ARB CORPORATION LIMITED (ARB)
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26/08/2026

3

Neutral

$22.50

15.03%

Citi raises its target for ARB Corp to $22.50 from $17.40 and maintains a Neutral rating.

The broker cautions that "evidence of a meaningful earnings upgrade cycle is still limited at this stage".

First Take: Citi notes ARB Corp's FY26 underlying profit before tax (PBT) of $118.6m beat consensus by 2.7%. It is unclear to the analysts if this includes any tariff refunds. The 35c final dividend also exceeded the consensus expectation for 31.4c.

Commentary explains second-half profit improved 5% on the first half, driven mainly by currency benefits and cost control, despite sales falling -4%.

US sales rose 10.2%, with further growth expected in FY27. The broker expects improving Toyota vehicle availability to support demand.

Australian aftermarket revenue fell -3.3% and OEM revenue declined -27.2%.

Citi sees a positive FY27 outlook but awaits evidence of improving sales growth.

Having returned from their conference call with management at ARB Corp, Citi analysts report FY26 was repeatedly referred to as the "cyclical trough", suggesting revenue should materially ramp up in FY27.

The analysts also point out there remains a disconnect between multiple tailwinds (as put forward by management) and the fact that sales trends weakened in 2H26 compared to both 1H26 and 2H25.

FORECAST
Citi forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 78.40 cents and EPS of 121.10 cents.
Citi forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 89.20 cents and EPS of 137.80 cents.

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10/08/2026

3

Hold

$21.80

11.45%

Canaccord Genuity maintains a Hold rating for ARB Corp with a $21.80 target price following weak July auto sales data (specifically related to ARB).

Tracking the top 11 models that typically drive aftermarket accessory sales, the broker notes a -16.4% year-on-year decline for July, which follows consecutive drops of -29.6% in May and -18.2% in June.

Despite headline weakness, the analyst expects a gradual second-derivative improvement in the coming months, primarily supported by Toyota accelerating vehicle deliveries to clear its order backlog alongside a more favourable comparative data period.

Due to an established two-month lag between vehicle deliveries and subsequent aftermarket accessory purchases, the analyst warns that current soft delivery volumes pose an earnings risk for the first half of FY27, even if gross profit margins improve.

Commentary concludes the anticipated sales recovery is more likely to translate into a tangible earnings benefit during the second half of FY27.