VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED (VEA)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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VEA - VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Crude Oil

Year End: December

GICS Industry Group : Energy

Debt/EBITDA: 7.44

Index: ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Viva Energy is an Australian oil refiner and supplier of fuel and related products through petrol stations under the Shell and Viva Energy brands. It owns and operates the Geelong Refinery in Victoria. It was listed in 2018 following restructure of Viva Energy Holdings.

LAST PRICE	CHANGE +/-	CHANGE %	VOLUME
$1.78 25 Mar 2025	-0.010 OPEN $1.80	-0.56% HIGH $1.83	3,697,728 LOW $1.78

TARGET

$3.09

73.6% upside

Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%

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FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS

Title	FY23 Actual	FY24 Actual	FY25 Forecast	FY26 Forecast
EPS (cps)	xxx	- 4.8	13.4	xxx
DPS (cps)	xxx	10.6	7.5	xxx
EPS Growth	xxx	N/A	N/A	xxx
DPS Growth	xxx	- 32.2%	- 29.0%	xxx
PE Ratio	xxx	N/A	13.4	xxx
Dividend Yield	xxx	N/A	4.2%	xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%)	xxx	N/A	56.0%	xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 4.58%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 09/09 - ex-div 6.7c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD

Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved

Title	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
EPS Basic	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	-4.8
DPS All	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	10.6
Sales/Revenue	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	30,142.0 M
Book Value Per Share	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	119.3
Net Operating Cash Flow	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	598.4 M
Net Profit Margin	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	-0.25 %

EPS Basic

Negative
Growth
Slowing

DPS All

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Sales/Revenue

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Book Value Per Share

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Net Operating Cash Flow

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Net Profit Margin

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Title	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Return on Capital Employed	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	-3.91 %
Return on Invested Capital	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	-1.28 %
Return on Assets	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	-0.70 %
Return on Equity	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	-3.91 %
Return on Total Capital	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	2.74 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	-205.8 M

Return on Capital Employed

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Return on Invested Capital

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Return on Assets

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Return on Equity

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Return on Total Capital

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Title	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Short-Term Debt	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	273 M
Long Term Debt	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	5,259 M
Total Debt	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	5,533 M
Goodwill - Gross	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	1,116 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	193 M
Price To Book Value	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	2.20

Short-Term Debt

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Long Term Debt

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Total Debt

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Goodwill - Gross

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Price To Book Value

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Title	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Capex	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	588.1 M
Capex % of Sales	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	1.95 %
Cost of Goods Sold	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	28,607 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	1,365 M
Research & Development	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	-
Investments - Total	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	24 M

Capex

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Capex % of Sales

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Cost of Goods Sold

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Research & Development

Investments - Total

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Negative

Growth

Slowing

EXPERT VIEWS
EXTRA COVERAGE

EXPERT VIEWS

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Sentiment Indicator

0.8

No. Of Recommendations

BROKER	DATE	RATING	RECOMMENDATION	TARGET PRICE	% TO REACH TARGET	COMMENTARY
Ord Minnett	xx/xx/xxxx	1	xxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial
Macquarie	xx/xx/xxxx	1	xxxxxxxxxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial
UBS	26/02/2025	1	Buy	$3.10	74.16%	UBS highlights Viva Energy’s 2024 underlying NPAT was in line, but the final dividend was slightly weaker, implying a 66% payout of group net profit. The broker notes the key focus was the Convenience & Mobility (C&M) segment, where 1H25 EBITDA guidance missed consensus by -26%, though 2H 2025 was in line with estimates. The broker points OTR conversions showed early success, with three of four initial sites performing well. Higher conversion costs and a longer rollout timeline were confirmed, though UBS maintains a positive outlook for long-term EBITDA growth. UBS cuts 2025 EPS by -35%, reducing C&M EBITDA by -$80m for 1H. 2026 EPS forecast falls by -3, reflecting modestly weaker C&M and Commercial & Industrial (C&I) performance and higher interest costs. The price target is lowered to $3.10 from $3.20. Buy rating retained. FORECAST UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents. UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
Morgan Stanley	xx/xx/xxxx	3	xxxxx-xxxxxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial

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EXTRA COVERAGE

Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER	DATE	RATING	RECOMMENDATION	TARGET PRICE	% TO REACH TARGET	COMMENTARY
Goldman Sachs	04/03/2025	1	Buy	$3.05	71.35%	Goldman Sachs notes Viva Energy's 2024 earnings (EBITDA) was in line, but underlying net profit after tax was below estimates by -7% due to higher depreciation and finance costs. The implied 2025 guidance for C&M and C&I segments is -9% below prior estimates. Retail fuel margins fell -3c/L year-on-year in early 2025, impacting earnings by -$18m. The analysts note the company faces continued headwinds from declining tobacco sales and operating costs in Convenience. Management expects $105m in 2H25 earnings improvements from cost synergies, Liberty Convenience, and new cost reductions, with further gains into FY26-27. The broker lowers 2025/2026 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -10%/-3% and reduces the target price by -6% to $3.05. Buy. FORECAST Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 11.00 cents. Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 19.00 cents.

BROKER

DATE

RATING

RECOMMENDATION

TARGET PRICE

% TO REACH TARGET

COMMENTARY

Goldman Sachs

04/03/2025

Buy

$3.05

71.35%

Goldman Sachs notes Viva Energy's 2024 earnings (EBITDA) was in line, but underlying net profit after tax was below estimates by -7% due to higher depreciation and finance costs.

The implied 2025 guidance for C&M and C&I segments is -9% below prior estimates.

Retail fuel margins fell -3c/L year-on-year in early 2025, impacting earnings by -$18m. The analysts note the company faces continued headwinds from declining tobacco sales and operating costs in Convenience.

Management expects $105m in 2H25 earnings improvements from cost synergies, Liberty Convenience, and new cost reductions, with further gains into FY26-27.

The broker lowers 2025/2026 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -10%/-3% and reduces the target price by -6% to $3.05. Buy.

FORECAST
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 11.00 cents.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 19.00 cents.

Access Extra Coverage Research History >

VEA STOCK CHART

FNArena News on VEA

1	Rudi’s View: February’s Reality Check Mar 05 2025 - Rudi's View

2	Australian Broker Call Extra Edition – Mar 04, 2025 Mar 04 2025 - Daily Market Reports

3	FNArena Corporate Results Monitor – 27-02-2025 Feb 27 2025 - Australia

4	Rudi’s View: Best Ideas & Conviction Calls Feb 20 2025 - Rudi's View

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Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :	5.91
Estimated Dividend Growth (Average Of Past Three Years)	%
Amount Invested	$
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VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED (VEA)
Share Price Analysis and Chart