Daily Market Reports | 8:48 AM
This story features BHP GROUP LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BHP
The company is included in ASX20, ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Nasdaq staged a sizeable comeback to finish slightly positive on the day, as the US 10-year yield fell.
Buying continued in defensives like healthcare stocks, with the Dow rallying another 1%.
The Australian market recovered off its intraday lows with robust buying in the Big Banks, post softer-than-expected September labour force data.
ASX200 futures are pointing to a strong start for the weekend.
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 8844.00 | + 93.00 | 1.06% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 8719.70 | – 8.20 | – 0.09% |
| S&P500 | 7744.06 | + 25.12 | 0.33% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 26713.03 | + 20.16 | 0.08% |
| DJIA | 52177.69 | + 556.21 | 1.08% |
| S&P500 VIX | 16.46 | – 0.41 | – 2.43% |
| US 10-year yield | 5.09 | – 0.10 | – 1.95% |
| USD Index | 102.02 | – 0.51 | – 0.50% |
| FTSE100 | 10840.35 | + 115.49 | 1.08% |
| DAX30 | 25382.62 | + 84.01 | 0.33% |
Good Morning,
The ASX200 rallied off its intraday low to finish down just -8.2 points or -0.09%. At the session’s low, the index was down -87 points, with buying in Banks, Staples, Telcos and Healthcare supporting the recovery.
The big rotation out of Resources into Banks saw BHP Group ((BHP)) detract -48 index points and CommBank ((CBA)) add 27.53 index points, followed by the other three Big Banks.
Weaker-than-expected employment data saw rate hike expectations for the RBA at the November 3 meeting pulling back and supporting selective (large cap) buying.
Small caps continued to be hard hit, down -2.19% and -17.1% year-to-date versus the ASX200, up 0.1% in 2026.
In New York, Alcoa ((AAI)) shares gained 1.5% in late trade after what seem to have been a solid Q3 performance beat.
Adj EPS: $1.82 versus consensus $1.62; Q3’25A: loss-$0.02)
UEBITDA: $789M versus consensus $725M; Q3’25A: $270M)
RBC Capital on Netwealth Group’s ((NWL)) market update released yesterday:
“While 1Q27 flows disappointed and NWL now relying on back-ended transition flows to hit guidance, we think the structural growth drivers in super and wealth remain intact.
“We update for the slower 1Q27 flows, cutting our FY27E flow forecast to A$17.3bn or bottom end of lowered A$17-19bn guide. We trim our EPS forecast ~3% in FY27E and ~7% FY28E.
“NWL is trading on ~28x FY27E 12m fwd P/E, offering ~11% 3YR EPS CAGR, supporting our Outperform rating. Our PT falls to A$20.00 on lower EPS forecasts and higher cost of capital given recent flow uncertainty.”
For more details and to stay in touch with which companies are reporting, AGMs and going ex-dividend, check out the FNArena Calendar https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
Market Overview, J.L. Bernstein extract
Money Left Chips for the Rest of the Market
The iShares Semiconductor ETF fell for an eighth straight day, its longest losing streak since 2015.
Buyers moved into drug makers and food companies instead, and healthcare stocks hit a record high.
More than half the S&P500 now sits above its long-term trend, up from four in ten in September.
That’s a healthier market than one riding on a few chip giants.
Investors Want to Know Who Pays for AI
The 20 most valuable AI and chip stocks worldwide have shed more than US$1 trillion this week.
With Treasury yields near their highest since the early 2000s, borrowing to build data centers isn’t cheap anymore.
The cost to insure CoreWeave $CRWV debt hit a record, pricing in better-than-even odds of default within five years.
The stock bounced anyway after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said CoreWeave’s borrowing costs are actually falling.
Inflation Ran Hot, Yields Fell Anyway
Wholesale prices rose at the fastest monthly pace since 2022, more than double what economists expected.
Normally that sends bond yields higher. This time the tech selloff scared money into Treasurys instead.
Odds of an October rate hike fell below one in three, down from nearly a coin flip Wednesday.
ANZ Bank, Australian Morning Focus extract
Market moves were mixed, with European equity indices mostly up but US indices down as US CPI bolstered expectations for Fed hikes and drove up US short-end bond yields.
The S&P500 was up 0.33, the Dow Jones up 1.08%. Nasdaq finished up 0.08%.
The EuroStoxx50 ended its session down -0.4%, while the FTSE100 gained 1.1%.
The yield on the US 10y note fell around -1.7bp to 5.09%. WTI lifted 3.9% to US$97.8/bbl. Gold was stronger at US$4,169.8/oz.
US September retail sales rose 0.8% m/m, driven mainly by high gasoline prices. Ex-autos and gasoline, sales rose a more moderate 0.2% m/m and control group sales rose 0.1% m/m.
When the rise in September inflation is accounted for, core measures of retail sales were likely negative in volume terms. That aligns with the very weak levels of consumer sentiment in the University of Michigan consumer survey.
High fuel costs are sapping consumer spending power and worsening the affordability crisis for most households. We still believe demand-pull inflation pressures remain weak and that the US is not facing anywhere near the type of inflation problem it had post COVID.
US September PPI inflation rose 1.3% m/m, with final demand goods inflation up 2.6% m/m. That was the highest monthly gain for that category since the series started in December 2009. Final demand services inflation rose 0.8% m/m, as trade services rose 1.4% m/m, transport and warehousing rose 3.4% m/m and other services rose 0.3% m/m.
US Fed: The sell-off in the US high yield market and tech stocks continued, driving a short squeeze rally in US Treasuries following their recent period of weakness. The risk-off tone in markets is also contributing to modest expectations of a Fed rate hike this month despite disappointing CPI and PPI inflation data for September.
As with the CPI, the PPI data provided no evidence that inflation is currently on a path that can return it to 2.0% in a timely fashion. The Fed’s reaction function is still in question, highlighted by the conflict between patient guidance from some senior FOMC officials and the elevated September inflation data.
We estimate that September core PCE will rise 0.3% m/m which would leave the 3m annualised rate at 2.7%, up from 2.0% in August.
Based on that core PCE expectation and the CPI and PPI data, we think the Fed will raise interest rates this month.
Containing inflation is at the core of its remit given that the labour market is currently stable. To not raise rates would send a signal that the Warsh-led Fed is tolerant of inflation slippage and associated upside risks.
Precious metals rebounded as bond yields fell. Energy also rose on supply disruptions. Industrial metals fell on concerns of tighter monetary policy.
Australian September Labour Force data:
ANZ Bank: The RBA’s November decision will ultimately depend on where the Board sees both the activity and inflation sides of the economy.
Concerns about domestic capacity pressures highlighted in the September minutes, increases in energy prices since August, and the possibility that RBA staff are reassessing the level of unemployment required to bring inflation back to target all point to upside risks to the inflation outlook.
Combined with a likely higher starting point for inflation (Q3 inflation data due on 28 October), these factors point to upward revisions to the RBA’s inflation forecasts in the November Statement on Monetary Policy.
Accordingly, while today’s labour force data make a November rate hike less likely than before, we continue to think a 25bp rate hike is more likely than not. Much will depend on the evolution of data and events between now and the November meeting.
CommBank: The data overall lends support to our expectation that the RBA will be on hold in November as they weigh the data flow to see if four rate hikes will be enough.
(…) the risks remain firmly tilted to the upside and another hike is plausible.
We will get two key pieces of information ahead of the November board meeting: Deputy Governor Hauser will have an opportunity to clarify the RBA’s reaction function on 21 October and we get the key Q3 CPI data on 28 October.
NAB: Australia’s September labour market report was softer than expected. Employment fell 39k (albeit with full-time employment up 34k) as the unemployment rate rose 0.1ppt to 4.7%.
Unemployment is now clearly running above the RBA’s August forecast of 4.5% for Q4, with the driver of higher unemployment slowly shifting from expanding participation to slower employment growth (trend employment growth has now slowed to +16k).
We still see the risk of another rate hike from the RBA, but these data make it clear that the trade-off between prices and employment has become sharper. Australian bond yields fell sharply, but by the end of the day the declines in Australian rates were hard to disentangle from the broader sovereign bond rally.
Westpac: Beneath the monthly noise, the labour market continues to loosen gradually, with jobs growth running slower than labour force growth. We expect the unemployment rate to peak at 4.8% in mid-2027, though there is upside risk to this forecast.
The data complicate the RBA’s ‘a little tight’ messaging, but with inflation the clear priority, we still expect a 25bp hike in November.
The US dollar is set to weaken, Oxford Economics extract
While rising real yields and tighter monetary policy conditions remain supportive of the US dollar in the near term, the currency remains expensive relative to its long-run equilibrium value. Our framework points to a gradual depreciation over the coming years.
We forecast the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of six global currencies to be nearly -3% weaker by the end of the decade and to settle -8% to -9% below its current level in the long run.
This outlook aligns with the findings from our external-balance assessment, which estimates that the broad dollar is around 8% cyclically overvalued in real terms, the largest gap in more than two decades, with much of the imbalance concentrated against the euro, yen and yuan.
The decline in DXY is initially driven by euro appreciation, with the yen contributing more over time.
The euro area’s structurally stronger trade and current-account position is set to support the currency, with EUR/USD gradually moving towards its longer-run equilibrium rate of approximately US$1.19.
The yen tells a different story. Our framework also points to appreciation of the currency over time, but the adjustment towards equilibrium is likely to be more gradual.
The yen’s current weakness partly reflects the unusually wide interest-rate differentials that emerged as the Bank of Japan maintained a much looser monetary policy stance compared to other major central banks.
As the BoJ continues to normalise policy and these differentials narrow, this headwind should fade, supporting yen appreciation. Recent FX intervention should help limit any renewed depreciation.
Although the yuan isn’t included in DXY, its undervaluation plays an important role in shaping the outlook for the broader trade-weighted dollar.
Corporate news in Australia:
- Neara acquires Zepben to integrate electrical and physical grid modelling into its digital twin platform
- TPG acquires a 14.9% stake in EQT Holdings ((EQT)) amid competing takeover bids from TPG and BGH Capital
- Warburg Pincus sets a deadline for Ingenia Communities ((INA)) to consider its best-and-final takeover offer of $5.25 per share
- Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE)) rules out fire-sale disposals as it rationalises its portfolio to around 35 brands from 75
- KKR, I Squared Capital and Morrison compete for Lineage’s Asia-Pacific operations in an auction valued at around $2bn
- PRM acquires the Australian operations of Austria’s Swietelsky to expand its rail business into Australia’s east coast
- AIM Mining appoints Canaccord Genuity and Euroz Hartleys to explore a potential IPO valued at over $1bn
- Morse Micro converts to a public company and appoints advisers ahead of a potential ASX IPO
- Firmus backer suggests a potential Nasdaq IPO could deliver greater value than its abandoned $44bn ASX listing
- Paradice Investment Management plans to return $700m to major institutional investors from its small-cap fund to improve investment flexibility and performance
On the calendar today:
-NZ Sep Mfg PMI
-US Fed Warsh fireside chat with IMF Georgieva
-US Sep Industrial prod’n
-ALCOA CORPORATION ((AAI)) Qtrly update
-AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LIMITED ((AFG)) AGM
-GOWING BROS. LIMITED ((GOW)) ex-div 3c (100%)
-IMDEX LIMITED ((IMD)) AGM
-PERENTI LIMITED ((PRN)) AGM
-SILEX SYSTEMS LIMITED ((SLX)) AGM
-WAM MICROCAP LIMITED ((WMI)) ex-div 5.35c (100%)
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 4173.22 | + 71.68 | 1.75% |
| Silver (oz) | 57.45 | + 1.84 | 3.31% |
| Copper (lb) | 6.53 | – 0.02 | – 0.31% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.37 | – 0.01 | – 0.86% |
| Nickel (lb) | 7.02 | + 0.01 | 0.15% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.73 | – 0.01 | – 0.47% |
| West Texas Crude | 97.66 | + 2.56 | 2.69% |
| Brent Crude | 105.81 | – 0.18 | – 0.17% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 90.57 | – 0.17 | – 0.19% |
The Australian share market over the past thirty days…
| Index | 15 Oct 2026 | Week To Date | Month To Date (Oct) | Quarter To Date (Oct-Dec) | Year To Date (2026) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 8719.70 | 0.04% | -0.79% | -0.79% | 0.06% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| ALD | Ampol | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| BOE | Boss Energy | Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight | Morgan Stanley |
| CXO | Core Lithium | Upgrade to Buy from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
| DRR | Deterra Royalties | Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight | Morgan Stanley |
| EBR | EBR Systems | Downgrade to Speculative Buy from Buy | Morgans |
| FPR | FleetPartners Group | Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight | Morgan Stanley |
| GLF | Gemlife Communities | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Bell Potter |
| GYG | Guzman y Gomez | Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| KAR | Karoon Energy | Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
| LIC | Lifestyle Communities | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
| LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
| MIN | Mineral Resources | Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate | Morgans |
| PDN | Paladin Energy | Upgrade to Accumulate from Sell | Ord Minnett |
| PLS | PLS Group | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Bell Potter |
| Upgrade to Accumulate from Trim | Morgans | ||
| RGN | Region Group | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Bell Potter |
| S32 | South32 | Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight | Morgan Stanley |
| SFR | Sandfire Resources | Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
| SKG | Storage King | Downgrade to Sell from Hold | Bell Potter |
| VEA | Viva Energy | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS |
| WES | Wesfarmers | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Ord Minnett |
For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AAI - ALCOA CORPORATION
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AFG - AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BHP - BHP GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CBA - COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EQT - EQT HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GOW - GOWING BROS. LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IMD - IMDEX LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: INA - INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NWL - NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PRN - PERENTI LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SLX - SILEX SYSTEMS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TWE - TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WMI - WAM MICROCAP LIMITED