TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED (TWE)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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TWE

TWE - TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Food, Beverages & Tobacco
Year End: June
GICS Industry Group : Food, Beverage & Tobacco
Debt/EBITDA: 2.28
Index: ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Treasury Wine Estates is Australia's largest wine producer and distributor and one of the world's largest. Formerly operating as the wine division of international brewing company Foster's Group until May 2011, it was de-merged into a separate company. Owns iconic brands incl Penfolds, globally known for its luxurious Grange production.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$5.65

04 Dec
2025

-0.110

OPEN

$5.80

-1.91%

HIGH

$5.80

3,826,891

LOW

$5.65

TARGET
$6.135

-0.03 change from previous day

 8.6% upside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 70%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
AMC . AVG . CKF . COL . DMP . EDV . GYG . ING . LRK . MBH . MTS . RFG . SGLLV . SPG . WOA . WOW . YOW .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
TWE: 1
Title FY24
Actual		 FY25
Actual		 FY26
Forecast		 FY27
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 53.8 51.1 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 40.0 33.0 xxx
EPS Growth xxx 100.0% - 5.1% xxx
DPS Growth xxx 11.1% - 17.4% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 11.1 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 5.8% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx 74.3% 64.6% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 2.87%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 7.03

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 28/08 - ex-div 19c (franking 70%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 202020212022202320242025
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx53.8
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx40.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,990.1 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx589.6
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx525.7 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx14.61 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 202020212022202320242025
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx9.32 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6.47 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx5.25 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx9.32 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx11.56 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx80.1 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 202020212022202320242025
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx140 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,059 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,199 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,554 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx428 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.32

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 202020212022202320242025
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx137.1 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4.59 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,572 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx623 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx40 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

-0.2

No. Of Recommendations

6
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Citi

xx/xx/xxxx

5

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Morgan Stanley

02/12/2025

3

Equal-weight

$6.45

14.16%

Treasury Wine Estates will take a goodwill impairment of at least $687m on its US business in 1H26 results due to weaker US wine trends and lower long-term earnings assumptions.

Morgan Stanley believes softer trading could also hit other US assets, meaning total impairments may be larger. The broker's EBITS forecasts for FY26/27 are currently -7%/-5% below consensus, respectively and a $700m write-down would cut NAV to $5.10/share from $5.90.

The broker has a downside catalyst watch for 4Q25, noting a mid-December update on China/US performance and new CEO Sam Fischer’s views may trigger further consensus downgrades.

Equal-weight. Target price $6.45. Industry View: In-Line.

FORECAST
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 37.60 cents and EPS of 53.30 cents.
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 59.60 cents.

Morgans

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

2

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Taylor Collison

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Jarden

13/08/2025

2

Overweight

$9.20

62.83%

Jarden highlights Treasury Wine Estates delivered 17% EBITS growth in FY25 to $770m despite external challenges, and announced a $200m share buyback.

The broker has an optimistic view on the stock based on the Penfolds brand being the core value driver, but notes earnings challenges from US distributor changes. Weaker China trading and new CEO also add to the uncertainty.

FY26-28 EPS forecasts trimmed by -3% to -4% after assuming EBITS growth of 6% in FY26 (based on guidance), with Penfolds EBITS expected to grow 10%. 

The broker believes the stock's re-rating will require clear execution strategy from the new CEO and stabilisation of key markets.

Overweight. Target trimmed to $9.20 from $10.00.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 60.90 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 71.10 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

TWE STOCK CHART

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Latest Food, Beverages & Tobacco News

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2
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3
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