PIONEER CREDIT LIMITED (PNC)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

28/08/2025

1

Buy

$0.80

37.93%

Pioneer Credit reported FY25 cash collection up 1% to $142m, which missed Shaw and Partners' forecast and was attributed to the timing of debt portfolio purchases, with considerable purchases made in 4Q25 which left little time for collections.

The FY25 cost-to-serve ratio at 32% versus forecast at 35% was a positive surprise.

This offers some confidence to the analyst around FY26 collections, and management guided to FY26 net profit after tax of $18m, a rise of 80% on the just released FY25 result, as well as positive free cash flow for the current fiscal year.

Shaw and Partners expects procurement of $95m in debt portfolios in FY26 versus $69m in FY25.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 80c.

FORECAST
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.20 cents.
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.10 cents.

03/09/2025

1

Overweight

$0.82

41.38%

Wilsons highlights stronger-than-expected growth in Pioneer Credit's FY25 net profit, with $10.5m recorded vs guidance of $9m, and $1.2m in FY24.

The broker expects the net profit recovery to extend into FY26, underpinned by a meaningfully improved funding structure, lower cost to serve and disciplined execution on attractively priced PDP (purchased debt portfolio) acquisitions.

Upside risk comes from a major bank that appears to have been out of market since 2017, opening a large PDP opportunity.

Overall, the broker remains of the view the stock is an attractive turnaround play.

Overweight. Target rises to 87c from 82c..

FORECAST
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.50 cents.
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.30 cents.