reduces risks, spot and near-term prices could fall faster than longer-dated futures, narrowing backwardation as the premium for immediate supply eases.
That would be the sweetest-case scenario for the world economy. Unfortunately, though, a Democratic victory would not automatically end the conflict.
The US President would retain considerable influence over foreign policy, and a weaker Republican position wouldn’t automatically mean a lower geopolitical risk premium, even if it increased pressure for a diplomatic resolution.
If Republicans retain control of Congress, however, the US administration would face fewer political obstacles.
The geopolitical stalemate in the Middle East could persist, while the end of the election campaign could reduce the immediate political urgency to bring energy prices down.
Separately, if temporary measures introduced to ease pressure on energy prices are allowed to expire or are scaled back, that could add upward pressure on US petrol prices in the short run.
Higher energy prices, on the other hand, would strengthen the case for further monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other major central banks.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a 25bp hike today, as expected, while the Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to announce a 25bp hike on Thursday, following a rather uneventful budget announcement last week that allows the BoE to go on with its life — and take care of its inflation problem.
The Big Picture
Overall, if we take a step back and look at the bigger picture, the latest monetary policy decisions have brought either rate hikes or the prospect of tighter monetary policy to fight inflation fuelled by elevated global energy prices.
On top of that, many developed-market bond yields face upward pressure from intensifying fiscal concerns, while large bond issuance by technology companies to finance their massive AI buildout could add to that pressure.
Alphabet, for example, sold EUR6 billion (US$6.7bn) of bonds, adding to the EUR9 billion it raised across six tranches in May.
This brings its total euro-denominated issuance this year to EUR15 billion, making it the biggest corporate issuer in the currency in a single calendar year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, overtaking Amazon’s EUR14.5 billion raised in March.
According to the European Central Bank (ECB), US Big Tech accounted for almost one in every ten euros of gross euro-denominated bond issuance by non-financial companies this year, based on data through 20 August.
That borrowing could put further pressure on financing costs, potentially spilling over into sovereign bond yields and then rippling through the broader economy.
RBA meeting commentary from Malin Rosengren, Portfolio Manager – BlueBay Fixed Income at RBC BlueBay Asset Management
The RBA is likely at the end of their hiking cycle, with the risk of one additional hike left in chamber.
The bank will likely remain on hold from here whilst the impact of the tightening materializes more firmly in the data, given monetary policy transmission typically exhibits a 9-12mth lag.
Over this period we should see evidence of a continuing correction in housing prices, softening credit growth and further loosening in the labor market lend itself to weakening demand and slowing inflation.
The RBA has set the threshold for further upside surprises in inflation data quite high after their forecast revisions in the November Statement on Monetary Policy report.
By doing so they have given themselves plenty of space to ride out inflationary pressures without having to be as reactive with monetary policy.
Outlook – RBA on hold from here
Overall, though, we think the RBA will remain on edge as we enter 2027 but keep rates on hold.
The slowdown in the economy through next year, led by the consumer, and the resultant lift in the unemployment rate should see inflation moderate from here and return closer to target in late 2027.
The risk remains the need for further tightening of monetary policy in 2027. But getting the Board across the line may take inflation surprising to the upside again or no progress on bringing aggregate demand lower.
On this note, the RBA, like us, is expecting trimmed mean CPI to print at 0.9%/qtr in Q4 (due 27 January).
We expect this additional rate hike to add to the slowdown in growth and gradually bring inflation back to target.
We continue to pencil in two rate cuts in late 2027, in August and November, which would bring the cash rate down to 4.35%.
This end-2027 forecast for the cash rate of 4.35% is consistent with the continued upward drift in the neutral rate of interest amid the global data centre, renewables and defence investment booms, as well as continued challenges with the supply side of the Australian economy.
Corporate news in Australia:
- Arena REIT ((ARF)) contracts to sell two additional early learning centre properties, lifting FY27 contracted disposal proceeds to $23.1m at a 7.9% premium to book value, while narrowing distribution guidance to 20c per security
- Jefferies’ clients acquire around 12% of SPC Global ((SPG)) through purchases of approximately 158m shares at 6.6c each, following the company’s recapitalisation earlier this year
- Abu Dhabi’s XRG agrees to acquire Shell’s 16.7% stake in the North West Shelf LNG project for at least US$1.45bn, expanding its Australian LNG exposure
- Blackstone’s proposed US$36bn acquisition of HSBC Australia’s loan book faces execution risks after the portfolio reportedly loses around US$6bn in customers to rival lenders
- Warburg Pincus faces a 48-hour deadline to improve its $2.2bn takeover offer for Ingenia Communities ((INA)), as Avid’s consortium holds exclusive due diligence, with both bidders seeking to derail Ingenia’s proposed $1bn Peet ((PPC)) acquisition
- Walker Lane acquires adviser Vaughan’s client book for approximately six times EBITDA, paying 50% in cash and 50% in shares, while bringing the adviser into its partnership
- Morrison has yet to secure funding for a proposed $500m-plus equity investment in AGL Energy’s ((AGL)) renewable energy pipeline, while PAG reportedly withdraws from talks to acquire BlackRock’s Akaysha Energy business
- Ramelius Resources ((RMS)) appoints Barrenjoey ((BJY)) to pursue Northern Star Resources’ ((NST)) Carosue Dam mine, reportedly valued at $800m, while Gold Fields considers improving its rejected $36bn cash-and-scrip takeover proposal for Northern Star
- Anthropic appoints eight Australian brokers to facilitate retail participation in its proposed US$100bn IPO, with an Australian prospectus expected to be lodged with ASIC next week
- Canva struggles to lift annualised revenue beyond US$3.69bn against its US$5.2bn target, with declining active users prompting discussions over potential staff reductions
- Sunrise Energy Metals ((SRL)) commits $456m to develop its Syerston scandium mine in NSW
On the calendar today:
-NZ 3Q Average hourly earnings q/q
-NZ 3Q Employment change q/q
-NZ 3Q Employment change y/y
-NZ 3Q Participation rate
-NZ 3Q Private wages excluding overtime
-NZ 3Q Private wages including overtime
-NZ 3Q Unemployment
-AU Oct Composite PMI (final)
-AU Oct PMI (final)
-AU Oct Services PMI (final)
-AU Sep Household spending
-CH Oct PMI
-CH Oct RatingDog composite PMI
-CH Oct RatingDog services PMI
-EZ Oct Composite PMI (final)
-EZ Oct CPI (prelim)
-UK Oct PMI (final)
-US Oct ADP employment
-US Oct Composite PMI (final)
-US Oct ISM services
-US Oct PMI (final)
-US Sep Trade balance
-CHORUS LIMITED ((CNU)) AGM
-GOODMAN GROUP ((GMG)) Qtrly update
-TELIX PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED ((TLX)) Capital Markets Day
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 3920.77 | – 25.36 | – 0.64% |
| Silver (oz) | 49.66 | – 0.83 | – 1.64% |
| Copper (lb) | 6.38 | – 0.13 | – 2.00% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.40 | – 0.01 | – 0.61% |
| Nickel (lb) | 6.92 | + 0.01 | 0.14% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.79 | – 0.01 | – 0.52% |
| West Texas Crude | 96.58 | + 0.87 | 0.91% |
| Brent Crude | 104.24 | + 0.36 | 0.35% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 91.03 | – 0.22 | – 0.24% |
The Australian share market over the past thirty days…
| Index | 03 Nov 2026 | Week To Date | Month To Date (Nov) | Quarter To Date (Oct-Dec) | Year To Date (2026) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 8886.80 | -0.24% | -0.24% | 1.11% | 1.98% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| AMP | AMP | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Ord Minnett |
| ARF | Arena REIT | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| BHP | BHP Group | Upgrade to Hold from Trim | Morgans |
| BOE | Boss Energy | Upgrade to Trim from Sell | Morgans |
| COL | Coles Group | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Ord Minnett |
| FRW | Freightways Group | Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| L1G | L1 Group | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Bell Potter |
| LTR | Liontown | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| ORG | Origin Energy | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| RIO | Rio Tinto | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Morgans |
| RMD | ResMed | Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy | Morgans |
| Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy | Ord Minnett | ||
| RMY | RMA Global | Downgrade to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy | Bell Potter |
| TTT | Titomic | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author’s and not by association FNArena’s – see disclaimer on the website)
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