Weekly Reports | Jan 20 2026
This story features PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
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The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
The uranium sector is off to a cracking start in 2026 with rising U308 spot prices and ongoing contracting cycle renewal supporting equity fundamentals.
- Utility contracting remains thin, particularly beyond the early 2030s
- Spot and term prices are providing clearer incentives for new supply
- Developers offer leverage as floor prices lift, while producers face execution scrutiny
- Elevated short interest may amplify price moves if fundamentals improve
By Danielle Ecuyer
Welcome back to FNArena’s weekly uranium update, with 2026 moving off to a flying start, not only with rising physical U308 and uranium equity prices, but also with several brokers dusting off their most constructive outlooks for the sector.
2026 is shaping up to be constructive for the uranium sector
Three forces are shaping the uranium market outlook for 2026:
- utility contracting remains structurally thin,
- inventories are tighter than headline supply-demand balances suggest,
- and price signals are finally lifting to levels capable of supporting new supply.
RBC Capital saw the December quarter of 2025 as evidence of structural tightening playing out in the physical market, with the term price reaching US$86.5/lb at year end, the highest level since 2008.
Utility contracting reached around 78mlbs over the year, which suggests, according to the RBC analyst, volumes remain “thin” and well below the 120mlbs contracted in 2024. Bell Potter similarly estimates contracting declined to around 75mlbs over 2025, representing a fall of -40% on the prior year.
Bell Potter notes expectations for a stronger contracting year in 2025 were undermined by net reactor closures of one, with four reactors disconnected, three in Belgium and one in Taiwan, offset by new additions in India, China and Russia.
RBC highlights US utilities accounted for circa 60% of contracting activity, with coverage concentrated in the early 2030s and materially reduced coverage post 2035.
Looking ahead to 2026, RBC envisages renewed momentum in the contracting cycle as utilities seek to address their “thin coverage” for the 2030s. This shift is already being reflected in spot pricing, which moved into the low US$80/lb range.
This price support is viewed as indicative of utilities’ growing willingness to accept higher prices to secure early-to-mid 2030s supply.
Bell Potter emphasises contracting volumes remain materially below annual consumption and replacement rates, with estimated inventory coverage at around 2.6 years in Europe and 2.3 years in North America.
Financial buyers are estimated to have increased U308 holdings by around 12.6mlbs in 2025, with Sprott adding approximately 7.8mlbs, Yellow Cake around 1.3mlbs, and hedge funds roughly 4.5mlbs, with September the most active month.
Importantly, Bell Potter argues rising utility demand and constrained supply are underpinning price stability, rather than purely speculative financial flows.
Turning to RBC’s longer-term outlook, the U308 market is expected to remain broadly balanced until the end of the decade. From 2030, a structural deficit is expected to emerge and expand through the mid-2030s, reaching a deficit of more than -40mlbs by 2040.
As was evident in 2025, term prices have yet to rise sufficiently to incentivise widespread new greenfield project development.
Bell Potter estimates a net primary supply deficit of around -5mlbs in 2026, based on reactor demand growing 4% y/y to 190mlbs and supply rising 8.6% y/y to approximately 185mlbs. Incremental supply is expected from Kazatomprom, up 10mlbs, Paladin Energy ((PDN)), up 1.3mlbs, and Lotus Resources ((LOT)), up 1.5mlbs, offset by lower forecast production from Boss Energy ((BOE)) and Cameco.
On the demand side, 73 reactors are currently under construction globally, representing around 80GW of capacity and approximately 44mlbs of annual U308 demand. More than 50% of this new capacity is located in China.
Bell Potter has reduced its near-term U308 spot price forecast by -20% to US$92.5/lb in 2026 from US$115/lb, and lowered its 2027 forecast to US$115/lb from US$120/lb. In contrast, the broker lifted its 2028 spot price forecast by 5% to US$102.5/lb and raised its long-term price estimate by 6% to US$90/lb from US$80/lb.
RBC believes up to 15 new reactors, representing more than 15GW, could come online in 2026, with no confirmed reactor closures currently flagged, potentially marking the largest net increase in reactor capacity in decades.
Macquarie expects term prices to rise further through 2025 as utilities seek to underpin future supply.
This analyst anticipates U308 prices will remain “elevated” through 2026, with spot prices potentially range-bound while term prices drive equity valuations.
Higher floor prices would assist in incentivising greenfield developments, including Deep Yellow’s ((DYL)) and Bannerman Energy’s ((BMN)) projects in Namibia.
Canaccord Genuity noted term volumes rose around 72mlbs over the December quarter, finishing the year at 115mlbs. While below the recent three year average of 127mlbs, it did represent the second highest contracting year since 2012.
This broker emphasises secondary supply is “waning” and total un-contracted demand to 2030 is forecast around 400mlbs.
2025 finished with positive momentum
These contracting gaps and inventory constraints are now becoming increasingly visible in spot market behaviour, where relatively small incremental flows are having an out-sized impact on price.
Only two weeks into 2026, the uranium spot price has been off to the races, building on what was already a constructive 2025.
Industry consultant TradeTech’s weekly spot price indicator finished 2025 on December 26 at US$81/lb, up from US$75.75/lb at the end of November. Since the March low of US$64/lb, the spot price has risen US$17.70/lb.
Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) re-entered the market at year end, purchasing 100klbs on December 19 at US$81/lb following additional capital raising. In the final trading week of 2025, SPUT acquired a further 100klbs at US$81.70, followed by another 50klbs on December 30. The spot price finished the week ending January 2 at US$82/lb.
Two weeks later, TradeTech’s weekly spot price indicator advanced to US$85.15/lb as at January 16, up US$1.90/lb from January 9 at US$83.75/lb.
TradeTech’s Mid-term price indicator ended 2025 at US$86.50/lb, unchanged from November, while the Long-term price indicator rose to US$87/lb from US$86/lb.
At year end, Sprott held 74.8mlbs of U308 and US$58.9m in cash.
Thirteen transactions were completed in December, equating to 1.3mlbs of U308, with around half involving 50klb lot sizes.
RBC notes these smaller lot trades accounted for approximately 27% of transactions in 2025, up from circa 13% in 2024, reducing market depth and increasing spot price sensitivity.
In the most recent week, TradeTech recorded fifteen spot transactions, with the U308 spot price already up 3.8% in 2026 and 15.5% y/y.
The prior week saw nine spot transactions and three medium-term transactions, with no new demand.
That week was notable for the US Department of Energy awarding US$900m to Centrus, Energy Corp, General Matter and Orano to incentivise domestic production and reduce US reliance on Russian enriched uranium.
Stockbroker views & reviews
After the challenges of 2025 relating to Honeymoon’s mine life and extraction costs, Morgan Stanley has upgraded Boss Energy to Overweight from Underweight, retaining a $2.05 target price.
The analyst expects Honeymoon drum production to be 2% above consensus at 410klbs, with the company reporting 357klbs produced to December 10.
An upside surprise is flagged for the quarterly update, with updates also sought on the revised wide-spaced well field design and resource estimates at Gould’s Dam and Jason’s.
Macquarie, however, has downgraded Boss to Underperform from Neutral following the recent re-rating, noting the stock has risen more than 30% since December, implying a U308 price of circa US$100/lb. The $1.25 target price is retained.
Bell Potter maintains a Buy rating and $1.95 target, citing potential takeover appeal, while lowering net profit after tax forecasts by -24% for FY26 and -25% for FY27 on assumptions of a 10-year mine life and higher costs. Ord Minnett retains Hold with a $1.15 target.
Canaccord retains a Speculative Buy rating and lowered its target price slightly to $2.20 from $2.25 while concentrating on the decline in grade and costs.
Turning to Paladin Energy, Morgan Stanley expects production to slightly lag consensus during Langer Heinrich’s transition to full mining, with costs rising q/q. This broker expects realised prices to exceed consensus on stronger December quarter pricing and contracting activity. Overweight and a $12.05 target are retained.
Macquarie downgraded Paladin to Neutral from Outperform with an $11.10 target following a 49% re-rating since the equity raising.
Bell Potter retains Buy and lifted its target to $12.50, while Ord Minnett maintains a Sell rating with a $7.50 target.
Canaccord retains a Buy rating and $12.70 target, up from $12.50.
Lotus Resources holds Buy-equivalent ratings from Ord Minnett, Bell Potter, Canaccord and Macquarie, albeit with “Speculative” caveat from the first three brokers.
Macquarie highlights headwinds from financing, acid challenges and elongated converter accreditation timelines, but expects ramp-up in the March quarter and first shipment in June. Target prices range from 28c to 38c.
Deep Yellow is rated Outperform by Macquarie with a $2.25 target, while Bell Potter holds a Hold rating with a $2.00 target. The Tumas project remains on track for a final investment decision in 2026, with the Mulga Rock DFS due in 3Q2026.
Bannerman Energy is rated Outperform by Macquarie with a $5.85 target. Canaccord rates Peninsula Energy ((PEN)) Speculative Buy with a $1.03 target.
Short interest update
As of January 13, short interest obtained from ASIC continue to show Boss in top position with a 19.3% short position, down from 22.37% from a month prior.
Paladin is in fourth position at 12.5% down from 13.09% a month earlier while Lotus over the same period is up slightly to 8.31% from 8.03% in sixteenth position, and Deep Yellow in eighteenth position at 7.78% from 7.59%.
For more reading on uranium from FNArena see:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/12/23/uranium-week-boss-is-the-honeymoon-over/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/12/16/uranium-week-sprott-buying-asx-upgrades/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/12/09/uranium-week-ai-and-nuclear-converge/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/12/02/uranium-week-u308-catches-genesis-tailwinds/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/25/uranium-week-geo-politics-japans-restart/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 16/01/2026 | 0.1200 | 0.00% | $0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 16/01/2026 | 0.2000 |  5.56% | $0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 16/01/2026 | 0.0400 | 33.33% | $0.04 | $0.02 | $0.070 | 75.0% | |
| AKN | 16/01/2026 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 16/01/2026 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 0.5300 |  0.00% | $0.70 | $0.31 | ||||
| BMN | 16/01/2026 | 4.1000 | 6.20% | $4.07 | $1.76 | $5.275 | 28.7% | |
| BOE | 16/01/2026 | 1.7900 | 1.28% | $4.75 | $1.07 | 10.1 | $1.800 | 0.6% |
| BSN | 16/01/2026 | 0.0500 | 21.95% | $0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 16/01/2026 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.07 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 16/01/2026 | 0.2700 | -12.50% | $0.36 | $0.06 | $0.300 | 11.1% | |
| CXU | 16/01/2026 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 16/01/2026 | 0.1900 | – 5.00% | $0.21 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 16/01/2026 | 2.2100 | 5.91% | $2.49 | $0.75 | -56.4 | $2.083 | – 5.7% |
| EL8 | 16/01/2026 | 0.3800 | 2.94% | $0.50 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 0.0030 | 0.00% | $0.00 | $0.00 | ||||
| GUE | 16/01/2026 | 0.0800 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 16/01/2026 | 0.1800 | 0.00% | $0.25 | $0.04 | |||
| I88 | 16/01/2026 | 0.2700 | – 3.85% | $0.76 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 16/01/2026 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 16/01/2026 | 0.7900 | 2.78% | $0.88 | $0.55 | |||
| LOT | 16/01/2026 | 0.2300 | 0.00% | $0.26 | $0.13 | $0.320 | 39.1% | |
| MEU | 16/01/2026 | 0.1800 | 14.29% | $0.18 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 16/01/2026 | 17.5700 | 8.03% | $17.81 | $6.44 | -167.0 | $18.500 | 5.3% |
| ORP | 16/01/2026 | 0.0600 | -14.29% | $0.07 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 16/01/2026 | 11.8500 | 5.51% | $11.68 | $3.93 | 119.1 | $10.221 | -13.7% |
| PEN | 16/01/2026 | 0.9000 | 19.18% | $1.61 | $0.28 | $1.330 | 47.8% | |
| SLX | 16/01/2026 | 7.0100 | – 5.11% | $10.85 | $2.28 | -85.3 | $11.200 | 59.8% |
| TOE | 16/01/2026 | 0.5200 | 2.00% | $0.52 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 16/01/2026 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 |
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