WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION (WBC)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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11/08/2026

1

Buy

$45.00

26.05%

Post the first take, below and management's conference call, UBS makes some slight changes to earnings forecasts, down -14% for FY26 and FY27.

The Westpac result was largely as expected. The analyst believes it is too soon to draw conclusions around investor mortgage growth rates post the Federal Budget's change to negative gearing.

Management did note some "green shoots" with the prior week seeing a rise in application volumes. The bank suggested customers are more sensitive to interest rate expectations than the proposed tax changes.

Buy rated. Target $45.

Westpac's third quarter trading update was largely in line with UBS' expectations amid softer mortgage applications. Net interest margins edged up while the run rate on net profit is slightly below forecasts.

Interest-only investor mortgages as a percentage of the portfolio were up, which the broker suspects might reflect behavioural shifts and a lengthening duration of the book.

UBS was pleased institutional margins were higher albeit offset from competition in New Zealand. The focus is on translating volume growth into revenue momentum and earnings. Asset quality remains largely benign, UBS adds.

Buy rating and $45 target.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 208.00 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 180.00 cents and EPS of 227.00 cents.

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12/08/2026

5

Sell

$31.00

-13.17%

Jarden maintains a Sell rating for Westpac with a $31.00 target price following the release of an unaudited 3Q26 trading update.

The bank delivered cash net profit after tax of $1.8bn, representing a 2% increase versus the first-half quarter average, supported by a stable net interest margin of 1.89%.

Operating expenses rose 1% amid wage inflation and continued investment in internal architecture, while the completed sale of the RAMs business removed $15.4bn of home loans from the portfolio and released 23 basis points of core tier one capital.

The analyst commends the strategic ambition but cautions that the risks associated with executing large-scale technological transformations are not fully discounted at current valuation multiples.

The broker's estimates remain unchanged, factoring in a tougher outlook for net interest margins alongside elevated home loan competition and moderating housing credit growth.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 155.00 cents and EPS of 206.40 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 157.00 cents and EPS of 211.90 cents.