LIONTOWN LIMITED (LTR)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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08/10/2026

1

Outperform

$1.25

74.83%

Macquarie remains constructive on lithium despite weak market sentiment, arguing continued inventory drawdowns point to a tighter physical market than current prices imply.

Supply risks remain underappreciated, in the broker's view, including CATL's Jianxiawo mine outage and licensing delays across Chinese lepidolite operations. It's also felt that larger EV battery packs could provide additional demand support.

Macquarie switches its preferred lithium exposure to PLS Group from IGO Ltd.

Reduced risk for PLS is noted around P2000 capex and a near-term production uplift is seen as a catalyst.

Liontown screens as the most expensive, implying a spodumene price of around US$1,300/t SC6, followed by IGO at US$1,200/t and PLS at US$1,125/t.

The smaller, Elevra Lithium screens as the cheapest, implying around US$900/t SC6, Macquarie highlights.

Unchanged Outperform rating and $1.25 target for Liontown.

This is a summary of research released by Macquarie yesterday.

FORECAST
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.80 cents.
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.10 cents.

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02/09/2026

1

Buy

$1.90

165.73%

Canaccord Genuity maintains a Buy rating for Liontown with a $1.90 target price following the release of an FY26 result featuring an underlying NPAT of $14m.

This profit significantly beat Canaccord Genuity's -$114m forecast and consensus estimates of -$78m, primarily driven by tax benefits, while EBITDA of $147m fell slightly short of expectations.

Management reiterated FY27 production guidance of 390kt to 440kt, though early shipments will be impacted by Geraldton port issues which are expected to be recovered later in the year.

A final investment decision regarding the Kathleen Valley expansion to 4Mtpa is anticipated during the September quarter, prompting the analyst to bring forward modelled 4Mtpa production rates to mid-2029.

Valuation revisions incorporate lowered expansion capital expenditure assumptions from $500m to $350m, offset by minor downward adjustments to FY27 production and unit cost forecasts resulting in an -8% reduction to near-term EBITDA estimates.