AGL ENERGY LIMITED (AGL)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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AGL

AGL - AGL ENERGY LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Infrastructure & Utilities
Year End: June
GICS Industry Group : Utilities
Debt/EBITDA: 1.09
Index: ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

AGL Energy owns and operates several power stations and is developing several renewable energy projects. The company also supplies gas for residential and commercial use. AGL was the second company to list on the Sydney stock exchange in 1871.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$10.67

21 Mar
2025

0.120

OPEN

$10.53

1.14%

HIGH

$10.75

2,796,354

LOW

$10.53

TARGET
$11.918 11.7% upside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
AIA . ALX . APA . CEN . DBI . DBI . GNE . GNP . MEZ . ORG . SRJ . TCL .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
AGL: 1
Title FY23
Actual		 FY24
Actual		 FY25
Forecast		 FY26
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 105.7 99.7 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 61.0 58.0 xxx
EPS Growth xxx N/A - 5.7% xxx
DPS Growth xxx 96.8% - 4.9% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 10.8 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 5.4% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx 57.7% 58.2% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 8.16%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 5.66

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 27/08 - (franking ex-di

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201920202021202220232024
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx105.7
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx61.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx13,583.0 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx807.3
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,240.0 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx5.23 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201920202021202220232024
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx13.48 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8.84 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4.60 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx13.48 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx20.27 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,072.0 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201920202021202220232024
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx35 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,693 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,728 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,073 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,168 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.34

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201920202021202220232024
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx838.0 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6.17 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx11,436 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx509 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,057 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.3

No. Of Recommendations

4
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Morgan Stanley

06/03/2025

3

Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight

$11.88

11.34%

Morgan Stanley downgrades AGL Energy to Neutral from Overweight and lowers the target price to $11.88 from $12.66, with the share price up 22% in the last year.

The broker prefers AGL to Origin Energy ((ORG)) due to its leverage to data centres and valuation, with draft retail tariffs expected to be announced and the 2025 Federal Election likely to fuel debates around nuclear energy and rebates.

Morgan Stanley also explains that investors are not factoring in the company's battery investments in valuations, as battery returns are viewed as "unprecedented" for integrated utilities.

Neutral. Target $11.88. Industry View: In-Line.

FORECAST
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 97.10 cents.
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 103.50 cents.

UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Login above or Get a Free Trial
Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

1

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Goldman Sachs

17/02/2025

3

Neutral

$11.90

11.53%

AGL Energy reported a stronger-than-expected 1H25 result with $1.07bn EBITDA 13% above Goldman Sachs' forecast and 8% above consensus, supported by stronger electricity trading and origination earnings.

The 'beat' was achieved despite prolonged coal plant downtime, the broker notes.

The broker observes even after a strong 1H25, the company only slightly narrowed EBITDA guidance toward the top end to $1.935-2.135bn from $1.87-2.17bn.

Goldman continues to estimate earnings towards the top end at $2.09bn (previously $2.06bn). Target price rises to $11.90 from $11.50. Neutral rating maintained.

FORECAST
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 99.00 cents.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 78.00 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

AGL STOCK CHART

FNArena News on AGL

1
Rudi’s View: To Sell Or Not To Sell

Mar 06 2025 - Rudi's View
2
Rudi’s View: Best Ideas & Conviction Calls

Feb 20 2025 - Rudi's View
3
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 17, 2025

Feb 17 2025 - Daily Market Reports
4
Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 14-02-25

Feb 17 2025 - Weekly Reports
5
FNArena Corporate Results Monitor – 13-02-2025

Feb 13 2025 - Australia

Latest Infrastructure & Utilities News

1
Rudi’s View: To Sell Or Not To Sell

Mar 06 2025 - Rudi's View
2
AGL Energy: Data Centres To The Rescue?

Nov 07 2024 - Australia
3
Origin Energy Surprises To The Downside

Aug 20 2024 - Australia
4
Uptrend In Place For Origin Energy

Jul 30 2024 - Technicals
5
Can Gentrack Live Up To Its Shareprice?

Jul 11 2024 - Small Caps
6
AGL Energy Shares Eyeing $12 Target

Jun 25 2024 - Technicals
7
Next Week At A Glance – 10-14 Jun 2024

Jun 07 2024 - Weekly Reports
8
ESG Focus: The Little Big Things – 15-11-2023

Nov 15 2023 - ESG Focus
9
ESG Focus: ESG-Linked Remuneration Now In Focus

Oct 19 2023 - ESG Focus
10
Book Excerpt: Need To Know About Investing In Infrastructure

Jun 09 2023 - Book Reviews