The Monday Report – 09 November 2026

This story features NEXTDC LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NXT
The company is included in ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300, ALL-ORDS and ALL-TECH

Investors rotated back into technology stocks on Friday, sending Nasdaq up, while rotating out of the relatively outperforming Dow Jones index.

Nvidia's Jensen Huang, the 'Godfather' to AI, has admitted to an affair with an alleged Chinese spy.

The Australian market finished positive last week and ASX200 futures are pointing to a positive start.

ANZ Bank is releasing its FY26 financials this morning.

World Overnight
SPI Overnight	9036.00	+ 20.00	0.22%
S&P ASX 200	9020.80	– 44.30	– 0.49%
S&P500	7376.86	+ 23.13	0.31%
Nasdaq Comp	24579.42	+ 264.43	1.09%
DJIA	51285.73	– 237.33	– 0.46%
S&P500 VIX	25.64	– 2.54	– 9.01%
US 10-year yield	4.86	+ 0.02	0.45%
USD Index	102.28	+ 0.70	0.69%
FTSE100	10673.94	– 108.72	– 1.01%
DAX30	25820.36	– 504.65	– 1.92%

Good Morning,

The Australian market slipped -44.3 points or -0.49% to 9020.8 on Friday but rose 1.27% last week led by Info Tech, up 01%, due to a 50%-plus rally in NextDC ((NXT)) shares.

The Gold index added 5.8%, followed by Comm Services, up 4.32% and Consumer Staples up 4.83%. Energy lagged, down -7.44%, as did Banks, down -0.61%.

Over the quarter to date, the ASX200 is up 2.63%, benefiting from an anti-AI kneejerk reflex, with Nasdaq Composite down -8.25% over the same period.

ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) and Dyno Nobel ((DNL)) are releasing FY26 earnings today with Ampol ((ALD)) and Viva Energy ((VEA)) holding Investor Briefings.

On Friday, Macquarie Group ((MQG)) released interim financials and James Hardie ((JHX)) issued Q3 performance metrics.

Citi on Macquarie:

“MQG reported 1H27 cash earnings of $2,478m, 5-7% ahead of Citi/VA consensus estimates. The bottom line beat was flattered by a lower than expected tax rate of 22.5% vs consensus at 27.5% and 31.4% in the pcp.

“Tax aside, the PBT was ~1.5% ahead of consensus estimates. Relative to consensus expectations, the key strength in the result was in the CGM division with NPC ~28% ahead of market estimates.

“While the commodities result was strong at $1.8bn, relative to expectations the beat was more driven by equities, specialised finance and investment income. Offsetting the strength in CGM was a weak result in MacCap, with NPC ~55% below consensus driven by essentially no investment income in the half.

“Unsurprisingly, changes to guidance statements reflect stronger CGM and weaker MacCap; however, we expect more compositional adjustments than changes to FY27 earnings given the guidance changes seem to have played out in 1H.”

RBC Capital on Breville Group ((BRG)):

“We are assuming coverage of Breville Group and upgrading to Outperform, $36.00/share PT vs $33.00 prior. Revised PT reflects earnings forecast changes and revised valuation inputs.

“Under elevated global uncertainty, we prefer quality exposure. BRG ticks those boxes through factors including 1) structural growth, 2) net cash position, and 3) less exposure to Australian consumers.

“SharkNinja’s 3Q update last week highlighted strong US momentum, and BRG’s AGM update spoke to a consumer who is still showing up despite macro headwinds and operational complexity as we head into the BF-Xmas trading period.”

For more details and to stay in touch with which companies are reporting, AGMs and going ex-dividend, check out the FNArena Calendar https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

Market Overview, J.L. Bernstein extract

Asia Sold Off, Then US Chip Stocks Bounced

Thursday’s AI sell-off hit Asia overnight, leaving Japan’s Nikkei and Taiwan’s main index at least a fifth below their highs.

South Korea’s market dropped so fast at the open that trading stopped for 20 minutes.

Back in New York, buyers returned to chip stocks, and tech led the S&P500 higher while the Dow lagged.

Bank of America says AI hardware stocks fell because investors are paying less for the same profits.

Hiring Came In Much Stronger Than Expected

Employers added 165,000 jobs in October, and the unemployment rate ticked down when economists expected it to hold.

The government also added a combined 84,000 jobs to its counts for August and September.

The economy only needs about 30,000 new jobs a month to keep the job market steady.

The jobless rate may be the better signal, since a counting change this year can make monthly job numbers swing more.

Microsoft Is Cutting Back on Rented AI Computing

Microsoft $MSFT has been turning off computing power it rented from Oracle $ORCL after letting a contract lapse, Bloomberg reported.

CNBC adds Microsoft plans to use fewer neoclouds, smaller companies that rent out AI computing, and build more of its own.

Those reports kept a lid on the day’s rebound.

Gartner predicted in October that as many as four in five neoclouds could stop operating on their own by 2030.

ANZ Bank, Australian Morning Focus, extract

US equity markets were higher on Friday night, as the selloff in technology stocks abated.

The S&P500 closed up 0.3% and the Nasdaq up 1.1%, though the Dow was down -0.5%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 and FTSE 100 both fell -1.0%.

The US 10y yield rose 2.5bp to 4.86%. WTI fell to USD90.8/bbl, while gold was at USD4,071/oz.

Pressure on the Fed to hike. October’s US employment report added to growing evidence that the FOMC cannot afford to be complacent about the risk of demand-pull inflation.

Since its October meeting, when it kept policy settings unchanged, Q3 GDP data have revealed robust domestic demand and a broadening of the capex cycle, while September’s PCE data confirmed that inflation has reaccelerated in recent months.

October’s employment report and revisions to prior months now suggest that growth momentum is feeding through to a strengthening labour market, with early signs that wage growth may also be beginning to reaccelerate.

This week’s October CPI report is now in focus for any evidence that underlying inflation pressures are broadening. The strength of the real economy has, however, been overshadowed in recent days by the market’s reassessment of the AI investment outlook following the midterm election results and the increased prospect of regulatory constraints.

Those concerns are valid, but a meaningful slowdown in the AI buildout appears unlikely over the horizon relevant for monetary policy, given that the vast majority of capex planned for the coming year has already been approved and committed.

New Zealand election inconclusive.

With the preliminary count producing a finely balanced outcome, the next step is to wait three weeks for the official results, including the count of roughly 400,000 special votes.

Of those, about a quarter were cast by people voting from offshore.

Bull/Bear report, Lance Roberts, extract

Thursday did real technical damage. The S&P500 closed Friday at 7,376.86, below its 20-day (7,658), 50-day (7,679) and 100-day (7,619) moving averages.

It’s holding just 0.7% above the 200-day average at 7,325. The 14-day RSI sits at 35 after touching 33.5 on Thursday, and MACD has rolled into a sell signal at -61 points against a signal line of -27.

Here’s where the “buy the dip” crowd has some hope. Following the post-midterm election rally, Thursday’s close pushed the market -3.1 standard deviations below the 20-day average.

The problem is that our own rules have already spoken. On Monday, we said a close below 7,490 meant tightening stops and raising cash. On Wednesday, in “Oracle Sells Cheap Stock As Its Debt Window Narrows”, we said that a decisive close below US$169 in the technology ETF (XLK) would have prompted us to step aside from new tech buying.

XLK closed Friday at US$164.74, -3.2% below its own 200-day average. While both triggers fired, that doesn’t mean we are selling everything. It means the growth tranches we laid out last week are on hold until the trend repairs.

Sector breadth explains why the index held up as well as it did. Seven of eleven sectors are trading well above their 50-day averages relative to the S&P500, led by Health Care (10.6 points), Staples (9.9), and Discretionary (7.7).

Technology sits -8.6 points below with an RSI of 29, and semiconductors are -18% under their 50-day.

As we discussed Thursday, Health Care is more than 15% above its 200-day average, a stretch seen only twice since 2005. The defensive trade is now as crowded as tech was in October.

That cuts both ways.

Oversold tech is where any rebound has to come from, while stretched defensives are where the next round of selling may start. That is an extreme that rarely lasts.

On Friday, we found 27 prior cases since 1950 when the index stretched this far below its 20-day average while holding above its 200-day average. One month later, the market was higher 23 times, with a median gain of 2.4%.

In other words, oversold readings with an intact 200-day average have historically produced a bounce rather than a crash.

Pay close attention to Friday’s market action, as it is likely more important than you think. The index opened near 7,378, rallied to 7,444, and gave it all back into the close.

Sellers are still leaning on every bounce. Use any rally toward the 7,620 to 7,680 cluster, where the 100-, 20-, and 50-day averages converge, to trim laggards, rebalance the defensive winners that have run too far, and rebuild cash.

So what does that mean for next week?

Start by holding core positions at target weights, but don’t aggressively add more exposure yet. If the 200-day average holds and semiconductors reverse, the advice to add exposure in small tranches resumes.

However, a decisive close below 7,316, July’s swing low, opens the door to 7,200. That violation would shift our process toward the 2018 playbook of raising cash and hedging portfolios more aggressively.

Support levels for the market matter most next week, and the 200-day average at 7,325 is crucial. If the market can hold that key support, then this past week looks like a violent correction inside a bull market.

Lose it, and the conversation changes from “how high” to “how much cash.”

US Markets Call: S&P 500 Valuation Dives As Earnings Soar, Ed Yardeni & Toby Hearst, Yardeni QuickTakes, extract

The stock market dived last week. Investors priced in political backlash against data centers after Democrats swept Congress.

We anticipated buying opportunities after the midterm elections, and Thursday’s selloff delivered some. This remains an earnings-led bull market. Valuations are falling while earnings are soaring.

We still view the AI backlash as another speed bump, not a roadblock. We are sticking with our 7,900 year-end target for the S&P500.

I. Performance

The Nasdaq entered correction territory on Thursday and closed the week below its 200-day moving average. It has done this before recently.

It rebounded sharply after its Spring 2025 “Liberation Day” plunge and again after the Iran war started earlier this year, quickly resuming its uptrend both times.

The equal-weight S&P500 is holding up remarkably well. It remains near its recent record high and above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

The damage has been concentrated in the AI trade, not the broader market.

The Magnificent-7 are underperforming again. The MAGS ETF is up only 2.4% ytd, versus 7.8% for the S&P 500. The Impressive-493 also took a hit this week.

The XMAGS ETF includes Micron and the other semiconductor stocks hit hardest in the selloff. It is still up 10.0% ytd.

Dow Theory remains bullish. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is holding up well near its highs.

The Transports have lagged. They should improve if oil prices continue to fall.

II. Earnings

Earnings season picked up this week. The blended Q3 S&P500 EPS growth estimate (i.e., actual results for companies that have reported, estimates for those that haven’t yet) rose to 25.9% y/y from 23.8% a week earlier, helped by AMD’s solid results. Q4’s estimate edged down to 29.7%.

As we noted previously, Q2’s 50.4% y/y EPS growth rate was boosted by mark-to-market gains at Alphabet and Amazon. Excluding those, growth was closer to 25%, which is still very strong.

Forward earnings rose to a record US$418.25. It is converging on the 2027 estimate of US$426.28, which continues to climb. Analysts’ 2028 consensus S&P500 EPS estimate rose to US$495.14; it’s been closing in on US$500—which is our target for 2030!

We are bullish, but not as bullish as the analysts. The drop in the forward P/E this year suggests that investors also believe analysts are too bullish on earnings.

Forward earnings for the S&P500, S&P400, and S&P600 all rose to record highs again last week. Earnings strength remains broad.

S&P500 forward revenues per share is up 15.9% y/y, while forward earnings per share is up 39.0% y/y.

III. Valuation

The S&P 500 forward P/E fell to 17.6 last week, below the 2025 Liberation Day low.

P/E plunges typically accompany corrections and recessions. The economy shows no sign of a recession anytime soon.

Investors instead fear irrational exuberance in earnings forecasts.

Since the bull market began on October 12, 2022, the S&P500 has risen 106.2%. Forward earnings is up 75.5%, while the forward P/E is up 22.5%.

The P/E and E both drove the rally until the forward P/E peaked in October last year. Since then, E has done all the work.

Investors are finding it harder to predict the return on all the AI capital spending. They won’t pay an excessive multiple given that uncertainty.

The S&P500 Semiconductors industry accounts for much of the P/E drop. The industry index’s forward P/E has plunged to 13.1, well below the S&P 500’s.

Semis are now cheaper than they were during the 2022 bear market.

IV. Fixed Income

The futures market expects about two rate hikes over the next 12 months. That explains why the 2-year Treasury yield remains well above the 3.88% federal funds rate, even after easing to 4.46% following the midterms.

The 10-year Treasury yield continues to fall. It dropped to 4.84% and is testing its uptrend line from last year’s low . We’ll see if it bounces. Either way, it is back in the 4.00%-5.00% “old normal” range where we feel comfortable.

The 10-year TIPS yield fell to 2.62%. The yield spread between the 10-year Treasury and TIPS, a widely used proxy for expected inflation, eased to 2.22%.

That proxy tends to move with oil prices. The recent drop in crude showed up here.

V. Commodities

The price of Brent crude oil fell to US$98.32 a barrel in recent days. No news of the re-escalation of the war in the Middle East has emerged since the midterms.

Hopes for a US-Iran deal are reflected in the oil market. We still see a risk of re-escalation.

Nearby gasoline futures dropped to US$2.78 a gallon last week. If sustained, that should start to show up as lower inflation in a couple of months.

Renewed fighting in the Middle East would reverse that.

Steel prices show no sign of a slowdown in data center construction. US Midwest hot-rolled coil rose to US$1,357 a ton, the highest since 2022.

Agricultural prices have eased. The S&P GSCI Agriculture Spot index fell to 376.77 last week. Fears of a food price spike should subside.

Corporate news in Australia:

• Mayne Pharma ((MYX)) enters a binding $55.5m all-share agreement to divest its international operations to WA-based Evaris Pharma, completing its strategic shift towards US specialty pharmaceuticals
• Warburg Pincus raises its takeover offer for Ingenia Communities ((INA)) to $5.60 cash per share, seeking to displace rival bidder AVID, subject to due diligence and matching rights
• Boyu Capital enters exclusive negotiations to acquire Blackstone-owned Nucleus Network after Bain Capital withdraws from the auction, with the Australian clinical trials provider forecasting EBITDA of up to $90m
• NextDC ((NXT)) faces concerns over potential Amazon contract withdrawals following M3 Melbourne data centre delays, fuelling takeover speculation involving Goodman Group ((GMG)), Digital Realty, Brookfield and Blackstone
• Hanwha faces competition from Wildcat Infrastructure for Austal USA, with Wildcat’s indicative US$1.25bn–US$1.35bn offer exceeding Hanwha’s US$1.05bn–US$1.2bn proposal
• SeaRoad Logistics appoints PwC to advise on a potential sale of the Australian shipping and transport business for up to $500m, representing around 10x annual EBITDA of $50m
• UPS moves towards exclusive negotiations to acquire Riverside-owned Smartways Logistics for approximately $600m
• PEP and Brookfield-owned Intellihub acquires Sydney-based Taggle, expanding into water metering beyond its core electricity metering operations
• Gordon Legal investigates a potential class action against NextDC ((NXT)) over alleged disclosure failures surrounding M3 delays and the company’s October earnings downgrade, including during the September $1.1bn convertible notes raising
• Victor Smorgon Group-backed Partnership Capital deploys $40m in equity across its first three acquisitions during its first year of operations
• AirTrunk abandons its proposed 140MW Lane Cove data centre, citing technical limitations, and shifts its development focus to larger projects at Kurri Kurri and Mickleham
• Gerry Harvey increases his stake in Pacific Lime and Cement ((PLA)) through an oversubscribed $50m capital raising, exceeding the original $40m target
• Potentia Capital explores strategic options for Nitro Software, acquired and taken private in 2023 at a $550m valuation, potentially paving the way for an exit
• Firmus seeks up to $3bn in private funding from Nvidia and spends $12.5m acquiring additional South Australian land for its proposed 1GW AI factory

On the calendar today:

-CH Oct CPI

-CH Oct PPI

-US Sep Wholesale inventories (final)

-AMPOL LIMITED ((ALD)) investor briefing

-ANSELL LIMITED ((ANN)) AGM

-ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((ANZ)) FY26 earnings report

-CLIME CAPITAL LIMITED ((CAM)) ex-div 0.50c (50%)

-DYNO NOBEL LIMITED ((DNL)) FY26 earnings report

-FUTURE GENERATION AUSTRALIA LIMITED ((FGX)) ex-div 3.80c (100%)

-PROPEL FUNERAL PARTNERS LIMITED ((PFP)) AGM

-VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED ((VEA)) investor briefing

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures
Gold (oz)	4070.41	– 26.75	– 0.65%
Silver (oz)	51.88	– 0.12	– 0.23%
Copper (lb)	6.22	+ 0.04	0.65%
Aluminium (lb)	1.41	– 0.01	– 0.58%
Nickel (lb)	7.30	+ 0.29	4.08%
Zinc (lb)	1.71	– 0.05	– 3.00%
West Texas Crude	90.83	+ 0.10	0.11%
Brent Crude	98.32	– 0.20	– 0.20%
Iron Ore (t)	92.70	– 0.42	– 0.45%

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

Index	06 Nov 2026	Week To Date	Month To Date (Nov)	Quarter To Date (Oct-Dec)	Year To Date (2026)
S&P ASX 200 (ex-div)	9020.80	1.27%	1.27%	2.63%	3.52%

BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS
4DX	4DMedical	Upgrade to Hold from Sell	Ord Minnett
ASX	ASX	Downgrade to Neutral from Buy	UBS
CIP	Centuria Industrial REIT	Downgrade to Neutral from Buy	UBS
CSC	Capstone Copper	Upgrade to Buy from Hold	Ord Minnett
CSL	CSL	Downgrade to Hold from Buy	Morgans
DYL	Deep Yellow	Downgrade to Speculative Buy from Buy	Ord Minnett
GMG	Goodman Group	Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate	Morgans
NXT	NextDC	Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy	Morgans
REA	REA Group	Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy	Morgans
RFF	Rural Funds	Downgrade to Neutral from Buy	UBS
TTX	Tetratherix	Upgrade to Lighten from Sell	Ord Minnett
WDS	Woodside Energy	Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold	Ord Minnett

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author’s and not by association FNArena’s – see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts on the website and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: “Your Feedback (Thank You)” – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com

FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms