VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED (VEA)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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VEA

VEA - VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Crude Oil
Year End: December
GICS Industry Group : Energy
Debt/EBITDA: 4.35
Index: ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Viva Energy is an Australian oil refiner and supplier of fuel and related products through petrol stations under the Shell and Viva Energy brands. It owns and operates the Geelong Refinery in Victoria. It was listed in 2018 following restructure of Viva Energy Holdings.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$2.43

20 Feb
2025

0.010

OPEN

$2.40

0.41%

HIGH

$2.43

2,912,457

LOW

$2.39

TARGET
$3.363 38.4% upside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
AEL . ALD . BHP . BPT . BRU . CRD . CVN . FAR . HE8 . HZN . KAR . MAY .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
VEA: 1
Title FY22
Actual		 FY23
Actual		 FY24
Forecast		 FY25
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 0.3 17.8 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 15.6 11.6 xxx
EPS Growth xxx - 99.2% 100.0% xxx
DPS Growth xxx - 42.2% - 25.4% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 13.7 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 4.8% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx 6240.0% 65.5% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 6.39%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 6.39

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 09/09 - ex-div 6.7c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201820192020202120222023
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.3
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.6
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx26,741.1 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx130.8
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx674.3 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.01 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201820192020202120222023
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.17 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.08 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.04 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.17 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4.93 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-154.9 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201820192020202120222023
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx207 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,789 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,995 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx380 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx216 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2.67

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201820192020202120222023
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx492.7 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.84 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx25,399 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,100 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx23 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.8

No. Of Recommendations

4
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Morgan Stanley

29/01/2025

3

Equal-weight

$3.25

33.74%

Given a similar update by Ampol ((ALD)) on January 23, Morgan Stanley is expecting a muted sharemarket reaction to Viva Energy's 4Q update.

The Geelong refining margin of US$6.70/bbl fell short of the broker and consensus forecasts for US$9.00/bbl and US$7.92/bbl, respectively, due to unplanned outages and delay in arrivals reducing the overall intake, explains the broker.

The group's unaudited earnings EBITDA (replacement cost) of around $750m missed forecasts by the analysts and consensus by -11% and -9%, respectively, due to weak refining and fuel margins.

The Geelong refinery has restarted after another unplanned outage in early January.

Target $3.25. Equal-weight. Sector call In-Line.

FORECAST
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.40 cents and EPS of 20.60 cents.
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.80 cents and EPS of 21.30 cents.

Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

1

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Goldman Sachs

29/01/2025

1

Buy

$3.25

33.74%

Goldman Sachs describes Viva Energy Group's 2024 performance as soft, with unaudited earnings (EBITDA) of $750m, -4% below the broker's estimate and -12% under consensus, impacted by higher operating expenses at the Geelong refinery.

Geelong's 4Q earnings were affected by unplanned maintenance, while Convenience and Mobility earnings are expected at the lower end of guidance, driven by weaker tobacco sales.

More positively, Commercial and Industrial segments achieved record quarterly sales, supporting medium-term growth prospects, suggest the analysts.

The broker revises 2024-2026 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts downwards by -5% to -9%, reflecting both elevated costs at Geelong and a refinery turnaround in 2025.

Goldman Sachs lowers the target price to $3.25 from $3.35 and retains a Buy rating, citing defensive refining margins and cost reduction initiatives as key growth drivers.

FORECAST
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

VEA STOCK CHART

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