AMPOL LIMITED (ALD)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

Enter the company code or Name for stock analysis:

ALD

ALD - AMPOL LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Consumer Products & Services
Year End: December
GICS Industry Group : Energy
Debt/EBITDA: 6.27
Index: ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Ampol (previously branded as Caltex Australia) is an Australian petroleum company first incorporated in 1936 in New South Wales. The company first listed on the ASX in 1948.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$23.40

01 Apr
2025

-0.020

OPEN

$23.45

-0.09%

HIGH

$23.83

939,189

LOW

$23.28

TARGET
$30.85 31.8% upside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
PFP . WES .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
ALD: 1
Title FY23
Actual		 FY24
Actual		 FY25
Forecast		 FY26
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 51.4 187.3 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 65.0 100.0 xxx
EPS Growth xxx - 77.7% 100.0% xxx
DPS Growth xxx - 76.4% 53.8% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 12.4 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 4.3% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx 126.4% 53.4% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 2.13%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 2.80

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 30/08 - ex-div 60c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201920202021202220232024
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx51.4
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx65.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx34,540.2 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,327.4
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx893.5 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.35 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201920202021202220232024
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3.64 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.79 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.92 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3.64 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2.17 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-337.9 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201920202021202220232024
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx520 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,557 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4,077 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx682 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx124 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2.12

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201920202021202220232024
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx685.6 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.98 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx32,629 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,745 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx473 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.8

No. Of Recommendations

4
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial

Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial

UBS

27/02/2025

1

Upgrade to Buy from Neutral

$31.40

34.19%

UBS upgrades Ampol to Buy from Neutral, expecting EBIT growth across all divisions over the next two years.

The stock trades at 8.3x 2026 EBIT, a -19% discount to its five-year average. UBS forecasts 22% EBIT CAGR from 2024–26, driven by refining recovery, improved Lytton reliability, and consumer sentiment uplift.

2024 NPAT was in line, but net debt/EBITDA spiked to 2.6x. The final dividend payout was cut to 66% of NPAT to maintain balance sheet flexibility. UBS expects leverage to normalise within target by 2025–26, enabling higher payouts.

The analyst notes Convenience Retail remains resilient, benefiting from investment in premium sites and food offerings.

UBS cuts 2025–26 EPS estimates by -1% to -6% due to higher interest costs and weaker Z Energy & Fuels & Infrastructure trading.

Target rises to $31.40 from $31.25.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 96.00 cents and EPS of 161.00 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 141.00 cents and EPS of 202.00 cents.

Morgan Stanley

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxx-xxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial
Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

1

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Goldman Sachs

27/03/2025

1

Buy

$31.30

33.76%

Ampol flagged a -$35m cost impact to repair a damaged crude storage tank at the Lytton refinery due to Cyclone Alfred in addition to demurrage costs. The company expects to recover half the costs via insurance.

Goldman Sachs notes this and the lower refining margin due to a reduction in throughput ahead of the cyclone making landfall.

This resulted in -4% decline in the broker's FY25 EBITDA forecast and a cut in target price to $31.30 from 32.00. Buy maintained.

FORECAST
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 89.00 cents.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 158.00 cents and EPS of 218.00 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

ALD STOCK CHART

FNArena News on ALD

1
Next Week At A Glance – 31 Mar – 4 April, 2025

Mar 28 2025 - Weekly Reports
2
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Mar 27, 2025

Mar 27 2025 - Daily Market Reports
3
Rudi’s View: To Sell Or Not To Sell

Mar 06 2025 - Rudi's View
4
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Mar 03, 2025

Mar 03 2025 - Daily Market Reports
5
Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 28-02-25

Mar 03 2025 - Weekly Reports

Latest Consumer Products & Services News

1
Bunnings Seeks To Expand Its Dominance

Mar 31 2025 - Australia
2
Plenty Of Ambition At Myer & Premier

Mar 26 2025 - Australia
3
Affordable Opportunity In Aspen Group

Mar 25 2025 - Small Caps
4
Sighs Of Relief Post Supermarkets Inquiry

Mar 24 2025 - Australia
5
Risk Off Puts Supermarkets In Focus

Mar 19 2025 - Australia
6
Eagers: Peer Outperformance & Margin Upside

Mar 14 2025 - Small Caps
7
Propel Funeral Partners: Defence (& Offense) In Volatile Times

Mar 12 2025 - Small Caps
8
Corporate Travel Eyes Strong Growth Rebound

Mar 07 2025 - Small Caps
9
Is SiteMinder’s Re-Rating Just A Matter of Time?

Mar 06 2025 - Small Caps
10
TPG Telecom Pins Hopes On 2025

Mar 06 2025 - Small Caps