Weekly Reports | Apr 11 2025
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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ARENA REIT ((ARF)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Moelis reckons the -17% fall in Arena REIT's share price is overdone, and excluding Goodman Group ((GMG)), it has underperformed the sector by -13%.
In the broker's assessment, the business model is defensive in the current uncertain macro backdrop while also being a beneficiary of likely interest rate cuts.
Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold on valuation grounds. Target unchanged at $3.98.
BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED ((BSL)) Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden increased its forecasts for BlueScope Steel's 2H25 earnings, with the key driver being a widening in the US and Asian steel spreads.
The broker expects the Trump administration's tariffs to benefit local US steelmakers via higher demand and reduced competition.
The analyst also increased the 2H25 spread estimate for benchmark Asian steel to US$195/t from US$190/t, with the revised numbers now in line with the company's guidance.
Target rises to $24.00 from $23.20. Rating upgraded to Overweight from Underweight on recent share price pullback.
CHAMPION IRON LIMITED ((CIA)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden is forecasting below-consensus production and sales for Champion Iron in the March quarter due to the planned semi-annual mill relining. The broker's costs forecast is also above consensus.
Additionally, the broker has pushed back the forecast for DRPF commissioning to the December quarter from September quarter, though it didn't cite a reason.
Target price drops to $7.02 from $7.34 due to revised timing for DRPF start and ramp-up, plus lower near-term sales price.
Rating upgraded to Buy from Overweight to factor in potential value in DRPF, including further pricing premiums and undeveloped resources.
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