AMPOL LIMITED (ALD)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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ALD - AMPOL LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Consumer Products & Services
Year End: December
GICS Industry Group : Energy
Debt/EBITDA: 2.95
Index: ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Ampol (previously branded as Caltex Australia) is an Australian petroleum company first incorporated in 1936 in New South Wales. The company first listed on the ASX in 1948.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$29.01

22 Nov
2024

0.370

OPEN

$29.01

1.29%

HIGH

$29.49

1,945,952

LOW

$28.85

TARGET
$32.963 13.6% upside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
PFP . WES .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
ALD: 1
Title FY22
Actual		 FY23
Actual		 FY24
Forecast		 FY25
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 230.4 143.3 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 275.0 97.7 xxx
EPS Growth xxx - 27.5% - 37.8% xxx
DPS Growth xxx 0.0% - 64.5% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 20.2 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 3.4% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx 119.3% 68.2% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 8.98%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 9.48

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 30/08 - ex-div 60c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2024 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201820192020202120222023
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx230.4
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx275.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx37,454.5 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,493.5
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,504.0 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.47 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201820192020202120222023
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.27 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8.02 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4.13 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.27 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx10.36 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx381.1 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201820192020202120222023
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx296 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,399 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,695 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx688 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx301 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2.42

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201820192020202120222023
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx539.3 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.44 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx35,014 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,647 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx311 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.5

No. Of Recommendations

4
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Login above or Get a Free Trial

Morgan Stanley

16/10/2024

3

Equal-weight

$33.00

13.75%

Morgan Stanley is expecting a "negative" reaction to Ampol's 3Q24 trading update. The Lytton refiner margin of US$1.48/bbl fell -83% on the previous quarter which the broker highlights is well below forecasts and consensus. There was a corresponding -$100m impact to EBIT.

Looking to 4Q24, the company is planning on reduced refining due to availability of the catalytic cracking unit. Convenience and NZ businesses are in line with 1H24 and management are seeking to extract -$50m in costs in 2025.

No change to $33 target price. Equal-weight. Sector call In-Line.

FORECAST
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 124.00 cents and EPS of 189.00 cents.
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 156.00 cents and EPS of 222.00 cents.

Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial
Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

1

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Goldman Sachs

16/10/2024

3

Neutral

$32.30

11.34%

Goldman Sachs observes a much lower than expected Lytton gross profit in 3Q24 compared to expectations, resulting from extended maintenance on the catalytic cracker.

The analyst points to the extended downtime as the reason for a gross margin of only US$1.48/bbl.

Capex is expected to decline by -$50m in 2025. 

Target declines -2% to $32.30. Neutral rating with a preference for Viva Energy Group ((VEA)). 

FORECAST
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 114.00 cents.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 114.00 cents and EPS of 165.00 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

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