AMPOL LIMITED (ALD)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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ALD

ALD - AMPOL LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Consumer Products & Services
Year End: December
GICS Industry Group : Energy
Debt/EBITDA: 6.27
Index: ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Ampol (previously branded as Caltex Australia) is an Australian petroleum company first incorporated in 1936 in New South Wales. The company first listed on the ASX in 1948.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$26.51

28 Feb
2025

-0.040

OPEN

$26.20

-0.15%

HIGH

$26.72

1,559,920

LOW

$26.10

TARGET
$31.213 17.7% upside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
PFP . WES .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
ALD: 1
Title FY23
Actual		 FY24
Actual		 FY25
Forecast		 FY26
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 51.4 191.3 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 65.0 103.0 xxx
EPS Growth xxx - 77.7% 100.0% xxx
DPS Growth xxx - 76.4% 58.5% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 14.0 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 3.8% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx 126.4% 53.8% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 2.12%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 2.42

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 30/08 - ex-div 60c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201920202021202220232024
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx51.4
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx65.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx34,540.2 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,327.4
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx893.5 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.35 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201920202021202220232024
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3.64 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.79 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.92 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3.64 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2.17 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-337.9 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201920202021202220232024
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx520 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,557 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4,077 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx682 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx124 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2.12

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201920202021202220232024
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx685.6 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.98 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx32,629 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,745 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx473 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.8

No. Of Recommendations

4
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxxxxxx xx xxx xxxx xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxxxxxx xx xxxxxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Morgan Stanley

25/02/2025

3

Equal-weight

$31.00

16.94%

Ampol's second half results were in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations, with group replacement cost operating profit (RCOP) earnings (EBITDA) at $1,199m, down -32% year-on-year.

Lytton refinery replacement cost operating profit (RCOP) earnings (EBIT) fell to $42m from $362m in the prior period, highlight the analysts, though management pointed to improving crack spreads in early 2025.

Convenience Retail RCOP earnings rose 1% year-on-year to $357m, supported by stable basket sizes and fuel margins, explains the broker.

Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating with a $31.00 target price, citing near-term cost reductions of -$50m and expected commissioning of ultra-low sulphur fuel production by late 2025. Equal-weight. Sector call In-Line.

FORECAST
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 216.00 cents.
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 228.00 cents.

Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

1

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Goldman Sachs

03/03/2025

1

Buy

$31.70

19.58%

Goldman Sachs notes Ampol posted 2024 underlying EBITDA that was in line with expectations, with key topline results delivered in the January quarterly update.

The five cents final dividend was a surprise, given the broker expected debt reduction would be prioritised and asserts, in turn, this reflects confidence in the outlook for 2025 earnings.

The company plans to deliver a -$50m cost reduction target over 2025, lowering demurrage costs and consolidating technology costs across the business. Target edges down to $31.70 from $32.00. Buy rating retained.

FORECAST
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 102.00 cents.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 220.00 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

ALD STOCK CHART

FNArena News on ALD

1
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Mar 03, 2025

12:02 PM - Daily Market Reports
2
Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 28-02-25

10:00 AM - Weekly Reports
3
FNArena Corporate Results Monitor – 25-02-2025

Feb 25 2025 - Australia
4
In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 21-02-25

Feb 21 2025 - Weekly Reports
5
Rudi’s View: Best Ideas & Conviction Calls

Feb 20 2025 - Rudi's View

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