Daily Market Reports | 8:56 AM
This story features RESMED INC, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RMD
The company is included in ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
US markets were pulled lower by big falls in Intel and Google shares last week, which saw the Nasdaq losing -2.86% on Friday.
Selling across the major indices was more evident.
The US midterms on November 3 will likely set the tone of the markets, with ongoing earnings reports providing more market inputs.
The Australian market had a positive session on Friday and its best week since August last week.
ASX200 futures are pointing to a flat-to-soft start ahead of the RBA's expected rate hike tomorrow.
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 8914.00 | – 4.00 | – 0.04% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 8908.10 | + 16.30 | 0.18% |
| S&P500 | 7580.07 | – 140.32 | – 1.82% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 25437.00 | – 747.73 | – 2.86% |
| DJIA | 51770.31 | – 572.25 | – 1.09% |
| S&P500 VIX | 19.42 | + 2.22 | 12.91% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.93 | – 0.06 | – 1.20% |
| USD Index | 101.96 | – 0.17 | – 0.16% |
| FTSE100 | 10729.78 | + 7.71 | 0.07% |
| DAX30 | 25818.21 | – 221.47 | – 0.85% |
Good Morning,
The Australian market slid from Friday’s intra-day high of a 1.1% gain and by the close of trade the gain had shrunk to 16.3 points or 0.18% to 8908.10.
The ASX200 managed to finish up 1.28% for the week and up 1.35% for the month of October.
This was the best week since early August, just as the market is pricing in an 80% chance of an RBA rate hike tomorrow of 25bps, marking the fifth rate hike this year, up from pricing of 60% before the September quarter CPI print.
Major sectors that led the market were Financials (up 6.91%), Healthcare (up 6.32%) , Utilities (up 9.34%) and Banks (up 7.68%) for the month.
Gold (down -8.72%), Metals & Mining (down -8.71%) and Materials (down -7.81%) were the big losers. It was a month of rotation out and risk off.
The Big Banks’ earnings reports start this week with Westpac ((WBC)) this morning, National Australia Bank ((NAB)) on Thursday and 1H27 earnings for Macquarie Group ((MQG)) on Friday.
RBC Capital on Coles Group ((COL)):
“Our view: COL’s 1Q was disappointing, as weaker value perception drove share leakage to WOW. COL’s early move on price before Christmas is a deliberate move to cauterise share losses before they become entrenched.
“With value front of mind and COL transitioning away from Down-Down, communication will also be key to restoring price trust. We now forecast $46m of price investment, $20m of fuel impacts and +2.6% LFL sales growth in 1H27.
“Downgrade to Sector Perform, $23/share PT vs $25 prev. We retain our COL>WOW preference, but further earnings risk from price investment and operating deleverage gives us caution.”
For more details and to stay in touch with which companies are reporting, AGMs and going ex-dividend, check out the FNArena Calendar https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
Market Overview, J.L. Bernstein extract
The Selloff Spreads to Chips While Staples Hit a Record
Intel and Amazon started it, and chipmakers followed, with AMD and Qualcomm among the hardest hit.
Both big chip ETFs fell below their 200-day average price for the first time since mid-2025.
Money moved into steadier names, with staples at an all-time high and healthcare at a 52-week high.
The Nasdaq had its worst month since March 2025, while the Dow finished October higher.
Fed Officials Line Up Behind a December Hike
Three Fed presidents said Friday they still want to raise rates, most likely in December.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said skipping a meeting “does not change the monetary policy destination.”
She and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem both shrugged off the recent market swings.
So don’t count on a falling stock market to talk the Fed out of a hike.
The Binance Hack Hit Crypto Stocks Harder Than Crypto
Hackers took about -US$6.3 billion from Binance, more than four times the old record from last year’s Bybit hack.
Bitcoin fell to around US$76,000, while Coinbase, Strategy and Robinhood fell further.
Binance set aside -US$6.3 billion to cover users, and about US$3 billion of the stolen crypto is frozen.
Crypto traders seem to believe Binance can pay.
ANZ Bank, Australian Morning Focus extract
The sell-off in equity markets continued last Friday. The S&P500 was down -1.8%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell -2.9% as earnings from key players disappointed expectations.
The EuroStoxx50 fell -1.2%, and the FTSE100 rose 0.1%.
The yield on the US 10y note fell -1bp to 4.93%. WTI rose 2.1% to US$104.1/bbl. Gold fell -3.9% to US$3,874.6/oz.
Euro area Q3 GDP rose 0.4% q/q, illustrating a significant degree of resilience amid geopolitical uncertainty, higher energy costs and tighter financial conditions.
A detailed breakdown of the data is not yet available, but the increases in both the manufacturing and services PMIs over the period indicate modest value-added contributions from major industry sectors.
The 0.4% q/q rise, however, masked an unbalanced regional performance. French GDP fell -0.1% q/q, Italian GDP was flat (0.0%), German GDP rose 0.2% and the multinational, tech and pharmaceutical focused Irish economy grew 5.5%, down from 10.2% in Q2.
Central banks weigh risks: The rout in tech stocks continued Friday night, driven by concerns about ambitious AI investment plans among hyperscalers amid declining free cash flow. Central banks are keeping a close eye on these developments, which are critical to the AI investment supercycle.
Recent weakness in tech stocks and a widening of high-yield spreads contributed to some central banks deciding not to recalibrate policy rates at their late-October meetings.
It was interesting that ECB chief economist Philip Lane said that AI firms are more sensitive to monetary policy. That’s because they are heavily reliant on borrowing to finance investment. The bias towards higher interest rates remains in place.
In the US, the strength in domestic demand (5.0% saar in Q3) is raising concerns that the breadth of inflationary pressures is widening. Firms cannot indefinitely absorb higher input costs.
With demand growing strongly, there is a risk that demand-led inflation pressures in the US will broaden.
The market-based measure of PCE inflation accelerated in August and September.
We expect the Fed, ECB and BoJ will raise rates 25bp in December.
Escalation after the mid-terms? Mark Dowding, RBC BlueBay Asset Managment
The focus this week will fall on the US mid-term elections and what then comes afterwards.
We expect a bruising night for the Republican Party, with the Democrats set to take clear control in both chambers of Congress.
Speaking with activists, it seems clear that there will be a push to impeach Trump and although the Democrats will be well short of the numbers required, there is a building sense that some disillusioned Republicans may seek to shore up their own popularity by throwing their commander-in-chief under the bus.
This notion would have been unthinkable just a few weeks ago and it speaks to how low the President’s approval ratings have sunk, that this is even a topic of conversation.
Yet, with Trump’s approval rating now so low, he may stop trying to play to the crowd. He knows that the war in the Middle East is largely unpopular with voters, but there is a risk that the President feels an ideological duty to prevail over the great evil, which he perceives the Iranian regime to represent.
With few who are close to the President prepared to question his wisdom or interrogate his plans for action, this could set the scene for a possible policy error.
Although it is hard to attach clear probabilities to military escalation, it certainly strikes us that a window for action in the coming month could well represent a 30% risk, and therefore it is something investors may be compelled to factor into their thinking and positioning in global markets.
There is much more value in yields and spreads than was the case earlier this year, and we think that it would be inappropriate to express a view which is too bearish at this juncture.
However, there have been a number of turning points in 2026.
In this respect, knowing when to have more risk and when to have less has been important in being able to add to positions during moments when we have seen market dislocations, and hopefully this is something we can be well prepared for in the weeks ahead, should this occur.
US MARKET CALL: AI Spooking Investors, Ed Yardeni & Toby Hearst, Yardeni Quicktakes
I. Stock Market Performance
Happy Halloween! Kids are enjoying the spooky cultural holiday today.
The celebration evolved from ancient Celtic harvest festivals tied to All Hallows’ Eve into the secular traditions of costumes, parties, and trick-or-treating that we know today.
Investors have been spooked about the AI trade since the S&P500 peaked at a record high of 7818.93 on October 6.
The index is down -3.1% since then. We can blame the big-cap AI-related stocks for that decline because the equal-weight S&P500—which doesn’t reflect those stocks’ performance more than any other’s—is up 4.9% since September 30.
That’s not very scary. Before that, the equal-weight index had fallen fell -6.5% from its record high on August 13 through September 30.
The Nasdaq is down -7.8% since it peaked at a record high on October 6. That’s not a very frightful decline for this relatively volatile index.
Somewhat more frightening has been the sharp drop in the momentum trade relative to the S&P500 since June 25. The former is a proxy for the AI trade.
On a ytd basis, it has been mostly a walk past the graveyard for most stock investors. For many, it has been a walk in the park.
The S&P500 is up 10.7% since the end of 2025, with the XMAGS up 14.0%, while the MAGS has lagged with a 3.8% gain so far this year.
So, despite the frightening warnings about concentration of leadership, the S&P500’s rally has broadened beyond the Magnificent-7.
Furthermore, the Russell2000 has been on an uptrend since early 2025, rising to a record high on August 14.
It dropped -3.2% since then through October 16, mostly on a scare from the bond market, which seems to be over.
II. Stock Market Earnings
Meanwhile, industry analysts’ consensus earnings expectations for the S&P500 show nothing to fear but fear itself.
The real concern is that they are not only fearless but also too optimistic. They currently expect that EPS will increase 16.1% next year to US$425 and 16.2% in 2028 to US$494.
Occasionally, reality bites, and last week’s Q3 earnings misses by Alphabet and Intel modestly reduced the quarter’s expected EPS growth rate to 23.8%, but Q4’s estimate remained exceptionally strong at 30.2%.
Forward earnings for the S&P500, S&P400, and S&P600 all rose to record highs again last week.
III. Valuation
Investors do seem to be fretting that industry analysts’ earnings outlooks reflect irrational exuberance. As a result, the S&P500 forward P/E is down to 18.2, its lowest reading since the April 2025 Liberation Day low.
Forward earnings is up 49.1% since then! (The stock market rally since then is all attributable to fabulous earnings momentum, or FEMO, because FOMO, or the fear of losing out that drives up the “P” of “P/E,” isn’t a factor.)
We still counsel investors to proceed with caution in the coming days. Let’s see how the midterm elections play out on November 3 and whether the war in the Middle East heats up again soon after.
Now that the FOMC blackout period is over, Fed officials are likely to signal a bigger rate hike in December than expected, say 50bps rather than 25bps.
AI jitters are likely to continue after Halloween. Nevertheless, we are sticking with our 7,900 year-end target for the S&P500.
Santa is coming.
IV. Sentiment
Odds are that Friday’s drop in the S&P500 weighed on the bull/bear ratios (BBR) we track.
We hope so. From a contrarian perspective, bearish BBR readings are bullish.
V. Credit
Alphabet and Intel stock prices dropped sharply after they reported weaker-than-expected earnings last week.
As a result, investors pulled back from the AI trade on mounting fears that the AI infrastructure buildout is at risk of a significant slowdown.
That notion spread to fixed-income securities. In recent weeks, the federal funds futures market’s forecast of the number of Fed rate cuts over the next 12 months fell from three or more to two.
The 10-year Treasury bond yield dropped by more than -30bps this month, led by a similar drop in the comparable TIPS yield.
We think that the 10-year yield might remain around 5.00% through the end of this year and for most of next year.
While credit-quality spreads have widened for AI-related bonds, the private credit market remains relatively calm.
The Bull/Bear Report, Lance Roberts, Simplevisor, extract
Friday’s decline did real technical damage. The S&P500 closed at 7,580.07, its first close below the 100-day moving average since early April.
It now sits -0.5% below that average at 7,615 and -1.5% below the 50-day at 7,697. From the October 6 record close of 7,819, it’s down -3.1%.
Is the bull trend over?
No. The index remains 3.7% above a rising 200-day average at 7,310, the line that defines the bigger trend, and while it slipped below that line for about three weeks in late March and early April, it has held above it ever since.
The short-term trend is another matter.
Pay attention to momentum as it confirms the break. RSI fell from 50.8 to 40.1 in a single session. MACD had been closing in on a bullish crossover, then turned back down below zero, and its histogram widened from -3.7 to -11.5 index points.
As noted above, sector breadth explains why the index fell while most stocks rose. Measured against the S&P500, eight of 11 sectors trade more than 2.5% above their 50-day relative average.
Energy leads at 9.5%, with health care at 9.0% and staples at 7.3%. Only technology at -3.9% and communication services at -8.4% sit meaningfully below.
The “safe” trade has become the crowded trade. In other words, the oversold groups are exactly where a rebound would have to start.
That setup also cuts both ways. Technology and communication services carry the heaviest weights in the index, and oversold can always get more oversold.
With the market trading below its 50- and 100-day averages, investors tend to sell rallies until the market reclaims those levels as support. Such is the nature of a broken short-term trend.
I wouldn’t treat Friday’s selloff as an automatic buying opportunity.
This week, we suggest that investors continue to hold core equity exposure at target weights and, importantly, avoid chasing a market bounce.
With the 100-day at 7,615 and the 50-day at 7,697, those levels are now resistance to rallies, rather than the support they were previously.
For now, any rally to those levels is where investors should rebalance exposures, not add. The first notable support level is the September 16th close at 7,552, followed by the July 31st close near 7,490.
Any close below 7,490 would certainly open the door to the 200-day near 7,310, and that’s where I’d tighten stops and raise some cash.
A close back above 7,615 would do the opposite. It would turn Friday into a one-day shakeout and favour adding growth exposure.
Corporate news in Australia:
- ResMed ((RMD)) completes the US$490m sale of healthcare technology business MatrixCare to Frazier Healthcare Partners, while quarterly revenue rises 6% to US$1.4bn
- Waterman Capital acquires a significant stake in advertising agency Special to fund international expansion, with Australian partners Cade Heyde and Lindsey Evans appointed global co-CEOs
- GenusPlus ((GNP)) completes the acquisition of New Zealand telecommunications infrastructure provider UCG
- Anchorage Capital Partners advances negotiations with landlords to halve the David Jones store network amid financial difficulties, while Larry Kestelman’s Brands Collective remains a potential buyer
- Pexa Group ((PXA)) completes the previously announced sale of Value Australia, finalising the divestment first disclosed in August
- Costa family-backed Go.Farm seeks more than $50m from the potential sale of its 825-hectare Tasmanian Premium Land portfolio, including 224 hectares of vineyards
- Ebos Group ((EBO)) is reportedly being marketed to private equity buyers for a potential full or partial sale, with the company valued at approximately $3.4bn amid a declining share price and executive departures
- Mercury Capital explores a $500m-plus sale of its approximately 50% stake in architecture and design firm Architectus, appointing Luminis Partners to approach private equity and trade buyers
- EQT considers a potential sale, IPO or minority stake divestment of cancer care provider Icon Group, with a formal process potentially commencing within six to eight months
- Pemba Capital Partners moves to acquire SMSF administration provider SuperGuardian, marking its second investment in the Australian self-managed superannuation sector
- Bendix Brakes faces difficulties attracting buyers, including Penrite and Amotiv ((AOV)), amid concerns over substantial asbestos-related liabilities
On the calendar today:
-AU Oct ANZ job ads
-AU Oct Manufacturing PMI (final)
-AU Sep Building approvals
-JP Oct Manufacturing PMI (final)
-CH Oct RatingDog manufacturing PMI
-EZ Oct Manufacturing PMI (final)
-UK Oct Manufacturing PMI (final)
-US Fed Goolsbee discussion
-US Oct ISM manufacturing
-US Oct ISM manufacturing employment
-US Oct ISM manufacturing new orders
-US Oct ISM manufacturing prices paid
-US Oct Manufacturing PMI (final)
-US Sep Construction spending
-N1 HOLDINGS LIMITED ((N1H)) ex-div 0.4c (0%)
-WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION ((WBC)) FY26 earnings report
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 3875.84 | – 191.42 | – 4.71% |
| Silver (oz) | 48.90 | – 5.26 | – 9.71% |
| Copper (lb) | 6.46 | – 0.21 | – 3.15% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.41 | + 0.02 | 1.17% |
| Nickel (lb) | 6.91 | – 0.09 | – 1.26% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.79 | + 0.01 | 0.72% |
| West Texas Crude | 104.12 | + 2.39 | 2.35% |
| Brent Crude | 113.43 | – 0.52 | – 0.46% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 90.71 | + 0.01 | 0.01% |
The Australian share market over the past thirty days…
| Index | 30 Oct 2026 | Week To Date | Month To Date (Oct) | Quarter To Date (Oct-Dec) | Year To Date (2026) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 8908.10 | 1.28% | 1.35% | 1.35% | 2.22% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| AMI | Aurelia Metals | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| ANN | Ansell | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | Citi |
| ARF | Arena REIT | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| ASB | Austal | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Bell Potter |
| BHP | BHP Group | Upgrade to Hold from Trim | Morgans |
| BOE | Boss Energy | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
| CCP | Credit Corp | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
| FRW | Freightways Group | Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| GDF | Garda Property | Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy | Morgans |
| IKE | ikeGPS Group | Upgraded to Buy from Hold | Bell Potter |
| INA | Ingenia Communities | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
| LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| PRU | Perseus Mining | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Ord Minnett | ||
| REH | Reece | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | Citi |
| RIO | Rio Tinto | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Morgans |
| SFR | Sandfire Resources | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Morgans |
| Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS | ||
| TTT | Titomic | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| WOW | Woolworths Group | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Morgans |
| Downgrade to Lighten from Hold | Ord Minnett | ||
For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author’s and not by association FNArena’s – see disclaimer on the website)
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