CHAMPION IRON LIMITED (CIA)
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08/07/2026

1

Outperform

$6.80

99.41%

Macquarie notes commodity prices have weakened since mid-June, with iron ore down -4%, aluminium -13%, copper -2%, spodumene -6% and thermal coal -3%.

The broker has lowered its calendar 2026-27 price forecasts for iron ore by around -1%, metallurgical coal -6%, copper -2%, aluminium -8% and thermal coal -9%, resulting in earnings per share downgrades across the sector.

Target prices have been reduced by around -4% for iron ore and diversified miners, while Whitehaven Coal and New Hope have received larger target price cuts of around -11%. Macquarie retains Outperform ratings on Fortescue, Mineral Resources and Whitehaven Coal as its preferred picks.

While lowering its near-term outlook for coal and aluminium, the broker has left its long-term commodity price assumptions unchanged.

Champion Iron retains an Outperform rating with a lower target of $6.80 from $7.10.

FORECAST
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 12.67 cents and EPS of 33.05 cents.
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 23.86 cents.

01/06/2026

3

Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight

$4.60

(31/07/2026)

34.90%

Jarden downgrades Champion Iron to a Neutral rating with its target price reduced to $5.00 following a lower-than-expected dividend outcome and apparent deteriorating business conditions.

A revised distribution framework based on trailing free cash flow metrics has been introduced to preserve liquidity amid rising operational costs.

Unit operating costs increased during the final quarter due to higher fuel and land transport dynamics, with seaborne freight inflation providing a further drag on earnings.

Imminent sales of high-grade product from the direct reduction pellet feed expansion project will begin in the upcoming quarter.

Forward EBITDA projections are lowered by -20% for FY27, though the underlying strategy of increasing premium iron ore product exposure remains intact, the broker highlights.